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Email Version, Section 1, Tuesday 04/17/2001
The SplitTrader.com Newsletter          Tuesday 04/17/01 1 of 1
Copyright 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

  - Your World Leader for Trading Stock Splits on the Internet -

Posted online for members at: http://www.SplitTrader.com

To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:

http://www.splittrader.com/htmlemail/041701_1.asp
================================================================

In This Newsletter:
===================

Market Commentary - We'll Take It
Definition of the Day
Tuesday's Split Announcements - UHS, WM, SFD
Wednesday's Expirations
Plays - New - Updates - Drops
Wednesday's Play-of-the-Day - UNP

==================================================================


Market Commentary
=================

We'll Take It

While today's market action wasn't all that impressive at first
glance, things are starting to come together nicely behind the
scenes.  The NASDAQ held up well against Cisco's (NASDAQ:CSCO)
warning last night, which was good evidence that a positive
change in investor psychology is starting to wash over the bears.

The resilience of the market was even more impressive when you
consider the magnitude of Cisco's warning.  The company indicated
that its third-quarter revenues would be off a whopping 30% from
its second-quarter numbers and that earnings would be in the
"very low, single digit range."  The stock was down to $15.80
before recovering and closing down only $0.55 to $16.65.

Furthermore, the Cisco news did not spread to other areas of
tech, indicating that investors are through with the sell-first-
and-ask-questions-later mentality.  In addition, we saw
exaggerated moves to the upside in shares of Computer Associates
(NYSE:CA) when the software company told investors that it
expects fourth-quarter earnings of $0.47/share versus
expectations of $0.43/share.  I think this is the type of good
news that is going to make the shorts cover.  The risk is now to
the downside for the shorts, as any sign of good news will cause
these upside surges to occur.

And speaking of good news, it looks like earnings are not turning
out to be as bad as everyone was expecting this quarter.  Many
more companies were expected to report losses this quarter than
in past quarters, but that doesn't seem to be the case thus far.
According to John Bollinger, in a healthy bull market about 66%
of all companies report positive earnings per quarter.  Last
quarter, 55.2% of all companies reported positive earnings and
for the past year, 58.5% of all companies reported positive
earnings.

Now comes the surprising part.  Over the past week, 60.7% of all
companies reporting showed positive earnings.  Granted its only
one week, but last week saw companies from many diverse sectors
report.  So, we are not quite up to the 66% bogey as far as
showing real health, but we are well off the sickly 55.2% pace of
last quarter.  We'll take it.

Today's Markets

Today's trade in the major indices was marked by range bound,
sideways price action.  And according to traditional chartists,
this is precisely the type of price movement that defines the
tail end of a bear market.

The NASDAQ (COMPX) stabilized today, shaking off the volatility
that has become to be expected from the high tech index.  The
NASDAQ ended up adding 13.61, or 0.71%, to 1923.18.  Volume came
in at 1.8 billion shares and advancers beat decliners 2062 to
1713.

Things were a bit rosier over in the DOW (INDU), where components
Johnson and Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) and IBM (NYSE:IBM) helped with 2%
plus moves to the upside each.  The DOW ended the day up 58.17 to
10216.73 on good volume of 1.1 billion shares.  Advancers beat
decliners 1851 to 1174.

JNJ moved up $1.85 to $94.45 after it said profits rose 14% on
strong drug and medical device sales.  IBM moved higher by $2.95
to $99.70.  Throughout all the announcements concerning earnings
shortfalls over the past few weeks and months, IBM has not
uttered a word about revising estimates lower.  The real answer
to IBM's silence, however, will be known when it reports earnings
after the bell on Wednesday.

Treasurys made up lost ground today on the heels of encouraging
economic news.  The benchmark 10-year note added 11/32 to yield
5.21% and the 30-year bond added 13/32 to yield 5.66%.

The March CPI number came out as expected at 0.1% overall and
0.2% at the core, which excludes the volatile food and energy
components.  This was taken as good news by the market, as the
tame numbers indicate that inflation should not hinder the Fed
from cutting rates at their May meeting.  Although, looking ahead
to the April numbers, escalating gas prices should boost the
overall CPI.  It just remains to be seen by how much and whether
it will serve to deter Mr. Greenspan.

