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PLAY >New Updates Thursday, May 10, 2001
New Split Updates   New Candidate Updates   New Momentum Updates
(We update our stop losses daily at the CURRENT PLAYS page.)

New Split Updates

XTO - Cross Timbers Oil Co. $27.45 -0.50 (+2.62)

Our crystal ball was static free this week when we suggested that XTO might run straight to resistance of $28.75 once it breached its 50-DMA of $26.50. This is exactly what happened this week (to be honest the rally stopped at $28.47, but close enough). We have decided to protect our profits by raising our stop to $26.50. The next trade opportunity on this regional oil drilling concern could present itself tomorrow if the stock can trade above $28.75 accompanied by midday volume exceeding 350,000 shares. In the event of a pullback, another entry scenario may present itself if XTO descends to $26.58 and begins to tick up. At this point, XTO's technical indicators are neutral to slightly positive. The MACD is positive but is trading in a tight range. The RSI is suggesting that there is plenty of upside potential before it becomes overbought. The bottom line is that XTO may be stuck in a trading range. That said, at least we picked up coverage at the bottom end of this range.


Picked May 6th @ $24.83
Change since picked +2.62
Stop Loss @ $26.50
 
Interactive Chart Quote News First Call on XTO
 

New Candidate Updates

ASD - American Standard Companies $63.45 +0.87 (+0.95)

American Standard hit an all-time high on Thursday. Shares of ASD traded as high as $63.68 before settling back to a close of $63.45 on volume of 357,000 shares. The stock remains in a firm upward trend as the auto sector regains its momentum following a brief round of profit taking. ASD has made two consecutive higher highs coupled with higher lows so ASD could be able to break out on a major volume surge. From a technical standpoint, support is the 5-dma at $62.67 with stronger support at $61.82, the 10-dma. Resistance has moved up to Thursday's intra-day high of $63.68 and then possibly $64 or $65. Traders should be looking for entry points on a bounce off of $62.67 or a move above $63.68 on volume of at least 250,000 shares by noon. We are leaving our stops at $58.50 to limit potential losses.


Picked on May 6th @ $62.50
Change since picked +0.95
Stop Loss @ $58.50
 
Interactive Chart Quote News First Call on ASD
 


AYE - Allegheny Energy, Inc. $52.15 +0.31 (+1.15)

Allegheny Energy opened Thursday's session at an all-time high of $52.40. However, the stock pulled back from this high as the day wore on. Shares of AYE traded to an intra-day low of $51.60 before bouncing back to a close of $52.15 on volume of 391,000 shares. The company held its Annual Meeting on Thursday, but we did not get a split announcement. On the positive side, AYE has put in six straight higher lows and it continues to trend higher as the California energy crisis remains in the news. For now, AYE has support at Thursday's intra-day low of $51.60 with additional support at $51.20, the 10-dma. Resistance has shown up at Thursday's intra-day high of $52.40 and then possibly $53 or $54. A bounce off of $51.60 or a move above $52.40 on midday volume greater than 300,000 shares may be possible entry points. We are keeping our stops at $47 as downside protection.


Picked on April 29th @ $50.60
Change since picked +1.55
Stop Loss @ $47.00
 
Interactive Chart Quote News First Call on AYE
 


BMET - Biomet Inc. $39.81 -0.39 (-2.74)

Biomet has been under pressure all week. On Thursday, shares of BMET fell to an intra-day low of $39.55 before bouncing back to a close of $39.81 on light volume of 981,000 shares. The stock breached key support levels at the 20-dma and the $40 mark over the past two days. However, the downward trend is showing little conviction as the stock moves lower on declining volume, so a positive volume surge could be able to snap the downward trend. In the meantime, support has come in at Thursday's intra-day low of $39.55 with stronger support at $39.33, the April 25th intra-day low. However, we do not plan to stick around if BMET dips below $39.50. Resistance has fallen to the 5-dma at $41.22 and then the 10-dma at $41.78. Look for a bounce off of $39.55 or a move above $41.22 on midday volume of at least 900,000 shares before starting new plays. Our stops are holding steady at $39.50.


Picked on May 3rd @ $42.16
Change since picked -2.35
Stop Loss @ $39.50
 
Interactive Chart Quote News First Call on BMET
 


HRB - H & R Block Inc. $55.78 +0.55 (+2.40)

H & R Block has a new winning streak going. In fact, over the past week, it's strung together five consecutive winning sessions, breaking through resistance at $55.00 to a 52-week closing high of $55.78. This rally has been fueled in part by the company's announcement last Thursday that it expects to exceed the First Call consensus EPS of $2.91 for 2001. As for the technical picture, HRB has again claimed support at its 10-dma at $54.37. As for resistance, we don't see any until July 1999 highs of $59.00, which we think HRB could challenge soon given that its MACD has turned positive. Traders considering a position in HRB should look for strong volume, 250,000 shares or more traded by noon EDT, on a move through today's intra-day high of $55.96 or a bounce off the 20-dma at $53.21 before placing their trades. To protect our gains, we've moved our stop up to $54.50.


