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Email Version, Section 2, Thursday 04/12/2001
The Newsletter         Thursday 04/12/2001 1 of 2
Copyright 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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In This Newsletter:

Market Stats
Market Commentary - NASDAQ Strings Together Four
Definition of the Day
Thursday's Split Announcements - STZ
Monday's Expirations
Event Calendar - Next Week's Economic reports
Upcoming Splits for next two weeks
Successful Announcements - Last Week
New Candidates List
Expected/Likely Announcements for the Coming Week


Market Stats For the Week

Index                     Close    Change    Support   Resistance

DJIA (INDU)           10,126.94   +335.85      9,500       10,300
Nasdaq (COMPX)         1,961.42   +241.05      1,600        2,250
S&P 500 (SPX)          1,183.50   + 55.10      1,080        1,375
Russell 2000 (RUT)       455.02   + 20.36        410          460
PHLX Semi (SOX)          597.92   +110.39        450          650

Market Commentary

NASDAQ Strings Together Four

On the day before Good Friday, the market could do no wrong.
Despite a plethora of bad economic news and warnings out of some
key players, the market surged ahead to post healthy gains.  What
makes this move even more impressive is the fact that traders
were willing to go long into a holiday weekend.  In addition, we
have not seen four up days in a row from the NASDAQ since last
Labor Day.

The market had some hurdles to leap right from the get go today.
Retail sales figures came out before the bell and echoed what
investors have been afraid of; namely that the consumer has sewn
up their wallets and stayed home.  It looks like the wrath of
corporate layoffs and the stock market decline has finally gotten
to the almighty U.S. spender.

Specifically, retail sales in March fell 0.2% after being
unchanged in February.  And with retail sales representing
approximately one third of total demand in the economy, you'd
think the market (especially the recent market) would head for
the bunkers on this type of news.  Nope.  Nothing could stop the
bull-train today, not on Good Thursday.

Besides the poor retail sales number, you had the 800 pound
gorilla of retail and DOW stock, Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) come out and
said that it would not meet its projected first quarter EPS
figure of $0.35/share.  This was of course due to the effects of
poor weather on sales (a favorite excuse of retailers).  But
again, the market didn't want to muddy the holiday weekend, so
WMT, after losing almost $3.00 in the early going, came back to
close down only $0.53 at $49.70.

Rounding out the poor economic news, the Michigan consumer
sentiment index came out at 87.8, which was below estimates and
well below March's figure of 91.5.  In addition, the PPI
(producer price index) showed that inflation remains a bit of a
worry.  The core PPI number, which excludes food and energy,
edged up 0.1% in March.

So you can see, the fact that the market was up today was no
small feat.  Explanations abounded as to why we saw so much
strength today.  There were rumors swirling that institutions
were putting cash to work and that the shorts (hedge funds in
particular) were not only covering but were going net long for
the first time in a while.

Today's Markets

Things are so bad now that they are good.  This is the new mantra
on the Street and it seems to be a good marketing ploy because
buyers have appeared out of the woodwork.  I personally believe
that this is a poor reason to go long, but if enough stocks rally
on bad news then the lemmings will follow and stocks will go

The NASDAQ (COMPX) ended up 62.48, or 3.29%, to 1961.43 on
lighter volume of 1.9 billion shares.  The lighter volume was no
surprise, as traders took off early for the holiday weekend.
What was a surprise was the broad based buying across most all
tech sectors for the fourth day in a row and the 14% gain for the

The DOW (INDU) added 113.47, or 1.13% on volume of 1 billion
shares.  Drug stocks rallied right along side tech stocks, which
in general is a good sign of buying as opposed to just sector
rotation.  Recently, when the techs have rallied, the drugs have
floundered as traders simply rotate money instead of infusing new
capital into the market.

Treasurys continued to trade in response to the equity market.
To that end, it was a turbulent session in the bond pits, with
the 10-year ending off 11/32 to yield 5.17% and the 30-year note
adding 3/32 to yield 5.61%.

