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Email Version, Section 2, Sunday 04/01/2001
The SplitTrader.com                      Sunday 04/01/2001 2 of 2
Copyright 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

 - Your World Leader for Trading Stock Splits on the Internet -

Posted online for members at: http://www.SplitTrader.com

To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:

http://www.splittrader.com/htmlemail/040101_2.asp
=================================================================

In This Candidate Newsletter:
=============================

Watch List
Plays - New - Updates - Drops
Monday's Candidate Play-of-the-Day -SBUX
Weekly Play Results (03/26 - 03/30

=============================


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==========
Watch List
==========

The following stocks are on our radar screen.  We are watching
them for further developments before we add them to our Current
Play list.


- SPLIT RUN CANDIDATES TO WATCH -

MBI - MBIA Incorporated  $80.68 +1.67

WHY WE LIKE IT: The provider of financial guarantees for bonds,
corporate debt and mortgage-backed securities might see its
business up tick if we are indeed headed into tougher economic
times.  The company declared a 3:2 split back on 3/15/01, which
will be payable on 4/20/01.  We are anticipating a split run into
the payable date.  MBI has recently traced a base on base
formation and may be gearing up for another run higher.  Another
encouraging sign is that the OBV is now close to yearly highs.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT:  MBI needs to close above $81 on volume
of at least 500,000 shares before it becomes a fixture on our
Current Play list.
SUNDAY'S UPDATE: MBI put another stellar day in the books on
Friday.  With the almost $2.00 advance, MBI now is just $0.32
away from making our Current Play list.  Friday's nice move
higher came on almost two times average volume of 500,000 shares,
which says to us that the chances of a continuation of this new
up trend are high.  In addition, the move higher caused MBI's
MACD to issue a buy signal.  We will keep a close eye on MBI's
movements next week.  If volume can continue on the high side,
MBI might just make the grade.

 


- SPLIT CANDIDATES TO WATCH -

ASFC- Astoria Financial Corp.  $53.44 -1.00

WHY WE LIKE IT:  ASFC has been entrenched in a three month tight
base pattern.  While at first this may not seem like good news,
compared with the bank index and the overall market, this is
outstanding.  We like ASFC's relative strength and the fact that
the OBV has been slowly trending higher as the stock moves
sideways (positive divergence).  In addition, the MACD has been
toying with going positive for a week.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT:  ASFC needs to hurdle and close above
$57 on volume of at least 500,000 shares before we will call up
the financial stock to our Current Play list.
SUNDAY'S UPDATE:  Our new Watch List stock sold off on Friday on
fairly strong volume.  This could have been some end of quarter
jockeying by fund managers as most of this occurred within the
last hour of trade.  We are still encouraged by what the chart is
saying about the bigger picture and look for ASFC to recover next
week.  Should ASFC decide not to rally, we will monitor the stock
only down to previous support of $51.88.

 

===

HRB - H&R Block, Inc.  $50.06 +0.36

WHY WE LIKE IT:  It's that time of year again and as everyone
starts to think taxes, money has a way of flowing into tax
services stocks.  Making this potential play even tastier is the
fact that HRB recently reaffirmed its year 2001 earnings (indeed
rare in these troubled times) and stated that revenues for
January and February are up 11.6% over last year.  The chart is
telling us the same rosy story.  HRB gapped higher on 2/28/01,
proceeded to make a new high, then came back to fill its gap on
lower volume.  This is very healthy price action.  In addition,
the stock found support at its 40-dma and looks like it is ready
to gear up for another run higher.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT:  We would like to see HRB close above
its old yearly high of $52.39 on volume of at least 550,000
shares before we add the tax service provider to our Current Play
list.
SUNDAY'S UPDATE: HRB found a foothold at $49.75 on Friday and
managed to eek out a small gain.  HRB is still undergoing
necessary basing action that will hopefully serve as a launching
pad to higher highs.  The good news is that volume has been
drying up as the stock moves lower.  We will remain patient as
long as the stock can continue closing above $46.75.

