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Email Version, Section 1, Tuesday 05/29/2001
The SplitTrader.com Newsletter          Tuesday 05/29/2001 1 of 1
Copyright 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

  - Your World Leader for Trading Stock Splits on the Internet -

Posted online for members at: http://www.SplitTrader.com

To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:

http://www.splittrader.com/htmlemail/052901_1.asp
================================================================

In This Newsletter:
===================

Market Commentary - Tech Stocks Unravel
Definition of the Day
Tuesday's Split Announcements - None
Wednesday's Expirations
Plays - New - Updates - Drops
Wednesday's Play-of-the-Day - BJ

==================================================================


Market Commentary
=================

Tech Stocks Unravel

Paint drying, grass growing, and the time it takes Dante Bichette
to prepare for a pitch were all I could come up with when trying
to describe forever, which is about how long Tuesday's session
felt like, in my opinion. Coming back from a three-day weekend is
always tough, but when you come back and the news is almost all
negative, it makes the day even longer. Looking for some
excitement, the latest talks, which are now defunct, regarding
the possible $23 billion merger between Lucent (-11.4%) and
Alcatel or today's $6.3 billion Conoco (NYSE: COCa: -0.21)/Gulf
Canada (NYSE:GOU +1.99) just didn't do it for me. Does anyone
have a couple of those defibrillator paddles? This market needs
some help.

Looking to the day's economic news for signs of hope, it was
nothing but more mixed signals. For starters, the Conference
Board reported that its monthly consumer confidence survey rose
to 115.5 in May versus April's revised reading of 109.9. Good
news if you are a long-term player looking down the road, but bad
news if you were hoping for more aggressive rate cuts by the Fed.
The Street had been looking for a reading in the neighborhood of
111, so the news was certainly encouraging, but nothing to get
traders on the bid. Tuesday's second piece of economic data came
courtesy of the Commerce Department, which revealed that consumer
spending, the dominant driver of this nation's economy, increased
almost $29 billion in April, twice as high as the market's
"enlightened ones" were predicting. Once again, good if you are
looking 6-12 months ahead, but useless if monetary policy is your
focus. Adding to somewhat upbeat news, personal income also came
in strong, rising 0.3 percent, matching forecasts, though down
slightly from March's 0.5 percent bump.

So, on one hand, confidence is improving and Americans are
spending more, yet the private sector is still suffering from a
lack of demand for routers, telecom equipment PCs and chips. The
silver lining is that these companies continue to respond by
making the necessary cuts, though the cuts are coming at the
hands of their respective workforces.

It was ugly from the get-go on Tuesday, as Goldman Sachs' analyst
Laura Conigliaro got things started by ratcheting down her 2001
and 2002 EPS estimates on storage juggernaut EMC (-8.3%). The
company did say it was cutting 1,100 jobs, or 4% of its work
force, adding that it is beefing up its sales force to meet top
and bottom line targets, but investors ran for the hills, as
shares plunged more than $3 to $33.99 on above average volume.
Also taking it on the chin were shares of server/workstation
giant SUNW (NASDAQ:SUNW -1.80). Ms. Conigliaro cut her grow rate
target on SUNW from 15% to 12.8% and knocked 3 cents per share
off of her 2002 estimates. In its mid-quarter conference call
after the bell, SUNW ended up lowering its 4Q revenue guidance,
adding that EPS would likely come in between 2 and 4 cents per
share, below estimates of 6 cents. Weakness in Europe and Asia
were cited in the call.

The news sent technology issues across the board lower. The
networking, PC, telecom, Internet, and chip making sectors all
took it on the chin. Some of the noteworthy percentage losers
included BRCD (-11.4%), ITWO (-13.6%), JDSU (-9.8%), JNPR
(11.1%), NTAP (12.3%), RNWK (-18.9%), and YHOO (-10.2%).

