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Email Version, Section 2, Thursday 05/10/2001
The SplitTrader.com Newsletter           Thursday 05/10/2001 1 of 1
Copyright 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

 - Your World Leader for Trading Stock Splits on the Internet -

Posted online for members at: http://www.SplitTrader.com

To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:

http://www.splittrader.com/htmlemail/051001_1.asp
==================================================================

In This Newsletter:
===================

Market Commentary - More Ammo For The Bulls
Definition of the Day
Thursday's Split Announcements - APPB, KNGT, WMFI
Friday's Expirations
Stock Plays - New - Updates - Drops
Friday's Play-of-the-Day - HRB

==================================================================


Market Commentary
=================

More Ammo For The Bulls

Given today's trifecta of upbeat news, you'd think the market
would have held onto more of its early gains.  However, the
market slipped away into the afternoon, leaving most market
participants yawning and scratching their heads.  Volume was
light and trading was generally directionless.

The bulls initially cheered news from overseas that the European
Central Bank and the Bank of England both cut short-term interest
rates by 25-basis points.  The impetus behind the cuts was a
slowdown in the global economy and uncertainty as to when the
weakness would cease.  These cuts will not only boost sales of
haggis in Scotland, but should also serve to increase sales of
high tech equipment and software across Europe that will
eventually trickle down to the bottom lines of many U.S. based
tech companies.

In addition, we received word of shorter unemployment lines.
According to the Labor Department, the number of workers filing
for unemployment benefits fell by 41,000 to 384,000 in the latest
week.  The four-week average of first-time claims fell by 3,000
to 402,500 in the week ending May 5, which was the first down
tick in six weeks.

Rounding off the morning's bullish headlines were reports from
the major retailers that showed that consumers are not out of the
equation yet.  Same store sales from the major retailers came in
higher than expected.  Kohl's (NYSE:KSS) and Chico's FAS
(NYSE:CHS) knocked the cover off the ball with increases in sales
of 12.7% and 32.5% respectively!  If anyone shops at Chico's
please let me know what the allure is, because this is a business
model that is obviously paying dividends.

So why didn't these tasty tidbits tantalize buyers into the
market?  Looking around, it appears to be a case of more wait and
see.  We have major resistance still acting as a ceiling on the
major indices and the uncertainty over what the Fed is going to
do next Tuesday is still hanging over traders in the near-term.

There also doesn't seem to be the sense of urgency to pile into
stocks quite yet, which overall is quite healthy.  We would
rather see the train leave the station quietly rather than stoke
the coals too much and blow up just a mile down the tracks.

Just another appetizer that the bulls hope will get your mouth
watering: new offerings (in the form of IPOs, secondary and
convertibles) have jumped to $20.5 billion in the last 11 days.
The horned ones note that this is the best showing in new issues
since March of 2000 when $38 billion hit the Street in a little
over a week.  This of course is a sign that the market has at
least stabilized, since companies don't float new issues if they
think the chances of them tanking right out of the gate are high.

Today's Markets

The market continued its range-bound ways today, as it quickly
hit the upper limits of its recent trading envelope only to
settle back to more "comfortable" digs near support levels.

The NASDAQ (COMPX) popped 40-points at the open but settled back
to close down 27.77, or 1.29% to 2128.86.  As mentioned, volume
was on the light side of weak, with only 1.7 billion shares
crossing the tape.  New highs beat new lows 118 to 22.

The Dow (INDU) faired a bit better as a result of strong showings
from some of its members.  Retailer Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) was up
$1.83 to 53.42, defense contractor United Tech (NYSE:UTX) up
$1.98 to $78.73 and heavy equipment supplier Caterpillar
(NYSE:CAT) closed higher by $1.43 to $53.43.  The Dow closed in
the black by 43.46 to 10910.44.  Of note is the fact that the
old-economy index inched up to within 21 points of the magical
11,000 mark, only to be turned away.

The S&P 500 (SPX.X) also worked on busting through resistance at
1265 today, but it was doomed from the start because of the lack
of volume.  At this point we are going to need a 10-ton wrecking
ball (or 50-bps rate cut) to get through the wall of resistance
at 1265.

