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Email Version, Section 2, Sunday 03/25/2001
The SplitTrader.com                      Sunday 03/25/2001 2 of 2
Copyright 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

 - Your World Leader for Trading Stock Splits on the Internet -

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=================================================================

In This Candidate Newsletter:
=============================

Watch List
Plays - New - Updates - Drops
Monday's Candidate Play-of-the-Day -THQI
Weekly Play Results (03/18 - 03/23)

=============================


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==========
Watch List
==========

The following stocks are on our radar screen.  We are watching
them for further developments before we add them to our Current
Play list.


- SPLIT RUN CANDIDATES TO WATCH -

MBI - MBIA Incorporated  $75.85 +1.17

WHY WE LIKE IT: The provider of financial guarantees for bonds,
corporate debt and mortgage-backed securities might see its
business up tick if we are indeed headed into tougher economic
times.  The company declared a 3:2 split back on 3/15/01, which
will be payable on 4/20/01.  We are anticipating a split run into
the payable date.  MBI has recently traced a base on base
formation and may be gearing up for another run higher.  Another
encouraging sign is that the OBV is now close to yearly highs.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT:  MBI needs to close above $81 on volume
of at least 500,000 shares before it becomes a fixture on our
Current Play list.
SUNDAY'S UPDATE:  MBI rebounded on Friday, erasing Thursday's
losses and putting our Watch List play back in the game.  Going
into next week, we will watch to see if MBI can breach its 5 and
10-dmas on good volume.  Also, it appears as if MBI may be
forming a head and shoulders top (which would be bearish for our
play, of course).  We need to see MBI rally above $77.50 to avoid
falling victim to this topping formation.  We will watch MBI only
as long as it can continue closing above its 50-dma, now located
at $73.

 


- SPLIT CANDIDATES TO WATCH -

MKC - McCormick & Company  $39.85 -0.17

WHY WE LIKE IT:  Although the food and spice manufacturer is not
in the sexiest of businesses, with gross profit margins close to
40%, MKC has proven that it can certainly provide shareholder
value.  In fact, just since the beginning of the year, the stock
is up 11%.  Compare this to the S&P 500, which is down 11% for
the same period.  In addition, McCormick's chart is telling us
that the stock has had some good momentum to the upside and that
it may continue.  OBV is at new highs and the stock has just
traced a base on base pattern that might serve to launch the
stock to new highs.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT:  We need to see MKC close above its
previous high of $41.50 on volume of at least 140,000 shares
traded before we will spice up our Current Play list with this
stock.
SUNDAY'S UPDATE:  The market cooperated on Friday, but MKC did
not.  With money flowing back into tech, some capital may be
coming out of "safer" plays like MKC.  However, all indicators
are pointing towards a relief bounce next week, as MKC continues
to slip into oversold levels.  With that said, MKC will remain a
fixture on our Watch List only as long as it can hold immediate
support at $39.00, a mere 68 cents away.

 

===

NVR - NVR, Inc.  $159.95 +3.95

WHY WE LIKE IT:  With the home building sector being one of the
last to hold up in this sketchy market, we like the relative
safety and strength of NVR.  Also, the homebuilders are still
predicting strong earnings going forward.  NVR's chart shows us
that the stock has found support at $153.50.  NVR has come back
from overbought levels and looks poised to break its recent high
again.  Lastly, OBV is extremely strong, telling us that buyers
still have the upper hand.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT:  NVR needs to close above its previous
nadir at $163.50 on volume of at least 80,000 shares traded.  One
caveat; this is obviously a low volume, pricey stock, which makes
for large price swings.
SUNDAY'S UPDATE:  NVR continued tracing a cup formation on Friday
by rallying along with the broader markets.  Friday's move higher
put the MACD just a hair away from issuing a buy signal.  Monday
brings the new home sales number.  A better than expected reading
may be all we need to get NVR over the hump and onto our Current
Play list.  With that said, we will watch NVR as look as it can
continue to hold its most recent consolidation base at $149.

