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Email Version, Section 2, Thursday 04/12/2001
The SplitTrader.com                    Thursday 04/12/2001 2 of 2
Copyright 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

 - Your World Leader for Trading Stock Splits on the Internet -

Posted online for members at: http://www.SplitTrader.com

To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:

http://www.splittrader.com/htmlemail/041201_2.asp
=================================================================

In This Candidate Newsletter:
=============================

Watch List
Plays - New - Updates - Drops
Monday's Candidate Play-of-the-Day -TARO
Weekly Play Results (04/09 - 04/13)

=============================


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==========
Watch List
==========

Splits to Watch

BAX - Baxter International Inc. $89.54 +0.54

WHY WE LIKE IT: Baxter is due to split its shares 2:1 on 5/31/01.
We believe that due to the overall strength in the energy sector,
a split run could be in order for BAX. Looking at the chart, BAX
has run into resistance at the $95 level twice before. The chart
could be either setting us up for a bullish triple bottom or a
bearish double top. A bounce off Baxter's 50-dma is probably what
the stock needs to do before going higher.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: A close above $95 on volume of at least
1.5 million shares will earn BAX a spot on our Current Play list.
THURSDAY'S UPDATE: BAX has lost all momentum, which means we are
darn closing to losing it from our Current Play list.   If BAX
doesn't start showing some signs of live by early next week, we
will drop it from our Watch list.  And should it lose its 100-
dma, currently at $87.75, before then, we will lose it sooner.

 


Candidates to Watch

AYE - Allegheny Energy  $47.27 +0.19

WHY WE LIKE IT:  Allegheny Energy has just come off a "V" bottom
and is consolidating at the $46 level on lower volume.  This is
generally healthy price action and gives the stock time to shake
out weak shareholders before going higher.  In addition, with gas
and oil priced continuing higher, earnings for the energy group
should be coming in on the high side this quarter.  Rounding off
our reasons for being bullish on AYE is the fact that the company
just announced that it would expand into the New York
metropolitan area in order to serve a greater portion of the
Northeast.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT:  We need AYE to close above its previous
high of $49 on volume of at least 400,000 shares before we will
shift it to our Current Play list.
THURSDAY'S UPDATE: This new addition to our Watch List continues
to build on its breakaway gap formed on Tuesday.  However,
momentum seems to be waning, at least according to today's anemic
volume of 287,000 shares traded. Still, we think that given
recent strength, AYE has a good chance of making our Current Play
list.  Should we be proven wrong, though, we will keep AYE around
only as long as it continues to stay above its 100-dma at $44.50.

 

===

BJ- BJ's Wholesale Club $43.45 -2.77

WHY WE LIKE IT: BJ has been forming a four-point wide base for
the last two months. It has found good support at the $44 level
and its 50-dma. The stock broke out of a 10-point wide base in
early January and proceeded to rocket over 12% in a span of three
weeks. With the stock taking a breather lately, we believe its
next stop could be the $55 level. Fundamentally speaking, BJ
seems to benefit whether the economy is strong or not, due to the
fact that it offers discounted, quality goods.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: We would like to see BJ close above
resistance of $48.35 on volume of at least 700,000 shares traded
before moving the discount retailer to our Current Play list.
THURSDAY'S UPDATE: A tough month for retailers in March did in
this Watch List member in.  For the day, BJ tank $2.77 to take
out its 50-dma and our stop at $45.50.

 

===

HRB - H&R Block, Inc. $51.0 +0.23

WHY WE LIKE IT: It's that time of year again and as everyone
starts to think taxes, money has a way of flowing into tax
services stocks. Making this potential play even tastier is the
fact that HRB recently reaffirmed its year 2001 earnings (indeed
rare in these troubled times) and stated that revenues for
January and February are up 11.6% over last year. The chart is
telling us the same rosy story. HRB gapped higher on 2/28/01,
proceeded to make a new high, then came back to fill its gap on
lower volume. This is very healthy price action. In addition, the
stock found support at its 40-dma and looks like it is ready to
gear up for another run higher.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: We would like to see HRB close above its
old yearly high of $52.39 on volume of at least 550,000 shares
before we add the tax service provider to our Current Play list.
THURSDAY'S UPDATE: HRB traded relatively flat today, though it
did manage to build on its bullish hammer on the chart, which is
generally a sign that buying might spill over into the next week.
To that end, the MACD looks set to turn positive, which could
mean that HRB may make a go for the Current Play list.  However,
should HRB suddenly fall apart, we will watch it fall only as far
as its 40-dma at $48.89.