Stocks and Sectors on the Move

Earnings, job cuts and warnings were the theme of the day.  On
the earnings front we received word from the likes of Phillip
Morris (NYSE:MO) and Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), which reside within
the DOW.

Big MO released earnings of $0.95/share, beating estimates by a
penny.  Shares of MO advanced $1.25 to $47.81 on the day.

CAT, on the other hand, fell victim to the economic downturn as
it reported earnings of $0.47/share.  This fell a penny shy of
estimates and as a result, the stock closed lower by $1.00 to
$45.75.

Due to announce more job cuts this week is mobile phone maker
Ericsson (NASDAQ:ERICY).  ERICY will hand out an additional 6,000
pink slips on the heels of further weakening of sales.  The stock
lost $0.29, or 4.84%, to $5.70.  Coming along for the ride were
shares of fellow mobile phone maker Nokia (NYSE:NOK).  NOK lost
$0.80, or 2.99%, to $25.95.

Coming through with the double-whammy earnings miss/warning today
was Sprint (NYSE:FON).  The telecom concern came in with earnings
of $0.36/share for its first-quarter, while in the same breath
warning investors that it would fall short of second-quarter
estimates of $0.38/share.  FON lost $1.37, or 5.85%, closing at
$22.04.

Turning to after hours earnings reports, we have seen some
heavyweights report earnings above expectations.  While this has
spurred some definite buying interest on the ECNs, we shall see
if it spills over into Wednesday's session, as many of these
companies are hurdling already lowered bars and also are warning
of tough times ahead.

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) came in with earnings of $0.16/share, beating
First Call estimates by a penny even as sales declined in its
first-quarter.  Could the worst be over for the chips?  By
investors' reaction in after hours trade, it appears as if it is.
Shares of the semiconductor company were higher by 10% on
Instinet.

Joining Intel in reporting earnings that beat estimates was Texas
Instruments (NYSE:TXN).  TXN came in with earnings of
$0.18/share, beating lowered estimates by two pennies.  Shares of
TXN were lately up 5% in after hours trade.

Looking Forward, Always Forward

While the better than expected news out of some headline stocks
in the after hours will most certainly put a positive spin on
Wednesday's trade, we will be watching to see if the chips can
hold up, or if investors use this opportunity to sell into
strength.

Some of these companies have even said that they have improved
visibility going forward, which may be enough to firm up analyst
expectations and keep the downgrades to a minimum going forward.
As long as growth stocks can at least stabilize, investor
sentiment will continue to improve and sidelined money will be
put back to work.

Now, I'm not saying refinance the house and put it all into
Intel, but keep that watch list close.  Don't get caught up in
one-day surges in market enthusiasm, as extended rallies are
still not holding up in this market.  This means don't chase
stocks much beyond 5% above good, solid support areas in case
they come crashing back down.  Also, consider going into trades
with half the capital you usually would use and by all means,
keep using those stops.

Craig Seidler
Assistant Editor
www.SplitTrader.com


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Definition of the Day
=====================

Vertical Spread

An option strategy where the investor purchases one option while
simultaneously selling another option of the same class at the
next higher or lower strike price.

For the complete definition, please go to:
http://www.splittrader.com/glossary/viewglossary.asp?glossaryid=396


Tuesday's Split Announcements
=============================

Washington Mutual Banks on a 3-for-2 Stock Split

During regular trading today, Washington Mutual Inc. (NYSE: WM)
announced a 3:2 stock split, which will be paid in the form of a
50 percent stock dividend. The stock split is payable on May 15
to shareholders of record of April 30, 2001.

For the complete announcement, please go to:
http://www.splittrader.com/announcements/041701_1.asp

===

Universal Health Services Declares Split; Reports Positive
Earnings for First Quarter

After the closing bell on Tuesday, Universal Health Services,
Inc. (NYSE:UHS) announced a 2-for-1 stock split payable in the
form of a 100% stock dividend; however, the split is contingent
upon the approval of shareholders who will meet on May 23, 2001.
If the expected votes are received, the payable date will be June
1, 2001. UHS currently has 29.9 million shares outstanding and
10.6 million in the float. This will be the Company's second
stock split.