Stocks and Sectors on the Move

It wasn't the semiconductors, but the companies who make the
stuff that makes the semiconductor chips that moved higher today.
Confusing isn't it?  Well, not really if you consider that the
semiconductor chip stocks are considered early cycle tech.
Keeping that in mind, this means the semiconductor equipment
makers are early, early cycle tech; meaning the chip stocks can't
ramp up operations without first getting a tune up from the chip
equipment makers.  After all, all that dust that has settled on
the delicate machinery has to be cleaned up by someone.

I'm only half joking here, but Morgan Stanley Dean Witter was not
joking at all when they upgraded six of the largest companies
within the chip equipment group from "outperform" to "strong buy"
today.  They argued that downward earnings revisions are largely
out of the picture for these companies and that upward revisions
should start in earnest by early 2002.  The six upgrade
recipients were: Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT), ASM Lithography
(NASDAQ:ASML), KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ:KLAC), Lam Research
(NASDAQ:LRCX), Novellus Systems (NASDAQ:NVLS) and Teradyne
(NYSE:TER).

Of course Morgan's upgrade of the equipment makers wouldn't be
complete without a little friendly opposition.  The analysts over
at Merrill Lynch were quick to point out that they don't see any
upturn in orders for the chip equipment makers and that even if
they did, these stocks don't deserve higher valuations.

In other areas of the market, Novartis (NYSE:NVS) shares rose
$2.65, or 6.79%, to $41.65 after saying that its cancer drug
Gleevec was approved for sale in the U.S.  The drug is targeted
towards patients with a unique form of advanced leukemia who have
failed treatment with interferon, or a synthetic versions of the
body's own infection fighters.

Looking Forward, Always Forward

We will be watching Friday's economic reports closely and will be
monitoring how the market reacts to them even more closely.
First up tomorrow morning is the Producer Price Index (PPI).  The
PPI for April is widely expected to come in up 0.4% and the core
PPI is expected to rise 0.1%.

Following the important PPI is the even more important Retail
Sales figure for April.  Retail sales are expected to come in up
0.2%, but judging by today's same-store sales results, we might
be in for an upside surprise.  This would confirm that the
consumer is still spending, which is obviously important in
regards to an improved earnings outlook.

Speaking of retail and a strong consumer, many bulls are now
pointing to the retailers as "the sector" that will lead us out
of the woods.  Well, looking at the weekly chart below, it is
easy to see that the retailers have been amazingly average over
the past two years.  If this sector is going to step up and lead,
there is some serious resistance on the chart that says it will
be a while before retailers are the leaders that they once were
in early 1998 and early 1999.

Chart of the S&P Retail Index:



If retailers can lead us out of the depths, then the above chart
supports the notion that the ride higher will be a bumpy one.

I think the retailers have a shot at being strong over the next
year, but who really wants a sector whose momentum can be
destroyed by a single month of bad weather leading the market?
Not me.  I'd rather ride on the backs of the banks or the techs,
but we take what we can get.

As traders, we just have to look to where the big money is
flowing and listen to the charts.  And right now, it's the
retailers who are breaking out of bases left and right and
holding their own.  So on your next trip to the mall, look to see
how many empty parking spaces there are and ask yourself if the
next market savior can be blue jeans, running shoes and bath
towels.  Blue jeans, routers - makes no difference.

Happy Trading

Craig Seidler
Assistant Editor
www.SplitTrader.com





Definition of the Day
=====================

Retail House

A "Retail House" is a brokerage firm that tailors its business to
retail investors rather than institutional investors.

For the complete definition, please go to:
http://www.splittrader.com/glossary/viewglossary.asp?glossaryid=426


===================
Split Announcements
===================

Thursday, May 10, 2001, During Normal Trading

SplitTrader Candidate Declares 3-for-2 Stock Split

During morning trading, Applebee's Int'l, Inc. (Nasdaq:APPB)
announced a 3-for-2 stock split of the company's common shares,
payable in the form of a 50 percent stock dividend. On the payable
date of June 12 shareholders will receive one additional common
share for every two shares held.