 


Momentum Stocks to Watch

BLL- Ball Corporation $45.66 -0.56

WHY WE LIKE IT: While the market has been selling off on a
regular basis, Ball has been slowly but surely trending higher.
This tells us that buyers are stepping in despite the market
"noise". In addition, Ball resides in the aerospace arena and has
been awarded additional long-term contracts that should serve to
stabilize earnings going forward. The stock's RSI is also well
above 50, which again tells us that when the market turns, BLL
should rocket.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: We need to see Ball bounce and hold
above $48 on trading volume of at least 180,000 shares before we
will add the aerospace stock to our Current Play list.
THURSDAY'S UPDATE: BLL is another one of our Watch List stocks
that is slowly sinking into the abyss.  A couple of days ago we
would have bet the farm this thing was to make our Current Play
list.  Unfortunately, at this point momentum has fallen off and
the MACD is set to go negative, so we think that there is a good
chance that BLL will hit our stop at $44.12 sometime next week.

 

===

LNCR - Lincare Holdings, Inc.  $56.40 +0.77

WHY WE LIKE IT:  The supplier of oxygen to home patients has been
consolidating in a symmetrical triangle formation.  It has coiled
tighter over the past two months, with its daily range rarely
exceeding $3.00.  This is a classic sign that a directional shift
is close at hand.  We of course are anticipating a move to the
upside, especially considering the fact that LNCR's 10-dma seems
to be offering good support.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT:  We would like to see LNCR close above
$61.25 on volume of at least 640,000 shares before we will move
it to our Current Play list.
THURSDAY'S UPDATE: LNCR has been coiling around the $56.00 level
for the past week, and today was no exception.  Given the recent
strength in healthcare stocks, we are looking for LNCR to
eventually break this consolidation to move towards our trigger
price of $61.25.  To that end, the MACD and On Balance Volume are
showing positive trends.  Should we be proven wrong, though, we
will keep LNCR aboard only as long as it can continue to close
above its 100-dma at $52.75.

 

===

SCIO- Scios, Inc. $22.40 +0.34

WHY WE LIKE IT: Although the Biotech Index (BTK.X) has been under
pressure since last November, our new Watch List stock, SCIO has
been steadily rising. Along with this display of superior
relative strength, SCIO has built a nice four-month base pattern
and looks poised to challenge resistance yet again. Since 2/23
the stock has been trending higher on rising volume and has
broken through its 50-dma.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT: We need to see SCIO close above $24 on
volume of at least 550,000 shares before we will clear a spot on
our Current Play list for this bio-pharmaceutical company.
THURSDAY'S UPDATE: On Tuesday we said that we would give SCIO
until the end of the week to get its act in gear.  It didn't, so
we are giving it the boot today.

 


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=====================
SplitTrader.com Plays
=====================

The PLAY LEGEND:

SplitTrader.com Candidate Play Recommendations.

Candidate Play-of-the-Day is our number one candidate
recommendation for the following trading day.
Updates are just that - updates on continuing plays
New plays are brand new for the newsletter.
Drops are closing plays that we feel have lost the advantage.