 


- MOMENTUM STOCKS TO WATCH-

AHC - Amerada Hess $78.12 +1.75

WHY WE LIKE IT:  This natural gas and oil producer and explorer
has traditionally moved higher in bursts followed by
consolidation patterns.  Its last surge higher started 12/18/00
and took the stock up 25% in just over a week's trading.  Since
then, the stock has formed a cup followed by a symmetrical
triangle.  This is bullish price action that may be setting the
stock up for another one of its jumps higher.  In addition, the
stock seems to have good support at its 40-dma.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT:  We need to see AHC close above upside
resistance at $78.50 on volume of at least 700,000 shares before
we will shift the oil/gas play over to our Current Play list.
SUNDAY'S UPDATE:  AHC broke through its upper triangle line on
Friday, confirming its recent strength and overcoming its first
hurdle on the way to our trigger price of $78.50.  With Friday's
move higher, we are only $0.38 away from adding AHC to our
Current Play list.  Should AHC reverse course, we will watch the
oil and gas play down to support at $75.

 

==

SCIO - Scios, Inc.  $23.00 +0.81

WHY WE LIKE IT:  Although the Biotech Index (BTK.X) has been
under pressure since last November, our new Watch List stock,
SCIO has been steadily rising.  Along with this display of
superior relative strength, SCIO has built a nice four-month base
pattern and looks poised to challenge resistance yet again.
Since 2/23 the stock has been trending higher on rising volume
and has broken through its 50-dma.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT:  We need to see SCIO close above $24 on
volume of at least 550,000 shares before we will clear a spot on
our Current Play list for this bio-pharmaceutical company.
SUNDAY'S UPDATE:  Make it six up days in a row for our biotech
Watch List stock.  We are now just $1.00 away from our trigger
with no signs of letting up.  With SCIO closing at its high of
the day on Friday, we feel further gains for next week are in the
cards.  With that said, should SCIO pull a U-turn, we will
continue monitoring it only as long as it can continue closing
over its 20-dma at $20.50.

 


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=====================
SplitTrader.com Plays
=====================

The PLAY LEGEND:

SplitTrader.com Candidate Play Recommendations.

Candidate Play-of-the-Day is our number one candidate
recommendation for the following trading day.
Updates are just that - updates on continuing plays
New plays are brand new for the newsletter.
Drops are closing plays that we feel have lost the advantage.

You will see:
Stock Symbol, Company Name, Closing Price, (change for the week)
Picked at date and Change since picked

Terms:
BoD = Board of Directors meeting
ADV = Average Daily Volume
dma = daily moving average

At the SplitTrader.com website, we have comprehensive profiles
for each stock that we are playing or have played in the past, as
well as hundreds of others. Please take the time to visit the site
to view the profile of the stock(s) you wish to learn more about.
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========


NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS 04/01/01
============================

None



NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS 04/01/01
==================================

None



NEW MOMENTUM PLAYS 04/01/01
============================

KMB - Kimberly-Clark $67.83 (+0.72)

KMB, a global leader in the production and marketing of numerous
household and industrial products, has been a very strong market
performer for the better part of a year.  By supplying the world
with products that people will always need, KMB has been able to
maintain stable earnings.  KMB is expected to post profits of
$3.65 for fiscal 2001.  The company has a very modest forward P/E
of 18.6, which offers jittery investors a little bit of cushion
in this nervous market.  This fact partly explains why KMB has
been able to hold its stock value while so many other stocks have
floundered.  KMB has spent the past several trading sessions
consolidating its gains from earlier this year.  This process may
be nearing its completion, enabling the stock to resume its up
trend.  New positions can be added as KMB crosses over its 50-DMA
of $67.88.  Some of you may want to wait until it becomes clear
that KMB will close above the 50-DMA on volume that put the stock
on track to do 2 million shares by day's end.  Money Flow has
been outstanding and the OBV is improving.  Although the MACD is
still negative, it appears to have stopped its decent and could
be poised to trigger a buy signal soon.  We are placing stops at
$62.50 in case KMB brakes support at $65.50.