As far as the details go, the Dow, in spite of Tuesday's selling
pressure, managed to end the day in the green, closing up 33
points at 11039, staying above the 20-dma (11001). HD and INTC
suffered the worst losses, while gains in MO, MRK, and IP helped
keep the old-school index above water. Financial and consumer
issues also showed strength, though the brokers lagged. The Dow,
after flirting with the 11,300-level just last week, now sits a
scant 39 points above 11k, down roughly 300 points in the last
three sessions. Breadth on the NYSE finished in favor of the
decliners, but only by a 17-14 margin. Volume was average, as
just over 1 billion shares crossed the tape. New highs, however,
continued to outshine lows almost 5-1.

Over at the NAZ, the tech carnage on Tuesday left the COMPX with
its worst performance in several weeks, down 76 points at 2176,
breaking below both its 10-and 20-dmas in the process. Immediate
support is now at 2100 and down at 2000. While the downgrades on
SUNW and NYSE-based EMC were the chief causes of Tuesday's woes,
there were a few other trouble spots. Shares of LPTH (-29.4%) and
CTLM (-17.0%) also fell sharply after downgrades. On the flip
side, good news regarding its HIV vaccine sent shares of
VaxGen(NASDAQ:VXGN: +5.00) sharply higher to $23.89. Finally,
despite announcing the acquisition of privately held Hydrocarbon
Technologies, shares of Utah-based chemical binding firm
Headwaters Inc. (NASDAQ:HDWR) rose 15.5% to $14.26. Breadth on
the NASDAQ, needless to say, ended clearly in favor of decliners,
as 25 stocks closed lower for every 14 upside movers. New highs
outpaced new lows 4-1.

Broader indices such as the S&P 500 Index (SPX: -0.8%), the
small-cap weighted Russell 2000 (RUT:-1.2%) and the Wilshire
Total Market Index (TMW) all gave back ground.

Weakness in the much of the equity markets, offset by the
prospects of further interest rate cuts, made for a difficult day
in the bond pits. At the close, the two-year Treasury finished
down 3/32 at 99-14/32, pushing the yield up to 4.31%. Five-year
notes dropped 5/32 to 98-4/32 to yield 5.06%. The Benchmark 10-
year note lost 5/32 to 98-4/32, yielding 5.49%, while the 30-year
bonds gave back 5/32, yielding 5.86%.

Despite the weakness in most sectors, there were a few bright
spots, namely Healthcare (HCX:+1.2%), Chemicals (CEX:+1.2%),
Insurance (IUX:+0.5%) and Banking (BKX:+0.2%). Those areas
suffering the worst were Software (GSO:-5.4%), Networking (NWX:-
5.2%), Biotech (BTK:-2.2%) and Gold (XAU:-1.8%).

The war for subs got a little hotter today. After the close,
Microsoft (-0.8%) said its MSN Internet unit has launched a $50
million advertising campaign to lure consumers from rival America
Online (-4.7%). Given AOL's price hike last week to $23.90 from
$21.95 per month, the national ad campaign is aiming to persuade
consumers to drop that service and sign up for MSN Internet
Access. Just think, last week these two giants seemed like best
buddies, announcing a software bundling deal.

Summary

With today's break below 2200 for the NASDAQ and the 300-point
retracement back to the 11,000-level for the Dow these past few
days, not to mention a neutral VIX at 24, the theory that better
days are soon coming seems to have suddenly taken a back seat.
Add to that, a Fed nearing or at the end of its latest interest-
rate cutting cycle, along with the market's typical summer
doldrums, and it's possible we may retest NAZ 2000 or Dow 10,500
or 10,000. Oh, by the way, second quarter earnings pre-
announcements sure seem to be starting early, especially given
the SUNW news after the bell. I'm not saying this latest pull
back it WILL continue, but it's something to consider. Tomorrow,
all we have slated is oil and gas inventories, but things ought
to heat up on Thursday (jobless claims) and Friday (employment).

Matt Paolucci
Contributing. Editor
www.splittrader.com


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Definition of the Day
=====================

Hot Issue

A hot issue is a newly issued stock that is in great demand.

