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Email Version, Section 1, Tuesday 03/20/2001
The SplitTrader.com Newsletter          Tuesday 03/20/2001 1 of 1
Copyright 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

  - Your World Leader for Trading Stock Splits on the Internet -

Posted online for members at: http://www.SplitTrader.com

To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:

http://www.splittrader.com/htmlemail/032001_1.asp
================================================================

In This Newsletter:
===================

Market Commentary - Vernal Equi-knocks
Definition of the Day
Tuesday's Split Announcements - SBUX
Wednesday's Expirations
Plays - New - Updates - Drops
Wednesday's Play-of-the-Day - CEC

==================================================================


Market Commentary
=================

Vernal Equi-knocks

Today marked the vernal equinox, where day and night are
equal, balanced and poised, but about to spill over towards
the side of light and warmer days (for those of us in the
Northern Hemisphere).  Wish we could say as much for the
market.

Spring is supposed to be a time of new life, hope and
fertility.  And though day and night are now perfectly
balanced, the stock market is anything but.  After the Fed cut
interest rates by 50-basis points today, it seemed more like
autumn on Wall Street, as screens turned red and investors
turned cold on stocks.

The markets sold off (to put it mildly) after investors showed
their disappointment in the lack of an aggressive 75-basis
point cut.  However, the silver lining to the Fed's report was
that they indicated that they are fully dedicated to cutting
interest rates until the economy and stock market show signs
of life.  Great, but investors obviously are still not able to
look ahead to rosy times and are definitely still fearful of a
recession.

The Fed has now cut interest rates by a full 1.5% since the
first of the year.  The overnight Fed funds rate now stands at
5.00%; right back to where we were in August of 1999 when the
Fed started fighting what most think was "imaginary inflation"
with a series of rate increased that served to pop the equity
bubble.

In its statements, the Fed also indicated that it is worried
that a combination of excess capacity, faltering global
economies and a falling stock market will soften demand and
production, delaying an economic comeback.  On the other hand,
the Fed sited evidence that the inventory adjustment (the
shrinking of inventories) "appears to be well underway."

But the Fed's biggest carrot to the bulls was that it stated
that it would monitor the economy closely.  To many, this Fed-
speak translated into, "the Fed is not ruling out an inter-
meeting rate cut before its next May 15th FOMC meeting and
will remain on guard for further weakness."

Today's Markets

Going into the 2:15 p.m. EST Fed decision, stocks were mostly
higher.  And at first, it didn't appear as if the Fed decision
was going to have much of an effect on stocks.  Then the
sellers put the hammer down and the market tanked.

The NASDAQ (COMPX) fell 93.74, or 4.80%, to 1857.44.  Volume
came in at 2 billion shares traded and decliners whipped
advancers 2258 to 1375.  Both stats clearly do not point to a
panic sell off, which is probably what the market needs most
in order to turn this ship around.

Big cap techs generally took the brunt of the selling.  Intel
(NASDAQ:INTC) lost $2.44 to $24.56, Sun Microsystems
(NASDAQ:SUNW) fell $1.69 to $17.38 and Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO)
dropped $1.75 to $19.06.  All were losses of more than 8%.

The DOW (INDU) didn't fare much better.  Money fled old-
economy stocks, as investors sought to hide under the only
rock that is left, that being cash.  The DOW lost 238.35, or
2.39%, to 9720.76 as financials, usually the first to rally
after a fed cut, dragged the average lower.  Merrill Lynch
(NYSE:MER) lost $2.75 to $55.75 and J.P. Morgan (NYSE:JPM)
faltered by $2.56 to close at $42.59.

Treasuries finished slightly higher on the heels of the Fed's
rate cut and the subsequent flight out of equities.  The
benchmark 10-year note closed up 13/32 to yield 4.765% and the
30-year bond finished higher by 10/32 to yield 5.27%.

Stocks and Sectors on the Move

As previously mentioned, the Fed put a bit of a hitch in just
about every sector's gitty-up.  The most troubling to
investors, however, has to be the financials, which usually
leads the market higher after a series of rate cuts.  But, on
the other hand, there is absolutely nothing usual about the
current state of the market.  The old market truisms like
don't fight the Fed have failed miserably, leaving even the
pros to ponder what might work next.