 


- MOMENTUM STOCKS TO WATCH -

NVLS - Novellus Systems  $46.56 -0.19

WHY WE LIKE IT:  While the Software Index (GSO.X) has been
steadily making new lows, NVLS has been holding up and moving
sideways.  Now that the GSO.X is showing signs of life, we
believe money will rotate back into the strongest stocks in the
sector, among them NVLS.  The stock has formed a cup and handle
bottom and looks poised to break out from its handle soon.  It
has tried three times in the past two weeks, but has been turned
back at the $48 level.  We believe that there is a good chance
that NVLS will break soon due to the positive divergence seen
between the up trending OBV and the sideways moving price action.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT:  A break and close above $49 on volume
of at least 7 million shares will earn NVLS a spot on our Current
Play list.
SUNDAY'S UPDATE:  Our new watch list stock slipped just a bit on
Friday, but that doesn't stop us from thinking that this software
stock might prove to be a winner.  If the NASDAQ can put a few
more good days together, NVLS should be able to take out
resistance at $48 and move on towards our trigger.  As a side
note, the MACD just flipped positive and OBV is on the upswing.
If NVLS decides to call it quits, we will monitor the stock only
as long as it can continue closing above $40.

 

===

SLOT - Anchor Gaming  $53.69 +0.94

WHY WE LIKE IT:  SLOT's chart pattern is looking extremely
bullish.  If the broader markets decide to rally or at least
stabilize, SLOT should be in good shape.  The stock has formed a
symmetrical triangle pattern and looks poised to break out to the
upside.  The MACD is starting to roll positive and given another
burst higher, will issue a buy signal.  Also, the 40-dma is now
acting as good support and OBV is nearing new highs as SLOT
continues to base (bullish divergence).
POTENTIAL TRIGGER EVENT:  Anchor is close to breaking through the
top of its triangle formation (short term down trend line) but we
need the stock to close above its old high at $55.50, on volume
of at least 250,000 shares, before we will add it to the Current
Play list.
SUNDAY'S UPDATE:   SLOT is now just $1.25 away from gracing our
Current Play list.  If Friday's market momentum can ooze over
into next week, SLOT has a good chance of hitting our trigger.
We say this because Friday's move to the upside put SLOT above
its upper symmetrical triangle line, which is half the battle to
taking out our trigger.  In addition, the MACD is about to roll
positive and the OBV is about to go to new highs.  On the flip
side, should SLOT decide to drop anchor, we will watch it drop
only as far as its 50-dma at $49.71.

 


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=====================
SplitTrader.com Plays
=====================

The PLAY LEGEND:

SplitTrader.com Candidate Play Recommendations.

Candidate Play-of-the-Day is our number one candidate
recommendation for the following trading day.
Updates are just that - updates on continuing plays
New plays are brand new for the newsletter.
Drops are closing plays that we feel have lost the advantage.

You will see:
Stock Symbol, Company Name, Closing Price, (change for the week)
Picked at date and Change since picked

Terms:
BoD = Board of Directors meeting
ADV = Average Daily Volume
dma = daily moving average

At the SplitTrader.com website, we have comprehensive profiles
for each stock that we are playing or have played in the past, as
well as hundreds of others. Please take the time to visit the site
to view the profile of the stock(s) you wish to learn more about.
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========


NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS 03/25/01
============================

None



NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS 03/25/01
==================================

PFGC - Performance Food Group $49.50 (+2.44)

PFGC, a major supplier of food products to restaurants, hotels,
schools and hospitals, could be on the verge of another price
breakout.  For most of this year, PFGC has seen quick spikes in
its price following a period of consolidation around its 50-DMA.
Currently, this moving average is slightly below $48.00 and PFGC
has been consolidating right around this price for two weeks.  By
closing right on its high for the week on Friday, PFGC may be
ready for another spike up this week.  New positions could be
considered if PFGC opens higher on Monday.  If you see a gap up,
you may want to wait for a little pullback in the first few hours
of trading before jumping on board.  In addition to PFGC's strong
chart, we believe that the stock is a split candidate, now that
the stock has climbed back above $45.00.  A move higher this week
would likely be confirmed by a MACD that turns positive.  Money
Flow is also quite strong.  A quick advance would have plenty of
upside potential before the RSI issues an overbought signal.