For the complete announcement, please go to:
http://www.splittrader.com/announcements/041701_2.asp

===

Smithfield Foods to Split Stock 2 for 1

After the market close, Smithfield Foods (NYSE:SFD) announced that
it plans to split its stock 2 for 1.  The company said its
directors agreed to recommend to shareholders at the company's
annual shareholder meeting Aug. 29 that they approve an increase
in authorized shares.  If approved, the company said its board
currently intends to declare a 2-for-1 stock split after the
annual meeting. The company currently has 52.5 million shares
outstanding.

For the complete announcement, please go to:
http://www.splittrader.com/announcements/041701_3.asp


=======================================
Wednesday's Expirations by Payable Date
=======================================

None


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**************************************************************


=====================
SplitTrader.com Plays
=====================

The PLAY LEGEND:

SplitTrader.com Play Recommendations.

Updates are just that - updates on continuing plays
New plays are brand new for the newsletter.
Closing plays are plays that we feel have lost the advantage.

You will see:
Stock Symbol, Company Name, Closing Price, (change for the week)
Picked at date and Change since picked

Terms:
BoD = Board of Directors meeting
ADV = Average Daily Volume
dma = daily moving average

On the SplitTrader.com website we have very detailed profiles
for the stocks we play.  Please take the time to visit the site
and look up a stock's profile if you are interested in more
information.
================================================================


=========
NEW PLAYS
=========


NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS 04/17/01
============================

None


NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS 04/17/01
==================================

THC - Tenet Healthcare Corp $46.98 +0.03 (+1.42)

Tenet Healthcare, which owns and/or operates 110 hospitals across
the country, has been on the move ever since it reported excellent
earnings on April 4th.  The company beat Wall Street's consensus
estimates of $0.58 by two pennies.  Third quarter earnings were
24% above the same quarter a year ago.  Although the current P/E
of 39.15 is pretty healthy, the stock, nevertheless, offers growth
investors one of the few opportunities for investment in this
market.  Consequently, these investors have driven THC to a new
high of $47.75 today.  A split announcement also becomes more
likely as the stock plows into un-chartered territory.  OBV and
Money Flow are both on the rise, as momentum buying appears to be
in full force.  One possible concern is the RSI, which is close to
a level that has previously sparked a little profit taking.  A
move above $47.75 tomorrow, accompanied by first hour trading
volume over 250,000 shares, may provide the next buying
opportunity.

Picked on April 17th @ $46.98
Profit/Loss +0.00
Stop Loss $43.88

 


NEW MOMENTUM PLAYS 04/17/01
============================

None


=======
UPDATES
=======


SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES 04/17/01
===============================

BJS - BJ Services Company $76.35 -0.15 (+2.09)

The tight supply on petroleum continues to keep the prices of oil
and gas strong and is also creating positive momentum in the oil
drilling stocks. News of potentially higher petroleum prices
helped BJS deliver another nice rally on Monday, as shares gained
as much as 3.3% on the day. With this advance, the stock was able
to reach the 50-dma, which positioned us for a potential breakout
on Tuesday. Although this scenario didn't unfold exactly as
planned, BJS shares did manage to break above this level on an
intraday basis on Tuesday. With 1,238,700 shares crossing the
tape, volume was held under the three-month average, as the stock
gave back just 0.20% to close at $76.35. Additionally, we were
pleased that BJS was able to hold ground above $76, which has
plenty of historical support. Although the $76 mark resides just
under current levels, it positions us for a sharp bounce as early
as tomorrow. The short-term technicals look good, with both the
MACD trending higher and the OBV holding strong. That said, should
BJS make another attempt at higher levels later in the week, we'll
look for initial resistance at the 50-dma of $76.76 mark and then
at Tuesday's intraday high of $77.99. Look for entries when the
stock breaks above either of these levels or bounces from support
on good volume of 800,000 shares traded by noon. We'll raise stops
to $75 to help lock in gains.

