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PLAY >New Updates Tuesday, March 27, 2001
New Split Updates   New Candidate Updates   New Momentum Updates
(We update our stop losses daily at the CURRENT PLAYS page.)

New Split Updates

MBI - MBIA Incorporated $79.61 -2.09 (-1.07)

The interest rate environment for mortgage-backed securities remains strong and continues to keep shares of MBI positioned for more gains. On Monday, MBI shares delivered a nice rally, hitting an all-time high of $83.80. More importantly, the stock was able to close above its old high, which positioned us for a nice rally on Tuesday. Although this scenario didn't unfold to our expectations, MBI shares did pullback on light volume during today's trading session. With 541,900 shares crossing the tape, volume was held under the three-month daily average, as the stock gave back 2.55% to close at $79.61. The good news is that MBI was able to hold at its 5-dma ($79.62). Although, the 5-dma resides right next to current levels, it positions us for a sharp bounce as early as tomorrow. The short-term technicals also look bright, with both the MACD holding positive and the OBV at year highs. So, we'll now look for an upside move to encounter initial resistance at the $80 mark and then at the all time high ($83.80). Support will come in at the 5-dma and just lower at the 10-dma of $77.85. Consider entries when the stock breaks above resistance or bounces from support on good volume of 275,000 shares traded by noon. Continue to hold a firm stop at the $76.50 mark.


Picked on April 2nd@ $81.70
Change since picked -2.09
Stop Loss @ $76.50
 
Interactive Chart Quote News First Call on MBI
 

SBUX - Starbucks $41.75 -1.25 (-0.69)

SBUX did a good job yesterday of maintaining its value while so many stocks collapsed. Today, a bit of a chink was evident in the armor, but the stock is, nevertheless, showing some nice relative strength. SBUX appears to have already gone through its major correction and, having found some good support at $38.56, appears to be headed in the right direction and should eventually test its 50-DMA of $46.41. That said, we are a little bit concerned that SBUX closed today below its 200-DMA of $42.69. New positions should probably be avoided until SBUX can cross back over this important moving average. We would also be concerned if SBUX drops below today's low of $41.63, which is sitting right on a short term uptrend line. Longer term, we like the fact that the MACD has just turned positive. We are also encouraged that SBUX is scheduled to pay out a 2:1 split on April 26th. Therefore, we expect a split run to occur once the overall market can stabilize and begin to bounce.


Picked on March 29th @ $41.94
Change since picked -0.19
Stop Loss $38.50
 
Interactive Chart Quote News First Call on SBUX
 
New Candidate Updates

PFGC - Performance Food Group $53.63 +3.00 (+4.13)

We could hardly ask for a better start for our new play. PFGC opened yesterday at $48.75 and has enjoyed a nice spike up. Our initial analysis, suggesting that PFGC has a history of quick rallies following a consolidation at its 50-DMA, has come to fruition. As good as the start to this play has been, it may be time to become cautious, because PFGC also tends to retrace fast rallies quite quickly. Still, momentum traders may be interested in looking for another quick gain if PFGC can trade above $54.50 and accomplish this move with midday volume of 60,000 shares. Another good entry point may be around $52.50, which would be a 50% retracement of this week's move. Current technical indicators such as the MACD, Money Flow and OBV do point towards more gains for PFGC over the longer term. With that said, we could see a test of the 52-week high of $56.75 later this week if the broad market rally continues.


Picked on March 25th @ $49.50
Change since picked +4.13
Stop Loss @ $46.00
 
Interactive Chart Quote News First Call on PFGC
 


RCII - Rent-A-Center Incorporated $43.75 -1.56 (-1.38)

Rent-A-Center has been struggling to re-establish an uptrend after hitting an all-time high of $47.44 on March 21. On Monday, however, shares of RCII did see some strength and traded to an intra-day high of $47.13. This rally came within 31 cents of hitting the all time high before sellers pushed shares to a lower close at $45.31. RCII fell below this level on Tuesday, as the stock gave up 3.44% on the day. Shares did, however, give a sharp intraday bounce off previous lows at $43.13, to finish at $43.75. We would have liked for volume to come in under the three-month average, but the stock nearly doubled this number at 504,700 shares traded. Nevertheless, we are encouraged by the fact that OBV remains at year-high levels. Going forward, RCII has support at last Thursday's intra-day low of $43.13, bolstered by the 30-dma of $43.17. Resistance is Monday's intra-day high of $47.13 and then the March 21 intra-day high of $47.44. A bounce off of the 30-dma or a breakout above $47.13 on midday volume greater than 150,000 shares may present possible entry points. Our stops will remain firm at $42.25.