Picked on March 25th @ $49.50
Change since picked +0.00
Stop Loss @ $46.00

 

===

RCII - Rent-A-Center Incorporated $45.13 (+1.31)

As the market continues to deal with the bloodbath in technology
stocks, money continues to flow into defensive sectors that have
kept up steady earnings. One such company is Rent-A-Center
(RCII), which has notched a 31% increase in annual earning over
each of the past five years. As a result, this rent to own
corporation has levitated an amazing 200% from its low of March
2000. This move has created a strong uptrend on the chart, and
when combined with the solid fundamentals of the company, has put
the stock in a great position for further gains. What's more, we
like RCII as a split candidate play. The company currently has
24.69 million shares outstanding with 50 million shares
authorized, enough for a 2:1 stock split. Getting back to the
chart, RCII shares retreated from a mid-week rally to all time
highs ($47.44) and finished lower by 1.22 points or 2.63% on
Friday. Volume of 521,900 shares accompanied Friday's decent,
which came in slightly more than the 3-month average. We are
encouraged, however, by the fact that the stock managed to bounce
from support at the $45 mark and finish the day above this level.
In addition, On Balance Volume and Money Flow remain strong and
provide us with further evidence that RCII remains poised for
higher highs. So, in the upcoming week we'll look for another new
high or a quick bounce off support at $45.00 when considering a
position in the stock. Volume will be a key component for further
gains, so we'll look for the stock to trade at least 150,000
shares by mid-day. Past breakout volume from RCII has exceeded
500,000 shares on a daily basis and we should expect no less
here. We'll keep stops at $42.25 for now.

Picked on March 25th @ $45.13
Change since picked 0.00
Stop Loss @ $42.25

 



NEW MOMENTUM PLAYS 03/25/01
============================

THQI - THQ Incorporated $34.50 (+1.94)

THQI is in the business of fun and games, which is apropos
considering investors have been having a ball riding its stock to
new yearly highs.  THQ Incorporated provides interactive video
games for the Sony PlayStation, Sega Dreamcast, Nintendo 64,
Nintendo Game Boy and personal computers. The stock has been
trending higher over the past 10 months after hitting a low of
$7.63 on May 25th. On Friday, shares of THQI traded to a 52-week
high of $34.88, representing a 357% gain from the low to the
high. The stock price reflects an improved fundamental outlook
for THQI based on the success of the new Sony PlayStation
platform. We believe that THQI could move even higher as the new
PlayStation gains acceptance and production of the consoles from
Sony increases to meet demand. From a technical standpoint, THQI
has support at Friday's intra-day low of $32.88 with additional
support at $ 33.21, the 5-dma. Resistance is Friday's intra-day
high of $34.88 and then the 12/7/99 intra-day low of $36.38. We
are additionally encouraged by the fact that THQI's MACD just
turned positive and that the OBV is at a year high.  A bounce off
of $34.13 or a breakout above $34.88 on midday volume greater
than 200,000 shares may be possible entry points. We plan to set
stops at $31.50 to limit potential losses.

Picked on March 25th @ $34.50
Change since picked +0.00
Stop Loss @ $31.50

 



=======
UPDATES
=======


SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES 03/25/01
===============================

TMIC - Trend Micro Inc. $8.44 (+1.69)

Trend Micro is a Japanese company that provides IT managers with
anti-virus and other computer protection services.  Just last
week, TMIC announced that it has expanded its presence in the US
by opening up a call center in Fort Worth, Texas.  This should
enable the company to better represent its American clients.  If
you were wondering, TMIC is not a typical Splittrader.com play
due to its single digit price and low average daily volume of
under 50,000 shares.  Although these facts make TMIC a somewhat
speculative play, the stock is nonetheless going to split 2:1 on
May 18th.  The potential for a split run, as well as the nice
relative strength that TMIC exhibited last week is what makes
TMIC an attractive play.  A move above the 50-DMA of $8.81,
coupled with volume exceeding 50,000 shares for the day, could be
the trigger for a nice rally to the next resistance point of
$10.25. The MACD broke a long downtrend late last week, which is
another good sign that TMIC could continue in the right
direction. In addition, money flow is positive and the RSI leaves
plenty of upside potential before the stock would be considered
overbought.