Picked on April 8th@ $71.75
Change since picked +4.60
Stop Loss @ $75.00

 

===

PFGC - Performance Food Group $54.06 +0.59 (+0.15)

PFGC has been uncharacteristically calm for the past two weeks.
That said, look for PFGC to possibly start moving higher as it
approaches its 2:1 split distribution date of April 30th.  PFGC
owns one of the better looking charts on the NASDAQ (COMPX).  The
impressive performance of this index today in the face of
potentially disastrous news from the technology front may create
some encouragement from the momentum investing crowd.  Some of
this cash should flow into PFGC due to the pending split and the
stock's strong technical picture.  The trigger for a strong move
is still a rally through the $54.50 resistance.  Trading above
this resistance may prove to be an excellent entry point,
especially if it occurs with volume of more than 80,000 shares by
midday. The MACD is still on the rise.  OBV and Money Flow are
both positive, but just like the stock, seem to be moving
sideways.

Picked on March 25th @ $49.50
Change since picked +4.56
Stop Loss @ $52.50

 


SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES 04/17/01
=====================================

EQT - Equitable Resources, Inc. $77.50 +1.02 (+2.59)

Equitable Resources continues to hit new highs. On Tuesday, A.G.
Edwards & Sons lowered its rating on EQT to "maintain" from
"accumulate" based on valuation. However, Prudential Securities
raised its first-quarter earnings per share estimate on Equitable
Resources Inc. to $1.90 from $1.70 and the price target on EQT to
$95 from $93, citing stronger natural gas production and prices.
The stock responded by closing at an all-time high of $77.50 on
volume of 205,000 shares. EQT is breaking out on heavy volume so
the stock may trade even higher in front of the earnings release,
expected on Friday before the bell. Until then, EQT has support at
Monday's intra-day high of $76.90 with stronger support at $75.79,
the 5-dma. EQT closed at an all-time high on Tuesday so new
resistance may show up at $79 or $80. Look for a bounce off of
$76.90 or a breakout above $79 on midday volume greater than
100,000 shares before starting new plays. We have moved our stops
up to $75.00, and we plan to exit no later than Thursday.

Picked on March 27th @ $67.20
Change since picked +10.30
Stop Loss @ $75.00

 

===

MKC - McCormick & Company $41.40 -0.56 (-0.30)

McCormick has been struggling over the past five sessions. On
Tuesday, shares of MKC traded to an intra-day low of $41.05 before
bouncing back to a close of $41.30 on heavy volume of 249,000
shares. The stock closed below its 20-dma on heavy volume and MKC
is starting to form a downward trend. However, MKC seems to find a
bottom at $41 so the stock may be able to stay in its $41-$42
trading range as the market searches for direction. For now,
support is Tuesday's intra-day low of $41.05 with additional
support at $40.65, the March 29th intra-day low. Resistance is the
10-dma at $41.99 and then the April 10th intra-day high of $42.50.
Traders may consider entry points on a bounce off of $41.05 or a
move above $41.99 on volume of at least 75,000 shares by noon. We
are keeping our stops at $38.75 to limit potential losses.

Picked on March 29th @ $41.43
Change since picked -0.03
Stop Loss @ $38.75

 

===

OMC - Omnicom Group $88.30 +1.30 (+1.80)

Omnicom, a major player in the world of advertising, received a
new high profile client yesterday that helped the stock get off to
a good start this week.  Goodyear Tire and Rubber (NYSE:GT) has
awarded OMC with its $60 million North American advertising
budget.  Every positive move for OMC increases the likelihood that
management will announce a split.  The company's last split was
announced in September of 1997 when the stock was trading at
$70.50.  OMC closed above the 50-DMA of $86.56 today and this
event is a good sign that more gains are in the offering.
Potentially profitable positions can probably be initiated as long
as OMC stays above $$86.56.  There is some resistance at $90.00.
Therefore, one may want to be patient if there is a gap up to just
below this resistance on tomorrow's open.  That said, a close
above $90.00 may provide a good buying opportunity in anticipation
of a continued move on Thursday.  The MACD is accelerating its
ascent and the Money Flow is making new highs.  These are two good
technical signs that OMC will continue to move higher.

