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INTC - Intel Corp.Week Ended: 1/27/01
Price 35.88 P/E Ratio 20.23 52 Week High 75.83
Last Week + 1.44 Earnings Date 01/16/01 52 Week Low 29.81
Picked At 32.19 Date Picked 1/18/01 Sector Technology
Current 35.88 Open 34.13 Change 1.38
Low 33.75 High 36.06 Volume 48,062,100

Company Description

INTC is the maker of semiconductor chips, supplies the computing and communications industries with chips, boards, systems and software that are integral in computers,servers, and networking and communications products. For the39 weeks ended 9/30/00, revenues rose 18% to $25.02B. Net income rose 60% to $8.34B. Results reflect higher unit salesvolumes of microprocessors and increased realized gains on the Company%s Micron Technology holdings.

Play Description

January 18, 2001

Intel sparked the technology stock rally this week by reporting better than expected earnings on Tuesday after the close. Intel reported profits of $2.63 billion, or $0.38 a share, which was a penny ahead of consensus estimates. However, Intel did warn that the first quarter will likely be at least 15% lower than the fourth quarter. Intel was cautiously optimistic that a global economic recovery could spark renewed buying of computers later this year. It is important to note that Intel rallied despite a somewhat negative outlook for the immediate future. When downtrending stocks rally on bad news that usually indicates that an important bottom has been created and the path of least resistance is back up. The rally could continue tomorrow due to the after hours rallies in Microsoft (MSFT) and Sun Microsystems (SUNW) following their earnings reports. INTC has found some major support at $30.00 and the stock has tested this price five times in the past couple of weeks. We are bottom fishing on this play because Intel looks very good on a risk/reward basis. The MACD is positive and a move above $33.06 could trigger a test of the 50-DMA at $36.19. A close above the 50-DMA could result in a more substantial comeback rally.

Picked on January 18th @ $32.19
Change since picked +0.00
Stop Loss @ $29.75


January 25, 2001

Intel was one of the bigger culprits in today's high technology stock decline. The leading semiconductor manufacturer said it will slash prices on some of its chips by more than 40%. Although this is business as usual for Intel, there was some concern over the size of the cuts. Many analysts had expected Intel to cut chip prices by 15 to 30 percent in order to spur demand. However, it appears that cuts of 20 to 43 percent are more likely, depending on the chip. Before the news, INTC was looking very strong, as the stock was able to climb above the major resistance offered by the 50-DMA of $35.44. Now it looks like INTC needs to consolidate its recent gains in order to gather the strength needed to make another advance. There should be very good support offered by the 10-DMA at $32.22. The next level of major support remains at $30.00. The MACD is still in positive territory and continues to confirm the comeback rally. It is encouraging to see that today's volume was only 45.6 million, while earlier in the week, when INTC was rallying, volume was hitting the 80 million + area.

Picked on January 18th @ $32.19
Change since picked +2.31
Stop Loss @ $29.75

January 23, 2001

Intelís bounce off major support of $30.00 is finally growing legs. The NASDAQ staged another solid rally today to close above the critical 2800 resistance line. INTC is likely to continue going along for the ride as momentum in tech issues grows stronger. INTC's solid move today was accompanied again by solid volume of 84.2 million shares. Intel's business prospects really have not improved that substantially but an absence of sellers coupled with the fear that one may be missing out on these "bargain" prices has fueled the rally. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) was only up 4.30 today, which makes Intel's performance relatively strong. INTC found some resistance today at the 50-DMA of $35.69. A close above this price on continued good volume of 70 million shares or more, could propel INTC to the next resistance level of $38.25. To that end, the MACD remains positive with a stable ascent. The RSI is still indicating that INTC has rally room before the stock becomes overbought.

Picked on January 18th @ $32.19
Change since picked +3.31
Stop Loss @ $29.75

January 21, 2001

A collective sigh of relief was heard from technology investors as several leading companies managed to post results that were in line and in some cases a little bit better than expected. Granted, expectations had been revised lower after a slew of earnings warnings in December. Intel posted profits of $0.38/share, which met expectations. Microsoft (MSFT) came in a penny ahead of estimates with profits of $0.47. IBM really helped the sector by beating estimates by three pennies with earnings of $1.48/share. In comments after their earnings releases these companies were mostly concerned about the current quarter but were surprisingly optimistic that the rest of the year should see renewed growth in PC sales. It is becoming increasingly likely that Intel has put most of its bad news behind it and that the current share price reflects this scenario. INTC has found major support at $30.00. Global economic conditions are probably not strong enough yet to spark a huge rally in INTC, however, an absence of selling pressure makes a northerly tract the path of least resistance for INTC. INTC was very strong on Friday, with good volume of 81.35 million shares traded. A follow through rally next week could take shares of INTC to a test of resistance provided by the 50-DMA just above $36.00. The MACD is slowly moving higher and the OBV and Money Flow are both turning up after putting in important bottoms.

Picked on January 18th @ $32.19
Change since picked +1.37
Stop Loss @ $29.75


Copyright 2001

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