Picked on April 1st @ $67.83
Change since picked +0.00
Stop Loss $62.50

 

===

WM - Washington Mutual Incorporated $54.75 (+4.31)

Revenues in the financial service industry remain closely tied to
the direction of interest rates, which is one reason why
Washington Mutual (WM) has caught the attention of momentum
traders over the past few months. The picture was quite different
just last year, however, as earnings growth for the company
slowed because of a series of rate hikes by the Fed. This year is
a completely different story. Currently, WM is poised to deliver
solid profit growth in upcoming quarters and with the possibility
of further monetary easing, the company should be able to reduce
its funding costs even more. We also like the fact that WM is a
giant within its industry and currently has over 2000 offices and
$190 billion in assets. Turning to WM's chart, we can't help but
notice the excellent set-up for a momentum breakout. Bullish
crossovers in both the MACD and Stochastic provide strength to
the current uptrend and further our confidence of a potential
rally. Volume, we need to point out, has come in under the 3-
month average over the past several days and will need to improve
to at least 3,500,000 shares/day to fuel the stock higher. We'll
look for resistance to come in at the all time high of $55.93,
and above that, we can expect a tougher barrier at $60. Support
should come in at the 5-dma of $53.28 and then at the 50-dma of
$50.92. Low risk entry points may present themselves with a
bounce off support on volume of at least 1,750,000 shares by mid-
day or a breach through resistance on similar mid-day volume.
We'll employ stops at $50.75 to guard against lower levels.

Picked on April 1st @ $54.75
Change since picked 0.00
Stop Loss @ $50.75

 



=======
UPDATES
=======


SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES 04/01/01
===============================

SBUX - Starbucks Corporation $42.44 (+1.56)

Folks don't just want their Starbucks coffee; they need their
Starbucks coffee.  It seems that people can't get enough of the
stuff and are willing to pay handsomely for the gourmet blends
and more exotic concoctions.  Starbucks is only too happy to fill
this demand.  The caffeine pusher continues to expand by placing
stores in everything from bookstores to grocery stores.  SBUX
appears to have built some nice support and is starting to rally
on the heels of a split announcement.  The 2:1 split will be made
payable on April 27th, which is the day after earnings are to be
released.  This should give us plenty of time to enjoy a
potential split and/or earnings anticipation run.  Friday's close
was just slightly above the important 200-DMA level of $42.28.
New positions can be placed if SBUX can stay above this support.
Another possible entry strategy would be to go long if SBUX can
move above Friday's high of $43.56 on midday volume of over 1.4
million shares.  A positive start to this week should cause the
MACD to issue a buy signal, which would help confirm SBUX's
return to a longer-term rally mode.  Additionally, the OBV is
starting to recover and the RSI is rising from a level that had
previously indicated an oversold condition.  SBUX should
eventually find resistance at its 50-DMA of $46.09 but this
leaves plenty of room for a 10% plus rally in the mean time.  Our
stops remain at $38.50 to guard against a reversal.

Picked on March 29th @ $41.94
Change since picked +0.50
Stop Loss $38.50

 



SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES 04/01/01
=====================================

EQT - Equitable Resources, Inc. $69.00 (+3.94)

Equitable Resources, Inc. got a boost from its addition to the
S&P 400 as index funds are required to own the stock after
Friday's closing bell. On Friday, shares of EQT traded as low as
$67 before bouncing back to close at its intra-day high of $69 on
volume of 1.66 million shares. Volume has been abnormally high
over the past three sessions due to the S&P 400 addition and we
do not expect the heavy volume to continue for much longer.
Unfortunately, EQT may suffer a bit next week as short-term
traders playing the addition unwind their positions and sell the
stock. However, the S&P 400 is not a high-profile index so the
effects should not be too severe. We are looking for a split
announcement with the April earnings release or out of its next
BoD meeting. The company has enough shares for a split and the
stock is trading within previous range. Going forward, support
has come in at Friday's intra-day low of $67 with stronger
support at $66.19, the 10-dma. Resistance is now up to
Wednesday's intra-day high of $70.50 and then possibly $72 or
$73. A bounce off of $67 or a breakout above $70.50 on midday
volume greater than 100,000 shares may be possible entry points.
Our stops are holding steady at $63.40.

Picked on March 27th @ $67.20
Change since picked +1.80
Stop Loss @ $63.40

 

===

MKC - McCormick & Company $41.99 (+2.31)

McCormick & Company traded higher on Friday as the food sector
regained its momentum. Shares of MKC hit an all-time high of
$42.20 before pulling back to close at $41.99 on strong volume of
597,000 shares. The stock has broken through resistance on four
times its average daily volume so it could continue to make new
highs as we approach earnings season. The company currently has
enough shares for a split and the stock is trading within
historic split range. MKC announced its last three splits when
the stock was trading in the $35-$45 range so we are looking for
a split out of its next BoD meeting of with the June earnings
release. In the meantime, support is the 5-dma at $41.26 with
additional support at $40.68, the 10-dma. Resistance has moved up
to the all-time high of $42.20 and then $43 or $45. Look for
entry points on a bounce off of $40.80 or a breakout above $42.20
on volume of at least 80,000 shares by noon. We are keeping our
stops at $38.75 to limit potential losses.