Picked on April 15th @ $86.50
Change since picked +1.80
Stop Loss @ $80.00

 

===

SPW - SPX Corporation $95.17 +0.13 (-1.14)

To keep up with global demand for technical products, specifically
in storage area networks (SAN's), SPW's recent billion-dollar
investment in R&D should bode well for the company's future. It is
technically significant that SPW bounced off its 5-DMA of $94.88,
which has been providing good trendline support over the past
couple of weeks. A sustained bounce off this level will be a good
indication that the stock has found a short-term bottom and will
likely trend higher. In addition, it appears as if SPW is finding
further price support at $95. In the event of a deeper pullback,
however, we feel there is plenty of additional support at $92,
bolstered by the 20-dma of $92.46. We'll feel comfortable adding
to positions if SPW can bounce sharply off either of these moving
averages. A good entry point for momentum investors could present
itself if SPW moves above its 50-DMA of $97.85. This trade becomes
more enticing if it is accompanied by midday volume of at least
240,000 shares. We also like the fact that that the OBV is holding
strong.

Picked on April 12th@ $96.31
Change since picked -1.14
Stop Loss @ $90.00

 

===

TARO - Taro Pharmaceutical Industries $49.00 +0.50 (-1.65)

With a record $35 billion in sales of branded drugs going off
patent over the next five years, the market for generic drugs is
expected to rise sharply. This should be a major benefit for TARO,
which derives nearly half of last year's revenues from its generic
products. Turning to the chart, TARO shares gave a sharp bounce
off the 10-dma of $48.37 in Tuesday's session and advanced as high
as $50.50 before ending the day at $49. Volume fell significantly
under the three-month average as 90,300 shares were traded. Light
volume has been an underlying theme over the past several trading
days, which is what we like to see during a consolidation. The
technical indicators are also pointing to higher levels, as the
MACD and Money Flow continue to remain strong. We want to note
that resistance has started to form at the $50 mark and will hold
our initial barrier. Any moves higher over the next few days will
likely trigger a bullish crossover in the stochastic. New
positions could be considered if the stock breaks through and
closes above $50 on volume that puts the stock on track to meet or
exceed the three-month ADV of 148,181 shares by days end. Our
stops will remain at $44.00 to keep losses in check.

Picked on April 10th@ $49.45
Change since picked -0.45
Stop Loss @ $44.00

 


MOMENTUM PLAY UPDATES 04/17/01
===============================

ACI - Arch Coal Incorporated $35.50 +1.72 (+3.25)

Shares of the second largest U.S. coal producer hit new highs on
Tuesday, as Lehman Brothers released favorable earnings estimates
and set new price targets for the coal producing giant. In its
report, the brokerage firm lifted the 12-month price target on the
stock to $42 from $30 and re-adjusted 2001 earnings per share
estimates to 60 cents from 40 cents. Traders took the report
positively and drove ACI higher by $1.72 or 5.09% in today's
trading. More importantly, ACI shares were able to take out a
tough barrier at the $35 mark and close at a new all time high of
$35.50. The rally was backed by volume that came in greater than
twice the stock's three-month average of 591,700 shares. This
helped Money Flow turn sharply higher and positions us for more
gains later in the week. To that end, we'll now be looking for new
entries to be triggered when ACI breaks through today's intraday
high of $36.30 or bounces swiftly off $35 on volume that puts the
stock on track to reach the 3-month average by days end. We
recommend raising stops to $33 to lock in profits.

Picked on April 5th@ $31.50
Change since picked +4.00
Stop Loss @ $33.00

 

===

KMB - Kimberly-Clark $63.90 -1.50 (-1.63)

As we have stated before, the pullback in KMB is most likely due
to some portfolio adjustment by traders who no longer feel they
need the safety that KMB provides.  One excuse for selling KMB
today was the news that its Ballard Medical Products subsidiary
received a warning from the FDA for failing to follow rules in
collecting and reporting quality control data.  Nevertheless, KMB
did find support today at the critical 200-DMA of $63.00.  If this
support continues to hold it will likely signify the end of the
short term stock price weakness. Nevertheless, new investment in
KMB should probably be avoided until the stock can prove that the
short term downtrend is over.  The MACD is still negative and the
OBV is starting to slip.  If KMB can prove that it can stabilize
with some consolidation trading over the next couple of days, the
stock will become a more compelling buy.