For the complete definition, please go to:
http://www.splittrader.com/glossary/viewglossary.asp?glossaryid=176



Tuesday's Split Announcements
=============================

None



=======================================
Wednesday's Expirations by Payable Date
=======================================

State Street (STT) splits 2:1
Baxter International (BAX) splits 2:1


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=====================
SplitTrader.com Plays
=====================

The PLAY LEGEND:

SplitTrader.com Play Recommendations.

Updates are just that - updates on continuing plays
New plays are brand new for the newsletter.
Closing plays are plays that we feel have lost the advantage.

You will see:
Stock Symbol, Company Name, Closing Price, (change for the week)
Picked at date and Change since picked

Terms:
BoD = Board of Directors meeting
ADV = Average Daily Volume
dma = daily moving average

On the SplitTrader.com website we have very detailed profiles
for the stocks we play.  Please take the time to visit the site
and look up a stock's profile if you are interested in more
information.
================================================================


=========
NEW PLAYS
=========


NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS 05/29/01
============================

None



NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS 05/29/01
==================================

CIMA - Cima Labs Inc. $76.95 +2.15

Cima Labs has been steadily forging ahead since 4/27/01, when it
announced the U.S. launch by AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) of its Zomig-
ZMT orally disintegrating migraine headache compound.  Cima
specializes in producing products for pharmaceutical companies
that are based upon its OralSolv and Durasolv drug delivery
systems.  This enables patients to ingest drugs through fast
dissolving technologies without the use of water and without any
adverse tastes.  Turning to CIMA's chart, we see that the stock
has just broken out of a seven-month base pattern.  Today's strong
advance was a new closing high for the stock and judging by the
width of CIMA's base, the price target on CIMA becomes $107.
Traders wishing to initiate positions in CIMA could look to do so
on an advance above today's high of $75.35 on volume of at least
300,000 shares.  We need volume to come in strong to confirm
CIMA's strength.  Speaking of volume, we issue one caveat
regarding CIMA: volume can be weak at times, which adds to the
biotech stock's volatility.  Therefore, this is an aggressive play
that might call for half positions.  Our initial stops are set at
$67.95 to protect against a turnaround.

Picked on May 29th @ $76.95
Change Since Picked 0.00
Stop Loss @ $67.95

 



NEW MOMENTUM PLAYS 05/29/01
============================

None



=======
UPDATES
=======


SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES 05/29/01
===============================

APPB - Applebee's $43.26 -0.46

APPB lost ground on Tuesday, but found support at the bottom of
its current base near $42.40.  The good news was that the volume
on the sell off was even lighter than Friday's light volume of
325,000 shares.  Today's volume came in at only 230,000 shares,
which tells us that APPB may be content to trade around $44 for a
while before picking up steam.  Looking at the chart, resistance
has come in around $44.70 and then higher at $45.  APPB's MACD
still is decidedly negative so traders should wait until APPB
confirms its strength before initiating new positions.  That being
said, traders should wait until APPB takes out its old high of
$45.44 on volume of at least 500,000 shares before taking the
plunge into the "neighborhood restaurant."

Picked on May 15th @ $43.20
Change since picked +0.06
Stop Loss @ $40.50

 