You will see:
Stock Symbol, Company Name, Closing Price, (change for the week)
Picked at date and Change since picked

Terms:
BoD = Board of Directors meeting
ADV = Average Daily Volume
dma = daily moving average

At the SplitTrader.com website, we have comprehensive profiles
for each stock that we are playing or have played in the past, as
well as hundreds of others. Please take the time to visit the site
to view the profile of the stock(s) you wish to learn more about.
=================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========


NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS 04/12/01
============================

None



NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS 04/12/01
==================================

OMC - Omnicom Group $86.50 +2.30 +5.35

Omnicom, which is a major operator of advertising agencies as
well as a provider of a slew of services that include market
research, sales promotion and public relations, enjoyed a solid
rally last week.  OMC is expected to post good profits of $0.51 a
share on Tuesday, April 24th before the market opens.  If OMC
meets these estimates, it will have increased its profits by 13%
over the same quarter a year ago.  Some of last week's rally can
be attributed to the fact that Lehman Brothers recently initiated
coverage of OMC with a Buy rating.  OMC is also a strong split
candidate.  The company's last split was over three-and-a-half
years ago and was announced when the stock was trading at a price
$16.00 below Thursday's close.  Thursday's rally saw OMC close
only six cents below its 50-DMA of $86.56.  A follow through
above this important resistance on Monday may provide a good
entry signal.  However, one should be cautious if OMC gaps up two
or more points on the open.  This scenario would likely result in
a pullback that may offer traders a better entry price later in
the session. A sustained rally should eventually find resistance
at February's high of $95.44.  The MACD did issue a buy signal
last week.  The RSI has plenty of upside room before this
indicator would signal an overbought condition. Money Flow has
been outstanding and is indicating the likelihood for continued
gains.

Picked on April 12th @ $86.50
Change since picked +0.00
Stop Loss @ $80.00

 

===

SPW - SPX Corporation $96.31 +1.51 (+5.61)

SPX produces automotive specialty service tools and equipment for
franchised and independent vehicle dealers. After a complete
makeover in 1996, the company revamped its business intent from
being merely a supplier of automotive products to providing
integrated vehicle service solutions. From this period, annual
earnings for the company grew sharply, gaining 24% for each of
the past five years. Although SPX has fallen significantly from
its all time highs, the company has never declared a stock split,
though we expect one could be forthcoming given its high stock
price. We also like the fact that the stock is coming off a sharp
"V" bottom formation, which managed to take out the intermediate
high of $95.70 in today's session. The technical indicators also
paint a bullish picture, with a extended crossover in the
stochastic and the MACD issuing a mid-week buy signal. So,
bearing all this in mind, should shares continue to show upside
strength in the week ahead, we'll look for resistance to occur at
the 50-dma of $98.06, followed by a stiffer challenge at the
century mark. Support will come at the $95 mark. Look to time
entries when SPW bounces off support or breaks above the 50-dma
on volume of at least 240,000 shares traded by midday. We'll set
our initial stop at $90 to minimize our downside risk.

Picked on April 12th@ $96.31
Change since picked 0.00
Stop Loss @ $90.00

 



NEW MOMENTUM PLAYS 04/12/01
============================

None



=======
UPDATES
=======


SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES 04/12/01
===============================

BJS - BJ Services Company $74.26 +1.66 (+2.51)

The two "buy" ratings from J.P. Morgan and Jefferies & Co. that
we reported Wednesday may have been the catalyst behind today's
2.29% rally in BJ Services. Adding more fuel to the fire was the
AMEX Oil Service Index (OSX), which rose 2.16 points, or 1.85%,
to close at $549.58. But whatever it was that created the rally,
we feel the stock remains poised for higher levels in the
upcoming week. The technical indicators certainly support such an
argument, with the MACD starting to trend higher and the
stochastic issuing a buy signal on the day. We also like the fact
that shares came within 1 cent of hitting the 4/10 high of $75.
Three intraday highs in a row at this level, however, tell us
that there is ample resistance at this point. With that said, the
$75 mark will remain our initial resistance, trailed by a more
difficult challenge at the $80 mark. The 20-dma of $72.35 has
been holding firm support over this same period and should
present us with a good base. So, with this in mind, traders
looking for additional entry points should wait for a sharp break
through resistance at the $75 high or a bounce off the 5-dma of
$80.90. We'll continue to hold our stop at $70.