Picked on March 25th @ $45.13
Change since picked -1.38
Stop Loss @ $42.25
 
Interactive Chart Quote News First Call on RCII
 


RDN - Radian Group Incorporated $63.03 -0.49 (+1.13)

Aside from the all the negative news about a slowing economy, the interest rate environment for homebuyers remains strong and continues to keep shares of RDN poised for more gains. Checking out the chart, RDN delivered a nice rally on Monday, gaining 3% to close at $63.52. More importantly, the stock was able to break above stiff resistance at the previous high of $63.75 and hold ground above the 200-dma of $62.98. Monday's volume did top the three-month average, as 497,800 shares crossed the tape. In today's trading session, however, the stock did give back some of its gains, slipping $0.49 or 0.77% to close at $63.03. The good news is that RDN was able to hold above the 200-dma. Granted, the 200-dma resides just below this level, but it also positions the stock for a sharp bounce as early as tomorrow. The short-term technical picture also looks promising, with both the MACD and stochastic indicators issuing buy signals. Bearing this in mind, we'll now look for an upside move to encounter resistance at the 100-dma of $64.42 and then at the $65 mark. Support will come in at the 200-dma. Consider entries when the stock breaks above resistance or bounces from support on good volume of 250,000 shares traded by noon. Continue to hold a firm stop at the $59.00 mark.


Picked on March 18th @ $61.00
Change since picked +2.03
Stop Loss @ $59.00
 
Interactive Chart Quote News First Call on RDN
 


UHS - Universal Health Services $83.09 -1.63 (+0.24)

The huge rally among the Dow Jones Industrials (INDU) has placed Julia Roberts-sized smiles upon the faces of NYSE traders. Unfortunately, UHS, a major owner and operator of hospitals, has only made a modest gain. UHS was likely held back due to yesterday's announced acquisition of 80% of the fourth largest operator of French private hospitals for $75 million. Some may believe that investing in Europe right now is a dicey proposition. Nevertheless, the technical picture for UHS continues to look promising. The 200-DMA, which closed today at $81.06, is still providing excellent support. The 50-DMA provided resistance today at $84.81. We have to admit to a little disappointment in the fact that UHS soared above the 50-DMA yesterday but failed to maintain its momentum. Again, this was probably due to the announced acquisition. On the plus side, the MACD is now slightly positive. Perhaps a split announcement will get UHS moving forward again. We continue to like the prospect of adding positions if UHS can hold the $81.06 support. A move above today's high of $84.75, that includes volume approaching 400,000 shares by the close, may prove to be another good entry opportunity.


Picked on March 15th @ $83.50
Change since picked -0.41
Stop Loss @ $80.00
 
Interactive Chart Quote News First Call on UHS
 

New Momentum Updates

SFD - Smithfield Foods, Inc. $37.34 +0.97 (+2.57)

Smithfield Foods, Inc. has been moving higher thanks to Europes Foot-and-Mouth epidemic. On Monday, shares of SFD traded to an all-time high of $37.22 and a record close of $36.37 on heavy volume of 1.82 million shares, five times the daily average. On Tuesday, the stock closed at a new all-time high of $37.34 on volume of 1.08 million shares. SFD has gained momentum after a major breakout on Friday, so it could trade even higher as the market recovers. For now, support is at Tuesday's intra-day low of $36.20 with additional support at $35.50, the 11/25/97 intra-day high. All forms of resistance have been taken out over the past two days, so new resistance may come in at $38 or the $40 mark. A bounce off of $36.20 or a breakout above $38 on midday volume greater than 180,000 shares may be possible entry points. We are bumping our stops up to $35.25 to lock in profits.


Picked on March 22nd @ $32.25
Change since picked +5.09
Stop Loss @ $35.25
 
Interactive Chart Quote News First Call on SFD
 


THQI - THQ Incorporated $38.88 +2.00 (+4.38)

THQ broke out of its trading range after twelve sessions of sideways action. On Tuesday, the company announced that it was shipping the new "Blues Clues: Blues Big Musical" game for the Sony PlayStation and the new "Evil Dead: Hail to the King" game for the PC. Shares of THQI hit an all-time high of $39.94 following the news. However, the stock pulled back towards the end of the day to close at $38.88 on volume of 1.29 million shares. THQI is gaining ground and volume is soaring on the heels of a market recovery and improving fundamentals. The stock could see more all-time highs as we approach earnings season. In the meantime, support has moved up the 12/7/99 intra-day high of $38.06 with stronger support at $37, Tuesday's intra-day low. Resistance is now Tuesday's intra-day high of $39.94 and then possibly $41 or $42.50. Look to open new positions on a bounce off of $38.06 or a breakout above $39.94 on volume of at least 300,000 shares by noon. We have moved our stops up to $35 as downside protection.


Picked on March 25th @ $34.50
Change since picked +4.38
Stop Loss @ $35.00
 
Interactive Chart Quote News First Call on THQI
 

Play Updates Index

 


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