===

PKI - PerkinElmer $69.70 -2.69

Traders were particularly unkind to technology stocks today and
PKI could not avoid the profit taking.  The pullback occurred
despite the fact that PKI issued some good news today.  The
company announced an expanded joint venture with MDS Sciex
(NYSE:MDZ) to develop revolutionary Time-of-Flight based mass
spectrometry systems.  These advancements should help PKI to
continue to lead in the development of high technology tools that
will advance the race for the creation of new therapeutic drugs.
PKI is scheduled to pay out its 2:1 split on Friday.  If the
market can reverse course and start to head higher later this
week, PKI could enjoy a decent rally heading into its split date.
Technically speaking, we were a little disappointed that PKI
dropped below the $71.00 support today.  On the plus side,
however, today's drop occurred with very light volume of 292,000
shares.  Therefore, there was very little conviction from the
sellers today.  Those looking to enter a new position in PKI might
want to wait for the stock to trade back above its 10-DMA, which
closed just slightly below $71.00 today.  One might want to watch
the MACD very closely.  This indicator could roll over and issue a
sell signal tomorrow if PKI slips in the early going.  On the
other side of the coin, one encouraging technical indicator is the
RSI, which had been indicating an overbought condition but has now
pulled back to support.  This implies that there is plenty of
rally room for the stock before it would be considered overbought
again.

Picked on May 17th @ $70.12
Change since picked -0.42
Stop Loss @ $67.00

 



SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES 05/29/01
=====================================

ASD - American Standard Companies, Inc. $66.00 +0.34

American Standard Companies, Inc. hit an all-time high of $67 on
Tuesday. Unfortunately, the stock could not hold onto all its
gains as the rest of the market sold off. Shares of ASD ended the
session at $66 on volume of 480,000 shares. The stock has put in
four consecutive higher highs on average volume so ASD may
continue to trend higher at a sustainable pace. For now, ASD has
support at Monday's intra-day low of $65.34 with stronger support
at the 10-dma, now up to $64.93. Resistance has come in at
Monday's intra-day high of $67 and then possibly $68 or $69.
Traders may consider starting new plays on a bounce off of $65.34
or a breakout above $67 on volume of at least 250,000 shares by
noon. We are leaving our stops at $63.50 to lock gains.

Picked on May 6th @ $62.50
Change since picked +3.50
Stop Loss @ $63.50

 

===

BJ - BJ's Wholesale Club $48.56 +0.25

We enjoyed a decent start to our new play in this major warehouse
retailer.  Although the advance was only modest, BJ was able to
establish another new high today.  In addition, the stock only
closed $0.11 below the new high.  Therefore, there is very little
overhead resistance.  A better day tomorrow for the overall market
could encourage momentum traders to drive the shares of BJ into
uncharted territory.  A new high, accompanied by midday volume
exceeding 375,000 shares, might prove to be a good opportunity to
go long.  One should probably be cautious about entering a new
position if BJ gaps up $1.50 or more on the opening because a gap
up might result in a pullback in the early going.  Several of BJ's
technical indicators are quite strong and point towards continued
gains for the stock.  The MACD is breaking out and the Money Flow
is outstanding.  OBV is also getting stronger and the only real
concern is the fact that is approaching a level that would suggest
an overbought condition.

Picked on May 27th @ $48.31
Change since picked +0.25
Stop Loss @ $45.10

 

===

BKH - Black Hills Corporation $56.96 -0.31

Most all the sector indices closed lower today, including the
utility stocks.  The Dow Jones Utility Index (UTIL) slipped 2.25
to 387.82.  The mild decline in utilities knocked BKH back a bit.
Our president is in California today to address the current energy
crisis but it is unlikely that he will announce any major policy
change.  This is good news for BKH, because it is unlikely that
the Federal government will attempt to initiate price controls
over skyrocketing electricity costs.  BKH is having a record year
for profits because of the surging demand for electricity.  BKH
tested the important support provided by the 10-DMA of $56.41
today.  New positions should probably be avoided if this support
fails tomorrow.  That said, a rally that drives the stock to take
out the resistance provided by the 52-week high of $58.50 might
encourage new investors to drive the stock even higher, especially
if a move into new high ground is accompanied by volume over
175,000 shares.