Stocks and Sectors on the Move

Since we saw strength and resilience across most all sectors
today, focusing on particular stocks will give us a better idea
as to what was going on behind the scenes and maybe what to
expect for next week.

Bucking the strength seen in techs stocks on Thursday were shares
of EMC Corp. (NYSE:EMC).  The data storage company said that it
would miss first quarter earnings for the first time in five
years due to the economic slowdown.  EMC said earnings of
$0.18/share are more realistic than previous estimates of
$0.20/share expected by analysts.  In response to this news, EMC
fell $0.95 to $31.26.

Returning to the surprising turnaround in retail stocks, Sears
(NYSE:S) got to see the softer side of Wall Street after
investors rallied the stock $0.10 to $34.75 following news of a
drop in sales and an earnings shortfall.   Sears reported that
same-store sales fell 5.3% and that it now sees first-quarter
earnings at $0.53/share as opposed to the expected $0.57/share.

Joining Sears in reporting horrible sales was women's clothier
Talbots (NYSE:TLB), which indicated that sales for March had
slipped a whopping 8.1%.  The difference with TLB, however, was
that investors were not able to bring Talbots back from the grasp
of sellers.  TLB plummeted $3.70 on the day to close at $37.00 on
almost three times normal volume.

In yet another show of brazen bullishness Nortel (NYSE:NT) and
Lucent (NYSE:LU) both rallied off a CS First Boston cropping of
revenue estimates for 2001.  NT added $2.12, or 14.64%, to $16.60
and Lucent rose by $0.15, or 2.06%, to $7.43 after CSFB sited a
weak capital spending market going forward for the fiber optic

Turning to plays, I have to toot the horn on two
plays that have worked out well for us recently.  Equitable
Resources (NYSE:EQT) has been on a tear and has established a
near parabolic up trend that appears to still have good strength.
Also, Performance Food Group (NASDAQ:PFGC) just announced a split
(we were in it before the announcement) and looks like it is
finally ready to break resistance at $55.00.  If it can break
$55, it would complete a triple bottom bullish break that would
ideally have the stock running higher into its payable date of

Looking Forward, Always Forward

After the Easter ham has digested and all the eggs have been
found this weekend, we can look forward to the CPI (consumer
price index) number come Tuesday.  This inflation gauge is widely
expected to rise 0.20% and 0.20% at the core, which would
indicate inflation is still tame.

The real test starting next week, however, will be to see if
buyers reappear en masse.  Also I'd like to see more widespread
buying instead of past rally attempts where one sector suffers at
the expense of another.

With many companies reporting earnings next week, the real key
will be to see if stocks can hold up in the face of widely
expected dismal quarterly results.  If stocks can merely tread
water after these dismal results, I believe that buyers will put
sidelined cash to work.  Ironically, treading water may be
exactly what the doctor ordered, especially in the NASDAQ as
shown below.

Chart of the NASDAQ Composite:

So bottom line is that the market is starting to rally on bad
news again.  While its nice to finally write some kind words
about the market, lets not forget from where it is the market
rallied and why it rallied.  Even though we are heading into
springtime, not everything on Wall Street is blooming.  All I'm
saying is continue to tread lightly until more nagging questions
are worked out and we have a better technical reading on stocks
in general.  This means support levels are holding and bullish
breakouts are not getting whacked back into their bases.

I hope all of you have a good holiday weekend.  Lets just hope
that the Easter bunny sticks around next week because for this
market to move higher it will most certainly need to pull a
rabbit out its hat.

Craig Seidler
Assistant Editor

Editor's Note:

Because of Good Friday and Easter, this will be the last
newsletter delivered until Monday, which is why we have included
our weekend sections.

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Definition of the Day

Lockup Period

A period of time in which an investor is restricted from selling
a specified investment.