Picked on March 29th @ $41.43
Change since picked +0.56
Stop Loss @ $38.75

 

===

PFGC - Performance Food Group $52.50 (+3.00)

PFGC is likely to be resistant to an economic slowdown because it
is a major food processor and distributor.  People still have to
eat, no matter how severe the economic slowdown becomes.  PFGC is
fast becoming a split candidate now that the stock is trading in
the $50's.  The company's last split was nearly five years ago so
it could be that PFGC is overdue for a split announcement.  PFGC
was pretty volatile last week.  The stock spiked up to $54.38 and
just as quickly pulled back to $48.75.  These two prices will
likely present the respective support and resistance levels for
this coming week's trading.  If Friday's momentum carries over to
Monday, look to possibly enter a position if PFGC can cross over
$54.38, especially if the stock enjoys midday volume over 70,000
shares.  This move would be a breakout of an inverse head and
shoulders formation, which is usually very bullish.  The MACD is
rising and this tells us that PFGC should continue trending
higher.  The Money Flow is outstanding, which also implies
further gains for PFGC.  It is also encouraging to see that the
RSI has some room before PFGC would be considered overbought.
Our stop remains firm at $46.00 to limit losses.

Picked on March 25th @ $49.50
Change since picked +3.00
Stop Loss @ $46.00

 

===

RDN - Radian Group Incorporated $67.75 (+5.85)

The Radian Group soared to higher levels on Friday and took out a
tough barrier at the intermediate high of $67.60. Even more
impressive was the fact that the breakout unfolded without the
assistance of a news release. This could be an indication that
momentum players are keeping a close watch on the stock and are
jumping aboard when RDN breaks above resistance. The intraday
chart confirms this possibility, as volume has been picking up
when the stock ascends through previous highs. What's more, we're
impressed with good technical readings in both the MACD and OBV
indicators, which convey a continuation to the uptrend. All of
these factors make the daily chart quite compelling and lead us
to believe that a run to the $70 mark could lie in store. To get
us there, we'll look for daily volume to remain above the 3-month
average of 461,500 shares when the stock moves higher. Should RDN
encounter a couple of minor dips before its next leg up, we'll
expect to see support at the February 14th high of $67.60, and
just below at $65, bolstered by the 100-dma of $64.31. Resistance
will be at Friday's intraday high of $68.39. Consider adding to
positions if RDN breaks above resistance or rebounds off support
on volume exceeding 230,000 shares traded by mid-day.

Picked on March 18th @ $61.00
Change since picked +6.75
Stop Loss @ $62.50

 

===

UHS - Universal Health Services $88.30 (+5.45)

After stumbling out of the blocks at the start of last week, UHS
made up for lost time and closed the week in stellar fashion.
UHS, which owns and operates 47 hospitals across the country, may
have been a beneficiary of a little end of the quarter window
dressing.  Health care stocks have become desirable within the
investment community due to their reliable revenue stream and
stable profits.  The nice rally last week has increased the
possibility that UHS will announce a split.  The last split
occurred in May of 1996 when the stock was trading more than $30
below current levels.  The technical picture for UHS continues to
improve, especially now that the stock has closed comfortably
above its 50-DMA of $84.78.  A move above Friday's high of $90.25
on at least 250,000 shares traded by midday may prove to be an
excellent entry point.  However, if the stock gaps up to $92.00
or higher on the open, it may be best to wait for a little
pullback before entering a trade.  The next resistance level for
UHS is likely to be found at $96.00.  The MACD is now decidedly
positive and may be portending a nice long-term up trend.  We
also like the fact that the RSI is telling us that UHS has plenty
of upside potential before becoming overbought.  Stops remain
firm at $80.00.