Picked on May 20th @ $55.94
Change since picked +1.02
Stop Loss @ $52.25

 

===

CEFT - Concord EFS Inc. $50.70 +0.10

Concord EFS, Inc. is breaking out after testing the 5-dma twice
last week. On Tuesday, shares of CEFT traded to an all-time high
of $51.40 before pulling back to a close of $50.70 on volume of
3.24 million shares. The stock has regained its upward momentum on
increasing volume, so CEFT could be able to ride the 5-dma to new
highs. However, the stock is up 14% over the last two weeks so we
may get a round profit taking before CEFT moves higher. Going
forward, support has moved up to Tuesday's intra-day low of $50.28
with additional support at $49.82, the 5-dma. Resistance is now at
Tuesday's intra-day high of $51.40 and then $53. A bounce off of
$50.28 or a breakout above $51.40 on midday volume of at least 2
million shares may be possible entry points. Our stops are holding
steady at $46.

Picked on May 27th @ $50.60
Change since picked +0.10
Stop Loss @ $46.00

 

===

HRB - H&R Block $60.15 +0.43

The weakness seen in tech stocks on Tuesday certainly had no
effect on HRB.  HRB advanced $0.43 to $60.15 and better yet, did
so on increased volume.  HRB traded almost 900,000 shares on
Tuesday, breaking its string of three days in a row of
decelerating volume.  Looking back, HRB hasn't traded over 800,000
shares since 5/4/01 (the day it started its latest leg higher).
We are obviously encouraged by the increased interest in HRB and
look for the stock to challenge its old closing high of $61.71
soon.  In addition, today's advance in HRB avoided a sell signal
out of the MACD and turned around the stock's plummeting OBV.
Traders looking to play HRB, could aim to buy the stock on a break
above $61.71 on volume of at least 650,000 shares.  Our stops
remain at $57.50 to protect against a reversal in momentum.

Picked on April 18th @ $52.85
Change since picked +7.30
Stop Loss @ $57.50

 

===

KRI - Knight Ridder, Inc. $55.75 +0.12

Knight Ridder, Inc. has been struggling after hitting an all-time
high last week. On Tuesday, shares of KRI hit an intra-day high of
$56.27 before pulling back to a close of $55.75 on light volume of
157,000 shares. The stock has fallen back into its old $54-$56
trading range and KRI is building a downward trend on below-
average volume. However, the stock has been able to hold the 20-
dma so KRI may have found a short-term bottom. In the meantime,
support is Monday's intra-day low of $55.45 with stronger support
at $54.56, the May 16th intra-day low. Resistance has moved down
to the 100-dma at $56.31 and then Friday's intra-day high of
$56.72. Look for entry points on a bounce off of $55.45 or a move
above $56.31 on volume greater than 250,000 shares by noon. We are
keeping our stops at $54 as downside protection.

Picked on May 20th @ $56.01
Change since picked -0.26
Stop Loss @ $54.00

 



MOMENTUM PLAY UPDATES 05/29/01
===============================

BUCA - Buca, Inc.  $25.00 +0.21

BUCA continues to trade in a tight range around the $25 level.
Although, with today's consumer confidence number coming in on the
high side, restaurant stocks might continue to get a boost higher.
This is because as consumers feel more confident about their
economic situations, they tend to indulge more in life's little
extras; like dining out.  Turning to BUCA's chart, we can see that
the stock has found good support near the 05/11/01 peak of $24.20.
Traders interested in starting new positions in BUCA should look
to do so if BUCA can close above Thursday's closing high of $25.15
on volume of at least 350-400,000 shares traded.  We are keeping
our stops at $21.30 in case BUCA rolls over.  We also note that
volume has been on the low side for the past two trading sessions.
BUCA's three-month average daily volume is 330,000 shares and
today it did only 150,000.  We need volume to pick up above
500,000 in order for resistance at $25.25 to be taken out.
Traders wanting to enter BUCA on a momentum move could look to do
so on a close above $25.25 accompanied by volume of at least
500,000 shares.