For the complete definition, please go to:

Thursday's Split Announcements

Thursday, April 12, 2001, Before the Bell

Constellation has backers starry eyed over 2:1 stock split

Before the opening bell today, Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE:
STZ) announced a two for one stock split on its common stock
(classes A & B), payable on May 14th, 2001 for shareholders of
record as of April 30, 2001.

For the complete announcement, please go to:

Monday's Expirations by Payable Date

Symbol Technologies (SBL) splits 3:2

Event Calendar

For the week of April 16th, 2001

SEMI Book-to-Bill Ratio   Mar  Forecast:    NA   Previous:  0.77

CPI                       Mar  Forecast:  0.20%  Previous:  0.30%
Core CPI                  Mar  Forecast:  0.20%  Previous:  0.30%
Housing Starts            Mar  Forecast: 1.630M  Previous: 1.647M
Building Permits          Mar  Forecast:    NA   Previous: 1.670M
Industrial Production     Mar  Forecast:  0.00%  Previous: -0.60%
Capacity Utilization      Mar  Forecast: 79.20%  Previous: 79.40%
Consumer Confidence       Apr  Forecast:    NA   Previous: 117.0

Trade Balance             Feb  Forecast:-$32.9B  Previous:-$33.3B
Leading Indicators        Mar  Forecast: -0.30%  Previous: -0.20%
Durable Goods             Mar  Forecast:    NA   Previous:  -0.2%
Oil & Gas Inventories  20-Mar  Forecast:    NA   Previous:    NA
Existing Home Sales       Mar  Forecast:    NA   Previous:  5.18M
New Home Sales            Mar  Forecast:    NA   Previous:911,000

Initial Claims         14-Apr  Forecast:    NA   Previous:   392K
Philadelphia Fed          Apr  Forecast:   -20   Previous: -23.5
Treasury Budget           Mar  Forecast: -38.3B  Previous:-$35.4B
Employment Cost Index      Q1  Forecast:    NA   Previous:   0.8%
Help Wanted Index         Mar  Forecast:    NA   Previous:    71
Online Help Wanted Index  Apr  Forecast:    NA   Previous: 112.5

GDP                        Q1  Forecast:    NA   Previous:   1.0%
ECRI Wkly Leading Idx. 20-Apr  Forecast:    NA   Previous:    NA

Week of April 23th
Apr 24  Consumer Confidence
Apr 25  Durable Orders
Apr 25  Existing Home Sales
Apr 25  New Home Sales
Apr 26  Initial Claims
Apr 26  Employment Cost Index
Apr 26  Help-Wanted Index
Apr 27  GDP-Adv.
Apr 27  Chain Deflator-Adv.
Apr 27  Mich Sentiment-Rev.

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Upcoming Splits

Symbol  Company Name                Splits  Payable    Executable

GVA  - Granite Construction           3:2  04/13/2001  04/16/2001
SBL  - Symbol Technologies            3:2  04/16/2001  04/17/2001
CAH  - Cardinal Health                3:2  04/20/2001  04/23/2001
MBI  - MBIA Inc.                      3:2  04/20/2001  04/23/2001
SBUX - Starbucks Corp.                2:1  04/27/2001  04/30/2001
PFGC - Performance Food Group         2:1  04/30/2001  05/01/2001
STZ  - Constellation Brands           2:1  05/14/2001  05/15/2001

Successful Announcement Predictions For The Past Week

Symbol         Company              Date Announced

PFGC         Performance Food Group     04/11
STZ          Constellation Brands       04/12


New Split Candidates:

LLL - L-3 Communications Holdings  $87.00 (+4.34)
Although LLL has never split its shares before, it is now trading
above $85/share, plenty high enough for the company to consider a
2:1 split.  In addition, the firm has 100 million shares
authorized and only 33 million issued.  We are targeting the
company's 4/26 earnings date as the next likely time for a 2:1
split announcement.