Picked on March 15th @ $83.50
Change since picked +4.80
Stop Loss @ $80.00

 



MOMENTUM PLAY UPDATES 04/01/01
===============================

THQI - THQ Incorporated $38.00 (+3.50)

THQ Incorporated traded in positive territory for most of
Friday's session on news that Southwest Securities moved its
price target on THQI from $37 up to $46, a 24% increase. Shares
of THQI traded to an intra-day high of $38.69 before falling back
to a close of $38 on volume of 787,000 shares. The stock has been
consolidating over the past three sessions on lighter volume so
THQI may spend some time in the $35-$40 range before it moves to
new highs. For now, support is the 5-dma at $37.55 with stronger
support at $35.38, the 10-dma. Resistance remains unchanged at
Wednesday's intra-day high of $38.81 and then Tuesday's intra-day
high of $39.94. Traders may consider starting new plays on a
bounce off of $37.55 or a move above $38.81 on volume greater
than 250,000 shares by noon. We are leaving our stops at $35 as
downside protection.

Picked on March 25th @ $34.50
Change since picked +3.50
Stop Loss @ $35.00

 



=====
DROPS
=====


SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS 04/01/01
=============================

None



SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS 04/01/01
===================================

NVR - NVR Incorporated $163.00 (+3.05)

A quick and unsuspecting sell-off in the last hour of Friday's
trading session caused NVR shares to clip our stop at $164. The
decline took place in spite of broad market strength, which could
be an initial indication of near-term weakness in the stock.

Picked on March 27th @ $166.20
Profit/Loss = -2.20 (-1%) (Stopped out Friday @ $164.00)
Best Profit = +3.80 (+2%)

 



MOMENTUM PLAY DROPS 04/01/01
=============================

SFD - Smithfield Foods, Inc. $32.50 (-2.27)

Smithfield Foods, Inc. was unfortunately hammered on Friday after
Tyson Foods (TSN) terminated its merger agreement with IBP Inc.
(IBP), making SFD a possible suitor. Shares of SFD gapped down to
open at $33.25 before falling to an intra-day low of $30. We were
stopped shortly after the opening bell so we are dropping SFD
from our Current Plays list.

Picked on March 22nd @ $32.25
Profit/Loss = +1.00 (+3%) (Stopped out Friday @ $33.25)
Best Profit = +5.85 (+18%)

 



PLAY-OF-THE-DAY
===============

Sunday, April 1, 2001
=============================

SBUX - Starbucks Corporation $42.44 (+1.56)

Sunday's Comment:

Folks don't just want their Starbucks coffee; they need their
Starbucks coffee.  It seems that people can't get enough of the
stuff and are willing to pay handsomely for the gourmet blends
and more exotic concoctions.  Starbucks is only too happy to fill
this demand.  The caffeine pusher continues to expand by placing
stores in everything from bookstores to grocery stores.  SBUX
appears to have built some nice support and is starting to rally
on the heels of a split announcement.  The 2:1 split will be made
payable on April 27th, which is the day after earnings are to be
released.  This should give us plenty of time to enjoy a
potential split and/or earnings anticipation run.  Friday's close
was just slightly above the important 200-DMA level of $42.28.
New positions can be placed if SBUX can stay above this support.
Another possible entry strategy would be to go long if SBUX can
move above Friday's high of $43.56 on midday volume of over 1.4
million shares.  A positive start to this week should cause the
MACD to issue a buy signal, which would help confirm SBUX's
return to a longer-term rally mode.  Additionally, the OBV is
starting to recover and the RSI is rising from a level that had
previously indicated an oversold condition.  SBUX should
eventually find resistance at its 50-DMA of $46.09 but this
leaves plenty of room for a 10% plus rally in the mean time.  Our
stops remain at $38.50 to guard against a reversal.

Picked on March 29th @ $41.94
Change since picked +0.50
Stop Loss $38.50

 



================================================================
Weekly Play Results (03/26 - 03/30)
================================================================

Plays   Beginning Price    Ending Price    Gain/Loss    % Change
-----   ---------------    ------------    ---------    --------
UHS          $82.85          $88.30          $5.45          6.58%
RDN          $61.90          $67.75          $5.85          9.45%
SFD          $34.77          $33.25         -$1.52         -4.37%
TMIC          $4.22           $4.25          $0.03          0.71%
THQI         $34.50          $38.00          $3.50         10.14%
RCII         $45.13          $42.13         -$3.00         -6.65%
PFGC         $49.50          $52.50          $3.00          6.06%
EQT          $67.20          $69.00          $1.80          2.68%
NVR         $166.20         $164.00         -$2.20         -1.32%


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