Picked on May 24th @ $25.15
Change Since Picked -0.15
Stop Loss @ $21.30

 

===

GTK - GTECH Holdings Corp $37.11 -0.29

GTECH started the week in solid fashion and even threatened to
drive through resistance provided by the all time high of $38.18.
Unfortunately, GTK could not sustain the early momentum and a
relatively weak overall market ultimately dragged down the stock.
The good news is that GTK did find support at its 10-dma which
closed today at $36.88.  Traders should probably avoid entering
new positions in this stock if this support at the 10-dma is
violated tomorrow.  That said, a rally above $38.18, accompanied
by midday volume exceeding 150,000 shares, might entice new money
to flow into the stock.  One negative is the fact that the MACD
did cross over and issue a sell signal today.  If the overall
market is sluggish again tomorrow, we would not be surprised if
our trailing stop of $36.40 is executed.

Picked on April 20th @ $29.79
Change since picked +7.32
Stop Loss $36.40

 

===

SCH - The Charles Schwab Corp $19.76 -1.04

Schwab's stock tends to trade with the broader market.  Positive
market trends, accompanied by good volume usually result in a
short-term surge in commissions.  Obviously, the reverse is true
as well, and with the S&P 500 (SPX.X) slipping 9.95 points to
1267.95 on Tuesday it was not surprising that SCH dropped a little
today.  We are a little concerned that SCH dropped below its 10-
DMA of $20.31.  This moving average had provided excellent support
for all of last week.  SCH will probably have to climb back above
its 10-DMA tomorrow before traders jump back on board in an
attempt to drive the stock to the $21.59 resistance.  The MACD is
still negative but a rally tomorrow could cause this technical
indicator to issue a buy signal.  It was a good sign that today's
volume was relatively light.  Consequently, Money Flow continues
to be positive and this fact should help bulls to remain positive
about the future price direction of SCH.

Picked on May 2nd @ $21.18
Change since picked -1.42
Stop Loss @ $18.50

 



=====
DROPS
=====


SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS 05/29/01
=============================

SDS - SunGard Data Systems $59.12 -0.73

SDS got caught in the NASDAQ downdraft on Tuesday and ended up
hitting our stop at $58.40 early in the session.  As it turned
out, SDS recouped some on the day, but better to have gotten out
at a small loss then have risked a debilitating blow to ones
trading capital.  We are dropping SDS tonight.

Picked on May 16th @ $62.00
Profit/Loss -3.60 (-6%) (Stopped Tuesday @ $58.40)
Best Profit +2.50 (4%)

 



SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS 05/29/01
===================================

AYE - Allegheny Energy, Inc. $52.85 -0.80

Allegheny Energy, Inc. continued to move lower on Tuesday. Shares
of AYE traded to an intra-day low of $51.80 on strong volume of
750,000 shares. We were stopped out at $53, thus we are dropping
this play tonight.

Picked on April 29th @ $50.60
Profit/Loss = +2.40 (+5%) (Stopped out Tuesday @ $53.00)
Best Profit = +4.49 (+9%)

 



MOMENTUM PLAY DROPS 05/29/01
=============================

None



WEDNESDAY'S PLAY-OF-THE-DAY
===========================

Tuesday, May 29, 2001
=============================

BJ - BJ's Wholesale Club $48.56 +0.25

Tuesday's Comment:

We enjoyed a decent start to our new play in this major warehouse
retailer.  Although the advance was only modest, BJ was able to
establish another new high today.  In addition, the stock only
closed $0.11 below the new high.  Therefore, there is very little
overhead resistance.  A better day tomorrow for the overall
market could encourage momentum traders to drive the shares of BJ
into uncharted territory.  A new high, accompanied by midday
volume exceeding 375,000 shares, might prove to be a good
opportunity to go long.  One should probably be cautious about
entering a new position if BJ gaps up $1.50 or more on the
opening because a gap up might result in a pullback in the early
going.  Several of BJ's technical indicators are quite strong and
point towards continued gains for the stock.  The MACD is
breaking out and the Money Flow is outstanding.  OBV is also
getting stronger and the only real concern is the fact that is
approaching a level that would suggest an overbought condition.

Picked on May 27th @ $48.31
Change since picked +0.25
Stop Loss @ $45.10

 


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