Picked on April 8th@ $71.75
Change since picked +2.51
Stop Loss @ $70.00

 

===

PFGC - Performance Food Group $53.91 +0.95 (+0.41)

PFGC held on to its value, and then some, during a week that was
characterized by a monster technology rally.  The highlight of
the week for PFGC was Wednesday's split announcement.  The 2:1
split has a payable date of April 30th.  Obviously, PFGC now
moves from our Split Candidate list to our Split Run list.  We
fully expect PFGC to stage a nice rally starting Monday if the
market can maintain its strength and the bulls broaden their
focus to more than just technology stocks.  However, the $54.50
level continues to offer PFGC some stubborn resistance.  Look for
PFGC to really start moving if it can get past this resistance on
Monday and accomplish this feat with midday volume approaching
90,000 shares.  You might want to wait to add to positions if
PFGC gaps up to the next resistance level of $56.75 on Monday.
In the event of a pullback, traders may still be comfortable
adding to positions if PFGC can stay above the support offered by
last week's low print of $53.00.  Although the Money Flow pulled
back a bit towards the end of last week, the MACD and OBV are
both solid and suggest that there is another positive run in
PFGC's future.

Picked on March 25th @ $49.50
Change since picked +4.41
Stop Loss @ $52.50

 



SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES 04/12/01
=====================================

EQT - Equitable Resources, Inc. $74.91 +0.46 (+2.46)

Equitable Resources has cooled off over the past two sessions
after hitting an all-time high of $75.63 earlier in the week. On
Thursday, shares of EQT fell to an intra-day low of $73.95 before
bouncing back to close at $74.91 on volume of 138,000 shares. The
energy sector has lost some of its momentum and EQT was ripe for
profit taking so we are not surprised to see it take a step back.
However, the stock remains in a firm upward trend so it could
break out to new highs as we approach its earnings release on
April 20th before the bell. From a technical standpoint, EQT has
support at Thursday's intra-day low of $73.95 with additional
support at $72.47, the 10-dma. Resistance has come in at the all-
time high of $75.63 and then possibly $77 or $78. Traders may
consider starting new plays on a bounce off of $73.95 or a
breakout above $75.63 on volume of at least 100,000 shares by
noon. We are keeping our stops at $72.25, just under the 10-dma.

Picked on March 27th @ $67.20
Change since picked +7.71
Stop Loss @ $72.25

 

===

MKC - McCormick & Company $41.70 -0.40 (-0.45)

MKC has been selling off as investors begin to rotate out of
safety and back into tech issues. On Thursday, shares of MKC
traded to an intra-day low of $41.35 before recovering late in
the session. The stock ended the day at $41.70 on light volume of
93,800 shares. MKC has made three consecutive lower highs on
less-than-average volume and MKC closed below the 10-dma for the
first time since March 23rd. On the positive side, the stock was
able to bounce off of the 20-dma in the past two sessions. Going
forward, support is the 20-dma at $41.27 with stronger support at
$40.95, Wednesday's intra-day low. Resistance has fallen to the
10-dma at $42.06 and then Tuesday's intra-day high of $42.50. A
bounce off of $41.27 or a move above $42.06 on midday volume
greater than 75,000 shares may be possible entry points. Our
stops remain at $38.75 as downside protection.

Picked on March 29th @ $41.43
Change since picked +0.27
Stop Loss @ $38.75

 

===

TARO - Taro Pharmaceutical Industries $50.65 -0.14 (+3.90)

Prospects for Taro have become noticeably brighter as of late.
Over the past year, the company received seven FDA approvals and
saw annual revenues exceed the $100 million mark for the first
time ever. In Thursday trading, shares of TARO did give back a
little ground from Wednesday's sharp rally and closed the session
at $50.65, down 14 cents. What was encouraging, though, was the
lightness of volume. The stock normally logs around 146,500
shares based on a three-month average, but Thursday's decline
came on volume of just 59,700 shares. This is a clear indication
of a lack of sellers at present levels. Bearing this in mind, we
feel there's a good chance the stock will continue to exhibit
more upside momentum. To that end, we'll look for initial
resistance to come at the $52.10 mark (all-time high). A
potentially harder barrier will follow at $55. Support will come
at the half-century mark, with an additional base at the 4/10
intra-day low of $48.24, bolstered by the 10-dma of $47.80.
Traders could consider entry points when TARO shares bounce off
support or break above $52.10 on volume of at least 75,000 shares
traded by noon. We'll continue to hold a firm stop at $44.