MUR - Murphy Oil Company  $75.52  (+3.63)
Murphy has not split its shares since 1980.  With its recent run
higher, the stock has now breached $75/share, which has been a
historic split level within the oil group.  The company has
enough shares for a 3:2 split and we will look towards 4/25 as
the next probable time for a split announcement.



PPL - PPL Corporation  $50.31  (+4.05)
PPL last split its shares 2:1 in May of 1992 at $51.00/share.
Judging from where we closed this week, the Board must be having
share-splitting discussions again.  PPL has 390 million shares
authorized and 177 million issued, so a 2:1 is certainly
possible.  We will watch PPL's earnings release date of 4/25 as
the next likely time for a 2:1 split announcement.


Expected/Likely Announcements for the Coming Week

                                       Date Expected
Symbol         Company                 To Announce

PNC            PNC Financial Services     04/16
PPDI           Pharmaceutical Prod. Dev.  04/16
REI            Reliant Energy             04/16
PEG            Public Service Ent. Grp.   04/18
ASD            American Standard          04/19
EPG            El Paso Energy             04/19
GENZ           Genzyme General            04/19
SDS            SunGard Data Systems       04/19
STU            Student Loan Corp.         04/19
ACS            Affiliated Computer Srvs.  04/20
D              Dominion Resources         04/20


PNC - PNC Financial Services  $67.12 (+0.97)

PNC last split its shares 2:1 in November of 1992 when the stock
was trading at $54.50.  We are expecting a 2:1 split announcement
in conjunction with earnings on 4/16.



PPDI - Pharmaceutical Product Development  $49.14 (+3.39)

PPDI has never split its shares but is trading near all-time
highs and at historic split-levels for its industry.  We are
expecting a 3:2 split announcement with PPDI's earnings release
on 4/16.



REI - Reliant Energy  $45.54 (+1.99)

REI last split its shares 2:1 in December of 1995 when the stock
was trading at $47.00.  We are anticipating a 2:1 split
announcement out of the company's earnings release on 4/16.



PEG - Public Service Enterprise Group  $44.43 (+1.78)

PEG last split its shares 3:2 all the way back in July of 1987 at
$37.00.  Given the current price, we are banking on another 3:2
split to come out of PEG's earnings date of 4/18.



ASD - American Standard Companies  $59.70 (+1.09)

ASD has never split its shares but is knocking on all-time record
highs above the key $50 mark for a split.  We are looking towards
the firm's earnings release of 4/19 as a good time for a 2:1
split announcement.



EPG - El Paso Energy Corp.  $67.07 (+4.32)

EPG last announced a 2:1 split in January of 1998 when the stock
was at $66.94.  Therefore, we believe another 2:1 could be in the
cards on EPG's earnings date of 4/19.



GENZ - Genzyme General  $101.23 (+7.40)

GENZ last split 2:1 in July of 1996 at $47.25.  Given that GENZ
is now over $100, we feel another 2:1 split announcement could
come on 4/19, the firm's earnings date.



SDS - SunGard Data Systems  $51.14 (+3.09)

SDS last announced a 2:1 split in August of 1997 when the stock
was at $48.94.  We are now expecting a 2:1 announcement to
accompany earnings on 4/19.



STU - Student Loan Corp. $72.00 (+0.65)

STU has never split its shares but is trading at historic split-
levels for the finance industry.  We are expecting a 2:1 split
announcement out of the company's board of director's meeting on



ACS - Affiliated Computer Services  $64.01 (-0.61)

ACS last split its shares 2:1 back in late 1996 when the stock
was trading at about $60.  We are therefore looking for a 2:1
split announcement to coincide with earnings on 4/20.



D - Dominion Resources  $67.50 (+1.60)

Dominion last split 3:2 back in January of 1992 at $55.  Given
its recent price, we are expecting another 3:2 out of the firm's
earnings release date of 4/20.


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Anything else is too slow!


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