Picked on April 18th @ $52.85
Change since picked +2.93
Stop Loss @ $54.50
 
Interactive Chart Quote News First Call on HRB
 


TTC - Toro Company $46.70 +0.70 (-0.01)

Warm weather is making the grass grow, which means it is time for many to go out and buy some new lawn equipment. Toro is only too happy to supply homeowners with the necessary equipment to impeccably groom their backyards. That said, it has been a very slow week for the stock, as it develops a flag pattern between $45.88 and $46.97. The tight range has been accompanied by very low volume. In fact, today's volume posted at only 28,100 shares traded. Still, we are counting to regroup and regain its momentum. To that end, look for TTC to make its next move when it trades through either side of the flag pattern boundaries, especially if the move is accompanied by midday volume exceeding 50,000 shares. If TTC trades above $47.00, it could continue to move until it finds resistance at the 52-week high of $47.65. If TTC can close above $47.65 tomorrow, it may signal a more substantial move for the stock next week. Some of TTC's technical indicators suggest that the next move will be to the upside. The MACD is still positive, the 50-DMA is rising and the RSI isn't close to indicating an overbought condition.


Picked April 29th @ $46.25
Change since picked +0.45
Stop Loss @ $43.50
 
Interactive Chart Quote News First Call on TTC
 

New Momentum Updates

GTK - GTECH Holdings Corp $35.95 +0.45 (+1.95)

GTK has been able to make new highs over the past two days. Granted, the increase in share price has been modest; nevertheless, it's encouraging to see GTK move higher while the broader markets appear to be in a consolidation mode. The technical picture is reflecting something of a push/pull scenario. Momentum investors want to drive the stock higher, as it crosses into new high ground due to the lack of overhead resistance. Profit takers, on the other hand, keep driving the stock back down because the RSI is indicating an extremely overbought condition. Still, the trend is our friend, and we will enjoy the ride as long as it lasts and continue to raise our stop to protect our profits. Day traders may be able to make a quick profit if GTK trades above $36.80 tomorrow with first hour trading volume exceeding 100,000 shares. That said, a gap up to $38.00 or higher on tomorrow's open could result in another quick pullback.


Picked on April 22nd @ $29.79
Change since picked +6.16
Stop Loss $34.00
 
Interactive Chart Quote News First Call on GTK
 


HD - Home Depot $49.25 +0.74 (-0.34)

Home Depot was able to rally today following a report from the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi that retail sails for April were stronger than expected. The surprisingly strong numbers suggest that good weather inspired consumers do a little extra shopping. This good news follows reports earlier this week that lumber prices are ratcheting up, which should also help Home Depot's bottom line. All of this bullish news is coming just in time to get traders believing that HD will be able to beat consensus earnings estimates of $0.25 when the company reports its quarterly results on May 15th before the market opens. A nice earnings anticipation run could start in earnest tomorrow if HD can trade above $50.25 accompanied by first hour trading volume exceeding 2,000,000 shares. One may want to be patient about jumping on board if HD gaps up $1.50 or more on the open because a bit of a pullback may offer traders a better entry price. It is important to note that the RSI is telling us that HD has a fair amount of rally room before this indicator suggests an overbought condition.


Picked on May 8th @ $50.01
Change since picked -0.76
Stop Loss $45.88
 
Interactive Chart Quote News First Call on HD
 


LEA - Lear Corp. $36.02 -0.42 (-2.48)

Lear continues to loss ground despite Monday's positive news that it has inked a deal with Germany's BERU Group to jointly design and develop tire pressure monitoring systems for the global automotive market. We are beginning to become a little concerned because today's selling came on volume of 416,000, which was inline with the three-month average daily volume of 443,000 shares (past recent sell offs have come on below average volume). Adding to our concerns is the MACD, which turned negative today. At this point, LEA is supported by its 20-dma at $35.56, followed by the bottom of its recent consolidation range at $35.00. The good news is the stochastic is beginning to show the stock to be oversold. As for resistance, LEA could run into a little trouble at its 10-dma of $36.54 with bigger trouble following at its 52-week high of $38.50. Should LEA breach this level, though, there is little to slow it down until the April 1999 highs of $50 (though it could hit mild resistance at the psychologically-significant $40 level). Traders considering a position in LEA should look for strong volume, 250,000 shares or more traded by noon EDT, on a move through the 10-dma at $35.56 or a bounce off support at the 20-dma at $35.56 before placing their trades.


Picked on April 24th @ $36.20
Change since picked -0.18
Stop Loss @ $33.88
 
Interactive Chart Quote News First Call on LEA
 


WSM - Williams Sonoma Inc. $31.15 +1.10 (-1.36)

Retailers rallied strongly today thanks to a report issued by the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi that U.S. chain store sales increased by a stronger-than-expected 4.4 percent pace for April. More importantly to us, though, is that WSM went along for the retailing ride, adding $1.10 to $31.15. Today's advancement saved WSM's MACD, which looked set to turned negative. At this point, WSM has a first level support at $30.00, followed by its 200-dma at $27.64. Resistance can be found at the recent 52-high of $32.57. Traders considering a position in WSM should look for strong volume, 250,000 shares or more traded by noon EDT, on a move through today's intra-day high of $31.80 or a bounce off support at $30.00 before placing their trades. Before opening any new positions, keep in mind that we will be dropping WSM ahead of its earnings, which are scheduled to be released before Tuesday's opening bell.


Picked on May 1st @ $31.10
Change since picked +0.05
Stop Loss @ $27.75
 
Interactive Chart Quote News First Call on WSM
 

Play Updates Index

 


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