For the complete announcement, please go to:
http://www.splittrader.com/announcements/051001_1.asp

===

Thursday, May 10, 2001, After the Market Close

Knight Transportation is truckin' out a 3-for-2 stock split

After today's closing bell, Knight Transportation (NASDAQ: KNGT)
announced a 3-for-2 stock split on its common stock, payable on
June 1st, 2001 to shareholders on record as of May 18th. This
event was first announced at the company's Board of Directors
meeting earlier today. This is the second split in KNGT's history;
the first was also a 3-for-2 split, announced in May of 1998.

For the complete announcement, please go to:
http://www.splittrader.com/announcements/051001_2.asp

===

Thursday, May 10, 2001, After the Market Close

After the market close, Whole Foods Market (Nasdaq:WMFI)
announced that its Board of Directors approved a 2-for-1 stock
split of the Company's common stock. The stock split will be
distributed on June 4, 2001 to all shareholders of record at the
close of business on May 21, 2001. Shareholders will receive one
additional share of Whole Foods Market common stock for each
share owned; the new shares will be payable in the form of a
stock dividend. After the split, approximately 54.6 million
shares of the Company's stock will be outstanding.

For the complete announcement, please go to
http://www.splittrader.com/announcements/051001_3.asp


====================================
Friday's Expirations by Payable Date
====================================

Pharmaceutical Product (PPDI) splits 2:1
Advanced Marketing (MKT) splits 3:2
SouthTrust Corporation (SOTR) splits 2:1





=====================
SplitTrader.com Plays
=====================

The PLAY LEGEND:

SplitTrader.com Play Recommendations.

Play-of-the-Day is our number one play recommendation for the
following trading day.
Updates are just that - updates on continuing plays.
New plays are brand new for the newsletter.
Drops are closing plays that we feel have lost the advantage.

You will see:
Stock Symbol, Company Name, Closing Price, (change for the week)
Picked at date and Change since picked

Terms:
BoD = Board of Directors meeting
ADV = Average Daily Volume
dma = daily moving average

On the SplitTrader.com website we have very detailed profiles
for the stocks we play.  Please take the time to visit the site
and look up a stock's profile if you are interested in more
information.
================================================================


=========
NEW PLAYS
=========


NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS 05/10/01
============================

None


NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS 05/10/01
==================================

STU - The Student Loan Corporation $68.20 +0.82 (-0.75)

Student Loan Corporation provides federally insured student loans
under the Federal Family Education Loan Program and through a
trust agreement with Citigroup Inc. Shares of STU broke out in
February after two years of consolidation in the $40-$55 range.
The stock hit an all-time high of $79.60 in front of the earnings
announcement on April 19th. STU sold off following the earning
report, hitting a relative low of $64.90 on Tuesday. The stock is
just beginning to recover, and we believe that it could continue
to move higher as the interest rate environment becomes more
favorable. We are also looking for a possible split announcement
out of the Annual Meeting on May 16th, or with the July earnings
release.  STU already has enough shares for a split, with 50
million shares authorized and 20 million shares issued. Going
forward, support is Thursday's intra-day low of $67.15 with
additional support at $66.60, Tuesday's intra-day high. Resistance
is Monday's intra-day high of $68.98 and then the 10-dma at
$69.65. The company is paying a dividend of $0.70 that will be
reflected on Friday. However, the PPI number on Friday morning
could override the effects of the dividend payment. Look for entry
points on a bounce off of $67.15 or a move above $68.98 on volume
greater than 15,000 shares by noon. A note of caution: daily
volume is extremely light on STU, so this play carries a bit more
risk due to the lack of liquidity. We plan to use tight stops at
$65 as downside protection.