Picked on April 10th@ $49.45
Change since picked +1.20
Stop Loss @ $44.00

 



MOMENTUM PLAY UPDATES 04/12/01
===============================

ACI - Arch Coal Incorporated $32.25 +0.35 (+1.89)

As the demand for more power continues to surge, the market for
coal stocks continues to stay strong. More evidence of this came
on Thursday, as the largest publicly traded coal company, ACI,
furnished investor with a nice rally late in the day. Despite a
gap down at the open, ACI shares reached higher ground by
Thursday's closing bell, finishing up 35 cents to $32.25. Volume
trailed the three-month average, however, as 293,800 shares
crossed the tape. We will likely need volume to increase to at
least the three-month ADV of 590,600 shares if the stock is to
follow through with more gains on Monday. Nevertheless, we want
to point out that the bigger picture remains in tact for our
play, as the stock continues to ascend sharply higher without
breaking the upward trendline. The MACD and On-Balance Volume
indicators also remain strong. With that said, should ACI reach
for higher levels in the upcoming week, we'll look for further
resistance to occur at the $33.72 mark (52-week high), trailed by
a tougher barrier at $35. Support will come at the 5 and 10-dma's
of $31.83 and $30.76, respectively. As far as additional entry
points, we'll look for a run above $33.72 or a pullback to the 5-
or 10-dma's to signal our buys.

Picked on April 5th@ $31.50
Change since picked +0.75
Stop Loss @ $30.00

 

===

KMB - Kimberly-Clark $65.53 +0.33 (-0.97)

KMB has been a favorite vehicle for long-term investors looking
for stable growth and relative security in a volatile market.
The company's long list of well known industrial and home use
paper products provides an enviable level of earnings stability
during an economy that is experiencing a slowdown in many areas.
KMB has been pulling back a bit recently in a likely attempt to
consolidate following last month's nice move to the low $70's.
Look for KMB to start to rally this week once some profit taking
hits the technology stock universe.  One possible entry point for
traders may be when KMB trades above its 5-DMA of $66.22.  It
would be encouraging if KMB could make this move with first hour
trading volume of over 400,000 shares.  We like the fact that
down days for KMB have mostly been accompanied by relatively low
volume.  This fact is reflected in a stable OBV.  The MACD is
still negative but could easily issue a buy signal if KMB can
just move a little higher this week. Momentum investors looking
for an entry point may want to wait for not only the MACD to turn
positive but also wait for the stock to move above the 50-DMA of
$68.31 before going long.

Picked on April 1st @ $67.83
Change since picked -2.30
Stop Loss $62.50

 

===

SLXP - Salix Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. $16.45 0.00 (+1.39)

Salix is breaking out to new highs. On Thursday, shares of SLXP
traded to an all-time high of $16.75 before pulling back to a
close of $16.45 on volume of 123,000 shares. The stock has now
made four consecutive higher highs coupled with higher lows and
heavy volume. Momentum is quite strong so SLXP could continue to
hit new highs. For now, the stock has support is Thursday's
intra-day low of $16.37 with additional support at the 5-dma,
currently at $15.94. Resistance is now up to Thursday's intra-day
high of $16.75 and then possibly $17 or $17.50. Consider entry
points on a bounce off of $16.37 or a breakout above $16.75 on
volume of at least 70,000 shares by noon. We are leaving our
stops at $14.75 to limit potential losses.

Picked on April 8th @ $15.06
Change since picked +1.39
Stop Loss @ $14.75

 

===

UNP - Union Pacific Corporation $56.98 +0.06 (+1.03)

Union Pacific is doing battle with major resistance at $57.63. On
Wednesday, UNP opened at $57.50 but that turned out to be the
intra-day high. On Thursday, shares of UNP traded to an intra-day
high of $57.15 but it failed to break resistance for the third
straight session. Unfortunately, the stock may not see an
earnings run because the company basically pre-announced an
earnings surprise on Tuesday. UNP may spend more time
consolidating in the $54.50-$57.50 range until we see the actual
earnings report, expected on April 20th. In the meantime, support
is the 5-dma at $56.37 with stronger support at $55.72, the April
6th intra-day low. Resistance is Thursday's intra-day high of
$57.15 and then $57.63, the 52-week high. Traders should be
looking for a bounce off of $56.37 or a move above $57.15 on
midday volume greater than 600,000 shares before starting new
plays. Our stops are holding steady at $54.50.

