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PLAY >New Updates Sunday, March 25, 2001
New Split Updates   New Candidate Updates   New Momentum Updates
(We update our stop losses daily at the CURRENT PLAYS page.)

New Split Updates

TMIC - Trend Micro Inc. $8.44 (+1.69)

Trend Micro is a Japanese company that provides IT managers with anti-virus and other computer protection services. Just last week, TMIC announced that it has expanded its presence in the US by opening up a call center in Fort Worth, Texas. This should enable the company to better represent its American clients. If you were wondering, TMIC is not a typical play due to its single digit price and low average daily volume of under 50,000 shares. Although these facts make TMIC a somewhat speculative play, the stock is nonetheless going to split 2:1 on May 18th. The potential for a split run, as well as the nice relative strength that TMIC exhibited last week is what makes TMIC an attractive play. A move above the 50-DMA of $8.81, coupled with volume exceeding 50,000 shares for the day, could be the trigger for a nice rally to the next resistance point of $10.25. The MACD broke a long downtrend late last week, which is another good sign that TMIC could continue in the right direction. In addition, money flow is positive and the RSI leaves plenty of upside potential before the stock would be considered overbought.

Picked on March 22nd @ $8.38
Change since picked +0.06
Stop Loss @ $7.00
Interactive Chart Quote News First Call on TMIC

New Candidate Updates

RDN - Radian Group Incorporated $61.90 (+0.90)

Through a less restrictive loan qualification process, RDN has been able to gain more share of its niche market and increase its annual revenues by 30% over each of the past 5 years. On Friday, shares of RDN bounced sharply from an intraday low of $60.68 and finished the day higher by 1.50% to close at $61.90. We would have liked to see volume come in above the 3-month average, but RDN fell shy of this mark, as 354,000 crossed the tape. However, should the stock continue to make more gains in the upcoming week, then we'll expect buying interest to improve and generate more volume. In the meantime, we'll continue to look for support at Friday's intra-day low, with stronger support at the $60 mark. Initial resistance has moved up to Friday's intra-day high of $62.08 and then the 200-dma of $62.92. A bounce off of support or a move above $62.08 on midday volume greater than 250,000 shares may be possible entry points. Additional support from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) and the NYSE Financial Index (NF.X) would be helpful as well. Our stops will remain firm at $59.00.

Picked on March 18th @ $61.00
Change since picked +0.90
Stop Loss @ $59.00
Interactive Chart Quote News First Call on RDN

UHS - Universal Health Services $82.85 (-1.52)

UHS, a leading owner and operator of 47 hospitals across the country, survived what was clearly a tough week for stocks in general and health care stocks in particular. Last week's trade in UHS was characterized by the establishment of a tight range. After falling from its peak of $112.93 late last year, UHS is now consolidating above its 200-DMA of $80.81 and below its 50-DMA of $85.16. These prices represent the support and the resistance that should define next week's trading. A move above $85.16 could be the start of a nice breakout, especially if we see volume approaching 400,000 shares by the close. We would be very cautious if UHS fell below $80.81. With that said, the MACD is threatening to issue a buy signal. A nice start to this week for UHS would tip the MACD to the upside and would confirm a breakout. We also like the fact that the RSI has plenty of room before UHS would be considered overbought. New entries could be considered on a break above the 50-dma, now at $84.88, on volume that would put UHS on pace to do 450,000 shares for the day.

Picked on March 15th @ $83.50
Change since picked -0.65
Stop Loss @ $80.00
Interactive Chart Quote News First Call on UHS

New Momentum Updates

SFD - Smithfield Foods, Inc. $34.77 (+3.97)

Smithfield Foods, Inc. gapped up on Friday morning after First Union reiterated its "Strong Buy" rating and its $36 price target on the stock. Shares of SFD traded to a new 52-week high of $34.87 before pulling back to a close of $34.77 on heavy volume of 874,000 shares. The stock has broken out of its trading range on three times average daily volume so it could be ready to hit a string of new highs. The European foot and mouth livestock crisis may have also contributed to the rally, as the story continues to make headlines. In fact, Smithfield was specifically mentioned in Business Week as a benefactor to higher hog prices. Going forward, support has moved up to Friday's intra-day low of $33.53 with stronger support at $32.81, the 5-dma. Resistance is now Friday's intra-day high of $34.87 and then possibly $36 or $37. Traders may consider starting new plays on a bounce off of $33.53 or a breakout above $34.87 on volume of at least 130,000 shares by noon. We are keeping our stops at $29.75 as downside protection.

Picked on March 22nd @ $32.25
Change since picked +2.52
Stop Loss @ $29.25
Interactive Chart Quote News First Call on SFD

Play Updates Index


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