Picked on May 10th @ $68.20
Change since picked +0.00
Stop Loss @ $65.00

 


NEW MOMENTUM PLAYS 05/10/01
============================

None


=======
UPDATES
=======


SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES 05/10/01
===============================

XTO - Cross Timbers Oil Co. $27.45 -0.50 (+2.62)

Our crystal ball was static free this week when we suggested that
XTO might run straight to resistance of $28.75 once it breached
its 50-DMA of $26.50.  This is exactly what happened this week (to
be honest the rally stopped at $28.47, but close enough).  We have
decided to protect our profits by raising our stop to $26.50.  The
next trade opportunity on this regional oil drilling concern could
present itself tomorrow if the stock can trade above $28.75
accompanied by midday volume exceeding 350,000 shares.  In the
event of a pullback, another entry scenario may present itself if
XTO descends to $26.58 and begins to tick up.  At this point,
XTO's technical indicators are neutral to slightly positive.  The
MACD is positive but is trading in a tight range.  The RSI is
suggesting that there is plenty of upside potential before it
becomes overbought.  The bottom line is that XTO may be stuck in a
trading range.  That said, at least we picked up coverage at the
bottom end of this range.

Picked May 6th @ $24.83
Change since picked +2.62
Stop Loss @ $26.50

 


SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES 05/10/01
=====================================

ASD - American Standard Companies $63.45 +0.87 (+0.95)

American Standard hit an all-time high on Thursday. Shares of ASD
traded as high as $63.68 before settling back to a close of $63.45
on volume of 357,000 shares. The stock remains in a firm upward
trend as the auto sector regains its momentum following a brief
round of profit taking. ASD has made two consecutive higher highs
coupled with higher lows so ASD could be able to break out on a
major volume surge. From a technical standpoint, support is the 5-
dma at $62.67 with stronger support at $61.82, the 10-dma.
Resistance has moved up to Thursday's intra-day high of $63.68 and
then possibly $64 or $65. Traders should be looking for entry
points on a bounce off of $62.67 or a move above $63.68 on volume
of at least 250,000 shares by noon. We are leaving our stops at
$58.50 to limit potential losses.

Picked on May 6th @ $62.50
Change since picked +0.95
Stop Loss @ $58.50

 

===

AYE - Allegheny Energy, Inc. $52.15 +0.31 (+1.15)

Allegheny Energy opened Thursday's session at an all-time high of
$52.40. However, the stock pulled back from this high as the day
wore on. Shares of AYE traded to an intra-day low of $51.60 before
bouncing back to a close of $52.15 on volume of 391,000 shares.
The company held its Annual Meeting on Thursday, but we did not
get a split announcement. On the positive side, AYE has put in six
straight higher lows and it continues to trend higher as the
California energy crisis remains in the news. For now, AYE has
support at Thursday's intra-day low of $51.60 with additional
support at $51.20, the 10-dma. Resistance has shown up at
Thursday's intra-day high of $52.40 and then possibly $53 or $54.
A bounce off of $51.60 or a move above $52.40 on midday volume
greater than 300,000 shares may be possible entry points. We are
keeping our stops at $47 as downside protection.

Picked on April 29th @ $50.60
Change since picked +1.55
Stop Loss @ $47.00

 

===

BMET - Biomet Inc. $39.81 -0.39 (-2.74)

Biomet has been under pressure all week. On Thursday, shares of
BMET fell to an intra-day low of $39.55 before bouncing back to a
close of $39.81 on light volume of 981,000 shares. The stock
breached key support levels at the 20-dma and the $40 mark over
the past two days. However, the downward trend is showing little
conviction as the stock moves lower on declining volume, so a
positive volume surge could be able to snap the downward trend. In
the meantime, support has come in at Thursday's intra-day low of
$39.55 with stronger support at $39.33, the April 25th intra-day
low. However, we do not plan to stick around if BMET dips below
$39.50. Resistance has fallen to the 5-dma at $41.22 and then the
10-dma at $41.78. Look for a bounce off of $39.55 or a move above
$41.22 on midday volume of at least 900,000 shares before starting
new plays. Our stops are holding steady at $39.50.