Picked on April 3rd @ $57.35
Change since picked -0.37
Stop Loss @ $54.50

 



=====
DROPS
=====


SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS 04/12/01
=============================

None



SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS 04/12/01
===================================

SRCL - Stericycle, Inc. $45.40 +0.10 (+0.40)

Stericycle, Inc. sold off on Wednesday despite CEO, Mark Miller,
saying on CNBC that he expected double-digit growth for the
coming year.  Shares of SRCL fell to an intra-day low of $43.95
following the announcement. We were stopped out at $44.70m so we
are dropping SRCL tonight.

Picked on April 5th @ $46.00
Profit/Loss = -1.30 (-3%) (Stopped Wednesday at $44.70)
Best Profit = +3.10 (+7%)

 

===

UHS - Universal Health Services $90.41 +2.01 (+0.11)

Technology stock bulls sucked some cash out of just about
everything in order to buy their beloved stocks and UHS suffered
just enough of profit taking to take this winner down to our
$89.00 stop.  UHS may prove to be a good buy once this rotation
reverses.  UHS will announce its quarterly earnings on May 1st
and we would not be surprised if the company makes a split
announcement following their earnings release.

Picked on March 15th @ $83.50
Profit/Loss +5.50  (7%) (Stopped Wednesday @ $89.00)
Best Profit +9.50 (11%)

 



MOMENTUM PLAY DROPS 04/12/01
=============================

None



PLAY-OF-THE-DAY FOR MONDAY
==========================

Thursday, April 12, 2001
=============================

TARO - Taro Pharmaceutical Industries $50.65 -0.14 (+3.90)

Thursday's Comment:

Prospects for Taro have become noticeably brighter, as witnessed
by its recent stock movement. Over the past year, Taro received
seven FDA approvals and reported annual revenues that exceed the
$100 million mark for the first time ever.  This bit of good news
has help Taro nearly double its share price over the past three
months. In Thursday trading, shares of TARO did give back a little
ground from Wednesday's sharp rally and closed the session at
$50.65, down 14 cents. What was encouraging, though, was the
lightness of volume. The stock normally logs around 146,500 shares
based on a three-month average, but Thursday's decline came on
volume of just 59,700 shares. This is a clear indication of a lack
of sellers at present levels. At this point, we feel there's a
good chance the stock will continue to exhibit more upside
momentum. To that end, we'll look for initial resistance to come
at the $52.10 mark (all-time high). A potentially harder barrier
will follow at $55. Support will come at the half-century mark,
with an additional base at the April 10 intra-day low of $48.24,
bolstered by the 10-dma of $47.80. Traders could consider entry
points when TARO shares bounce off support or break above $52.10
on volume of at least 70,000 shares traded by noon. We'll continue
to hold a firm stop at $44.

Picked on April 10th@ $49.45
Change since picked +1.20
Stop Loss @ $44.00

 



================================================================
Weekly Play Results (04/09 - 04/13)
================================================================

Plays   Beginning Price    Ending Price    Gain/Loss    % Change
-----   ---------------    ------------    ---------    --------
ACI          $30.36           $32.25         $1.89         6.23%
BJS          $71.75           $74.26         $2.51         3.50%
EQT          $72.45           $74.91         $2.46         3.40%
KMB          $66.50           $65.53        -$0.97        -1.46%
MKC          $42.15           $41.70        -$0.45        -1.07%
PFGC         $53.50           $53.91         $0.41         0.77%
SLXP         $15.06           $16.45         $1.39         9.23%
SRCL         $45.00           $44.70        -$0.30        -0.67%
TARO         $49.45           $50.65         $1.20         2.43%
UHS          $90.52           $89.00        -$1.52        -1.68%
UNP          $55.95           $56.98         $1.03         1.84%


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