Picked on April 1st @ $67.83
Change since picked -3.93
Stop Loss $62.50

 

===

UNP - Union Pacific Corporation $57.35 +0.25 (+0.37)

Union Pacific is having trouble breaking through resistance at
$57.63. On Monday, the stock traded to an intra-day high of $57.60
before pulling back to a close of $57.10. On Tuesday, the stock
reached an intra-day high of $57.47 just before the closing bell.
UNP has failed to take out resistance on five consecutive
attempts, so the stock may be stuck in a tight trading range until
we see the earnings report, expected on April 26th before the
bell. The company pre-announced an earnings surprise last week and
the news may be factored into the current stock price. However,
the company announced a new boxcar "shuttle train" that offers
one-call, door-to-door, multiple-stop service, inventory control,
and direct store delivery to points between the Pacific Northwest
and Southern California. The news came out after the bell on
Tuesday, so the stock may be able to break out on the news. Going
forward, support is the 5-dma at $57.07 with stronger support at
$56.64, the 10-dma. Resistance is the 52-week high of $57.63 and
then the 7/22/99 intra-day high of $58.31. A bounce off of $57.07
or a breakout above $57.63 on midday volume greater than 600,000
shares may be possible entry points. We are leaving our stops at
$54.50 as downside protection.

Picked on April 3rd @ $57.35
Change since picked +0.00
Stop Loss @ $54.50

 


=====
DROPS
=====


SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS 04/17/01
=============================

None


SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS 04/17/01
===================================

None


MOMENTUM PLAY DROPS 04/17/01
=============================

SLXP - Salix Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. $16.37 -0.06 (-0.08)

Salix has lost its momentum after hitting an all-time high of
$16.75 last week. On Monday, shares of SLXP fell to an intra-day
low of $14.50 before making a recovery late in the day. We were
stopped out at $14.75 so we are dropping SLXP tonight.

Picked on April 8th @ $15.06
Profit/Loss = -0.31 (- 2%) (Stopped Monday @ $14.75)
Best Profit = +1.69 (+11%)

 


WEDNESDAY'S PLAY-OF-THE-DAY
===========================

Tuesday, April 17, 2001
=============================

UNP - Union Pacific Corporation $57.35 +0.25 (+0.37)

Tuesday's Comment:

Union Pacific has been working all the live-long day, at least
working to break through resistance.  On Monday, the company's
stock traded to an intra-day high of $57.60 before pulling back to
a close of $57.10. On Tuesday, the stock reached an intra-day high
of $57.47 just before the closing bell. UNP has been trying to
take out resistance at $57.63 over the past five sessions.  The
company pre-announced an earnings surprise last week and the news
may be factored into the current stock price.  However, we think
the stock may be trying to re-gain its momentum.  To that end, the
company announced a new boxcar "shuttle train" that offers one-
call, door-to-door, multiple-stop service, inventory control, and
direct store delivery to points between the Pacific Northwest and
Southern California. The news came out after the bell on Tuesday,
so the stock may be able to break out on the news. Going forward,
support is the 5-dma at $57.07 with stronger support at $56.64,
the 10-dma. Resistance is the 52-week high of $57.63 and then the
7/22/99 intra-day high of $58.31. A bounce off of $57.07 or a
breakout above $57.63 on midday volume greater than 500,000 shares
may be possible entry points. We are leaving our stops at $54.50
as downside protection.

Picked on April 3rd @ $57.35
Change since picked +0.00
Stop Loss @ $54.50

 


************************Advertisement*************************
Tired of waiting on trades to execute?
Does your broker offer Stop Losses on Options?

Trade instantly with Stop Losses at PreferredTrade Inc.
Stop Losses based on the option price or the stock price.
Move your trading into the next millennium with PreferredTrade.

Anything else is too slow!

http://www.sungrp.com/tracking.asp?campaignid=2067
**************************************************************


**********
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**********

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