Picked on May 3rd @ $42.16
Change since picked -2.35
Stop Loss @ $39.50

 

===

HRB - H & R Block Inc. $55.78 +0.55 (+2.40)

H & R Block has a new winning streak going.  In fact, over the
past week, it's strung together five consecutive winning sessions,
breaking through resistance at $55.00 to a 52-week closing high of
$55.78. This rally has been fueled in part by the company's
announcement last Thursday that it expects to exceed the First
Call consensus EPS of $2.91 for 2001.  As for the technical
picture, HRB has again claimed support at its 10-dma at $54.37.
As for resistance, we don't see any until July 1999 highs of
$59.00, which we think HRB could challenge soon given that its
MACD has turned positive.  Traders considering a position in HRB
should look for strong volume, 250,000 shares or more traded by
noon EDT, on a move through today's intra-day high of $55.96 or a
bounce off the 20-dma at $53.21 before placing their trades.  To
protect our gains, we've moved our stop up to $54.50.

Picked on April 18th @ $52.85
Change since picked +2.93
Stop Loss @ $54.50

 

===

TTC - Toro Company $46.70 +0.70 (-0.01)

Warm weather is making the grass grow, which means it is time for
many to go out and buy some new lawn equipment.  Toro is only too
happy to supply homeowners with the necessary equipment to
impeccably groom their backyards.  That said, it has been a very
slow week for the stock, as it develops a flag pattern between
$45.88 and $46.97.  The tight range has been accompanied by very
low volume. In fact, today's volume posted at only 28,100 shares
traded.  Still, we are counting to regroup and regain its
momentum.  To that end, look for TTC to make its next move when it
trades through either side of the flag pattern boundaries,
especially if the move is accompanied by midday volume exceeding
50,000 shares.  If TTC trades above $47.00, it could continue to
move until it finds resistance at the 52-week high of $47.65.  If
TTC can close above $47.65 tomorrow, it may signal a more
substantial move for the stock next week.  Some of TTC's technical
indicators suggest that the next move will be to the upside.  The
MACD is still positive, the 50-DMA is rising and the RSI isn't
close to indicating an overbought condition.

Picked April 29th @ $46.25
Change since picked +0.45
Stop Loss @ $43.50

 


MOMENTUM PLAY UPDATES 05/10/01
===============================

GTK - GTECH Holdings Corp $35.95 +0.45 (+1.95)

GTK has been able to make new highs over the past two days.
Granted, the increase in share price has been modest;
nevertheless, it's encouraging to see GTK move higher while the
broader markets appear to be in a consolidation mode.  The
technical picture is reflecting something of a push/pull scenario.
Momentum investors want to drive the stock higher, as it crosses
into new high ground due to the lack of overhead resistance.
Profit takers, on the other hand, keep driving the stock back down
because the RSI is indicating an extremely overbought condition.
Still, the trend is our friend, and we will enjoy the ride as long
as it lasts and continue to raise our stop to protect our profits.
Day traders may be able to make a quick profit if GTK trades above
$36.80 tomorrow with first hour trading volume exceeding 100,000
shares.  That said, a gap up to $38.00 or higher on tomorrow's
open could result in another quick pullback.

Picked on April 22nd @ $29.79
Change since picked +6.16
Stop Loss $34.00

 

===

HD - Home Depot $49.25 +0.74 (-0.34)

Home Depot was able to rally today following a report from the
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi that retail sails for April were stronger
than expected.  The surprisingly strong numbers suggest that good
weather inspired consumers do a little extra shopping.  This good
news follows reports earlier this week that lumber prices are
ratcheting up, which should also help Home Depot's bottom line.
All of this bullish news is coming just in time to get traders
believing that HD will be able to beat consensus earnings
estimates of $0.25 when the company reports its quarterly results
on May 15th before the market opens.  A nice earnings anticipation
run could start in earnest tomorrow if HD can trade above $50.25
accompanied by first hour trading volume exceeding 2,000,000
shares.  One may want to be patient about jumping on board if HD
gaps up $1.50 or more on the open because a bit of a pullback may
offer traders a better entry price.  It is important to note that
the RSI is telling us that HD has a fair amount of rally room
before this indicator suggests an overbought condition.