Picked on March 22nd @ $8.38
Change since picked +0.06
Stop Loss @ $7.00

 



SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES 03/25/01
=====================================

RDN - Radian Group Incorporated $61.90 (+0.90)

Through a less restrictive loan qualification process, RDN has
been able to gain more share of its niche market and increase its
annual revenues by 30% over each of the past 5 years. On Friday,
shares of RDN bounced sharply from an intraday low of $60.68 and
finished the day higher by 1.50% to close at $61.90. We would
have liked to see volume come in above the 3-month average, but
RDN fell shy of this mark, as 354,000 crossed the tape. However,
should the stock continue to make more gains in the upcoming
week, then we'll expect buying interest to improve and generate
more volume. In the meantime, we'll continue to look for support
at Friday's intra-day low, with stronger support at the $60 mark.
Initial resistance has moved up to Friday's intra-day high of
$62.08 and then the 200-dma of $62.92. A bounce off of support or
a move above $62.08 on midday volume greater than 250,000 shares
may be possible entry points. Additional support from the Dow
Jones Industrial Average (INDU) and the NYSE Financial Index
(NF.X) would be helpful as well. Our stops will remain firm at
$59.00.

Picked on March 18th @ $61.00
Change since picked +0.90
Stop Loss @ $59.00

 

===

UHS - Universal Health Services $82.85 (-1.52)

UHS, a leading owner and operator of 47 hospitals across the
country, survived what was clearly a tough week for stocks in
general and health care stocks in particular.  Last week's trade
in UHS was characterized by the establishment of a tight range.
After falling from its peak of $112.93 late last year, UHS is now
consolidating above its 200-DMA of $80.81 and below its 50-DMA of
$85.16.  These prices represent the support and the resistance
that should define next week's trading.  A move above $85.16
could be the start of a nice breakout, especially if we see
volume approaching 400,000 shares by the close.  We would be very
cautious if UHS fell below $80.81. With that said, the MACD is
threatening to issue a buy signal.  A nice start to this week for
UHS would tip the MACD to the upside and would confirm a
breakout.  We also like the fact that the RSI has plenty of room
before UHS would be considered overbought. New entries could be
considered on a break above the 50-dma, now at $84.88, on volume
that would put UHS on pace to do 450,000 shares for the day.

Picked on March 15th @ $83.50
Change since picked -0.65
Stop Loss @ $80.00

 



MOMENTUM PLAY UPDATES 03/25/01
===============================

SFD - Smithfield Foods, Inc. $34.77 (+3.97)

Smithfield Foods, Inc. gapped up on Friday morning after First
Union reiterated its "Strong Buy" rating and its $36 price target
on the stock. Shares of SFD traded to a new 52-week high of
$34.87 before pulling back to a close of $34.77 on heavy volume
of 874,000 shares. The stock has broken out of its trading range
on three times average daily volume so it could be ready to hit a
string of new highs. The European foot and mouth livestock crisis
may have also contributed to the rally, as the story continues to
make headlines.  In fact, Smithfield was specifically mentioned
in Business Week as a benefactor to higher hog prices. Going
forward, support has moved up to Friday's intra-day low of $33.53
with stronger support at $32.81, the 5-dma. Resistance is now
Friday's intra-day high of $34.87 and then possibly $36 or $37.
Traders may consider starting new plays on a bounce off of $33.53
or a breakout above $34.87 on volume of at least 130,000 shares
by noon. We are keeping our stops at $29.75 as downside
protection.