Picked on May 8th @ $50.01
Change since picked -0.76
Stop Loss $45.88

 

===

LEA - Lear Corp. $36.02 -0.42 (-2.48)

Lear continues to loss ground despite Monday's positive news that
it has inked a deal with Germany's BERU Group to jointly design
and develop tire pressure monitoring systems for the global
automotive market.  We are beginning to become a little concerned
because today's selling came on volume of 416,000, which was
inline with the three-month average daily volume of 443,000 shares
(past recent sell offs have come on below average volume).  Adding
to our concerns is the MACD, which turned negative today.  At this
point, LEA is supported by its 20-dma at $35.56, followed by the
bottom of its recent consolidation range at $35.00.  The good news
is the stochastic is beginning to show the stock to be oversold.
As for resistance, LEA could run into a little trouble at its 10-
dma of $36.54 with bigger trouble following at its 52-week high of
$38.50.  Should LEA breach this level, though, there is little to
slow it down until the April 1999 highs of $50 (though it could
hit mild resistance at the psychologically-significant $40 level).
Traders considering a position in LEA should look for strong
volume, 250,000 shares or more traded by noon EDT, on a move
through the 10-dma at $35.56 or a bounce off support at the 20-dma
at $35.56 before placing their trades.

Picked on April 24th @ $36.20
Change since picked -0.18
Stop Loss @ $33.88

 

===

WSM - Williams Sonoma Inc. $31.15 +1.10 (-1.36)

Retailers rallied strongly today thanks to a report issued by the
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi that U.S. chain store sales increased by
a stronger-than-expected 4.4 percent pace for April.  More
importantly to us, though, is that WSM went along for the
retailing ride, adding $1.10 to $31.15.  Today's advancement saved
WSM's MACD, which looked set to turned negative.  At this point,
WSM has a first level support at $30.00, followed by its 200-dma
at $27.64.  Resistance can be found at the recent 52-high of
$32.57.  Traders considering a position in WSM should look for
strong volume, 250,000 shares or more traded by noon EDT, on a
move through today's intra-day high of $31.80 or a bounce off
support at $30.00 before placing their trades.  Before opening any
new positions, keep in mind that we will be dropping WSM ahead of
its earnings, which are scheduled to be released before Tuesday's
opening bell.

Picked on May 1st @ $31.10
Change since picked +0.05
Stop Loss @ $27.75

 


=====
DROPS
=====


SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS 05/10/01
=============================

SOTR - SouthTrust Corporation $47.10 +0.02 (+0.79)

SouthTrust Corporation has been gaining momentum over the past
three sessions in front of the 2:1 split, payable after Friday's
closing bell. It is our policy to close "split run" plays one day
prior to the ex-date, so we are closing SOTR tonight. However, you
may want to hold out for another day due to recent pullback. If
so, protect yourself with trailing stops and make an exit before
the end of Friday's session.

Picked on April 19th @ $46.96
Profit/Loss = +0.14 (+0%) (Closed Thursday at $47.10)
Best Profit = +2.24 (+5%)

 


SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS 05/10/01
===================================

None


MOMENTUM PLAY DROPS 05/10/01
=============================

None


========================
Friday's Play-of-the-Day
========================

Thursday, May 10, 2001
=============================

HRB - H & R Block Inc. $55.78 +0.55 (+2.40)

Thursday's Comment:

H & R Block has a new winning streak going.  In fact, over the
past week, this tax preparer to the masses has strung together
five consecutive winning sessions, breaking through resistance at
$55.00 to hit a new 52-week closing high of $55.78. This rally has
been fueled in part by the company's announcement last Thursday
that it expects to exceed the First Call consensus EPS of $2.91
for 2001.  As for the technical picture, HRB has again claimed
support at its 10-dma at $54.37.  As for resistance, we don't see
any until July 1999 highs of $59.00, which we think HRB could
challenge soon given that its MACD has turned positive.  Traders
considering a position in HRB should look for strong volume,
250,000 shares or more traded by noon EDT, on a move through
today's intra-day high of $55.96 or a bounce off the 20-dma at
$53.21 before placing their trades.  To protect our gains, we've
moved our stop up to $54.50.

Picked on April 18th @ $52.85
Change since picked +2.93
Stop Loss @ $54.50

 





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