Picked on March 22nd @ $32.25
Change since picked +2.52
Stop Loss @ $29.25

 



=====
DROPS
=====


SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS 03/25/01
=============================

None



SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS 03/25/01
===================================

CEC - CEC Entertainment Inc. $40.60 (+0.20)

CEC Entertainment fell below the $40 mark on Friday as investors
moved money out of safety stocks and back into the tech sector.
CEC fell to an intra-day low of $39.50 on volume of 116,500
shares. We were stopped out at $39.50 so we are dropping Chuckie
from our Current Plays list.

Picked on March 13th @ $41.81
Profit/Loss = -2.31 (-6%) (Stopped out Friday @ $39.50)
Best Profit = +0.34 (+1%)

 



MOMENTUM PLAY DROPS 03/25/01
=============================

MAT - Mattel, Inc. $17.82 (+0.12)

Mattel Inc. has been losing its momentum over the past few days.
On Friday, shares of MAT fell to an intra-day low of $17 on
volume of 2.84 million shares. Our stops were triggered at the
intra-day low, so we are closing out this play.

Picked on March 15th @ $18.55
Profit/Loss = -1.55 (-8%) (Stopped out Friday @ $17.00)
Best Profit = +0.50 (+3%)

 



PLAY-OF-THE-DAY
===============

Sunday, March 25, 2001
=============================

THQI - THQ Incorporated $34.50 (+1.94)

Sunday's Comment:

THQI is in the business of fun and games, which is apropos
considering investors have been having a ball riding its stock
to new yearly highs.  THQ Incorporated provides interactive
video games for the Sony PlayStation, Sega Dreamcast, Nintendo
64, Nintendo Game Boy and personal computers. The stock has
been trending higher over the past 10 months after hitting a
low of $7.63 on May 25th. On Friday, shares of THQI traded to
a 52-week high of $34.88, representing a 357% gain from the
low to the high. The stock price reflects an improved
fundamental outlook for THQI based on the success of the new
Sony PlayStation platform. We believe that THQI could move
even higher as the new PlayStation gains acceptance and
production of the consoles from Sony increases to meet demand.
From a technical standpoint, THQI has support at Friday's
intra-day low of $32.88 with additional support at $ 33.21,
the 5-dma. Resistance is Friday's intra-day high of $34.88 and
then the 12/7/99 intra-day low of $36.38. We are additionally
encouraged by the fact that THQI's MACD just turned positive
and that the OBV is at a year high.  A bounce off of $34.13 or
a breakout above $34.88 on midday volume greater than 200,000
shares may be possible entry points. We plan to set stops at
$31.50 to limit potential losses.

Picked on March 25th @ $34.50
Change since picked +0.00
Stop Loss @ $31.50

 



================================================================
Weekly Play Results (03/18 - 03/23)
================================================================

Plays   Beginning Price    Ending Price    Gain/Loss    % Change
-----   ---------------    ------------    ---------    --------
LMT          $37.00           $35.00        -$2.00        -5.41%
SBL          $45.59           $45.25        -$0.34        -0.75%
CEC          $40.40           $39.50        -$0.90        -2.23%
MAT          $17.70           $17.00        -$0.70        -3.95%
UCBH         $53.13           $49.00        -$4.13        -7.77%
UHS          $84.37           $82.85        -$1.52        -1.80%
JKHY         $24.31           $22.75        -$1.56        -6.42%
RDN          $61.00           $61.90         $0.90         1.48%
SIAL         $45.44           $42.25        -$3.19        -7.02%
GDW          $58.80           $54.50        -$4.30        -7.31%
SFD          $32.25           $34.77         $2.52         7.81%
TMIC          $8.38            $8.44         $0.06         0.72%


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==========
DISCLAIMER
==========

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of online stock traders. The newsletter is an information
service only. The information provided herein is not to be
construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind.
The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding how to trade stock
splits. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the
editors and staff of SplitTrader.com may own, buy or sell
securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified
professional before trading in any security. The information
provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is
not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.  SplitTrader.com
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due
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