Getting back to the financials, Goldman Sach's (NYSE:GS) got
the day off to a fair start for financial stocks by beating
earnings estimates of $1.29 by a wide margin, coming in with
earnings of $1.40/share.  However, the news out of Goldman was
mixed in that it also reported that net income fell because of
loss in investment banking fees and its reported $1.40/share
was a decline over the same quarter's earnings a year ago.  GS
slipped by $3.88 to $87.06 on the day with most of that loss
coming after the Fed report.

Other notables in the banking and brokerage sectors were Wells
Fargo (NYSE:WFC) down $1.18 to $46.85, Citigroup (NYSE:C) off
$2.00 to $44.30, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) down $1.68 to
$51.29, Lehman Brothers (NYSE:LEH) off $3.38 to $65.90 and
Bear Sterns (NYSE:BSC) down $2.00 to $46.75.

The semiconductor sector, as measured by the PHLX
Semiconductor Index (SOX.X) was subjected to bad news out of
KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ:KLAC) in addition to selling off after the
Fed rate cut announcement.  The SOX.X fell 35.71 to 542.05
which is a general area of support for the semis.

KLAC slid on warnings that came out after the close on Monday,
in which the company indicated that it would fall 8-10% below
its current sales estimates and would also fall short of its
third-quarter EPS estimates.  No surprise that the economic
downturn was to blame, but what was very disheartening was
that KLAC was, up until today, the clear relative strength
leader of the whole semiconductor sector.  With KLAC falling
$3.38, or 8.08%, to $38.38, the semis may have some more
patches to fill on the road to recovery (as if it wasn't
already strewn with potholes the side of a VW bug).

In what may be another corporate raspberry directed at the
Fed, upwards of ten companies warned after the bell this
evening.  Were these firms holding onto last hopes, just
waiting to see if we got a 75-basis point cut before they
warned?  Maybe, but bottom line is how many more warnings do
investors have to suffer through before we see real
improvement in business operations?  By the way, I'm not going
go into details on the warnings because most of the companies
are smaller and not widely held.  Besides, I think I'm
becoming more bullish, so these warnings just rain on my
improving mood.

Looking Forward, Always Forward

After today's Fed cut tomorrow's Consumer Price Index release
is going to seem tame.  Still, its not chopped liver.  The Fed
said it is going to be watching closely, and the CPI certainly
enters their equation when considering further cuts.  The CPI
is widely expected to come in at 0.1%; excluding food and
energy it is expected to be 0.2%.

Investors will continue to scrutinize the financials on
Wednesday, as Lehman Brothers (NYSE:LEH), Morgan Stanley Dean
Witter (NYSE:MWD) and Bear Sterns (NYSE:BSC) are all on deck
to report earnings.  Given the current environment, nobody is
expecting anything more than an infield single out of any of
the above players.

Near term, many investors are wondering why they should stick
out their necks and buy stocks, only to have earnings warnings
wish that they were wearing steel turtlenecks.

The bulls basically have three arguments in their basket of
optimism (that's it).  One, stocks should go higher because
the Fed is cutting rates and stimulating the economy (don't
fight the Fed).  Although this one hasn't worked since January
when the Fed started cutting!  Two, stocks should go up
because tax season is almost over and investors will soon stop
selling stocks to pay their hefty tax bills.  Finally, stocks
should go higher because there is an abundant amount of short
sellers out there that will have to cover their positions
should stocks start to tick higher.

None of these "arguments" make me feel good in the long run
except for maybe the Fed cutting rates, and that's only if
they are not too late to turn us around.  Bottom line is that
until the Fed cuts rates enough so that analysts, and more
importantly investors, can look into the future (next year)
with a glimmer of hope in their eyes, sellers will have the
upper hand and stocks shall go lower.

So until fundamentals turn around, Fed cuts may not help.  The
investor is dialed into earnings and will not be placated
until a turnaround at the corporate bottom line is seen.

However, the wildcard according to the Fed still remains in
the hands of the consumer.  As long as the consumer continues
to spend, inventories will be whittled away and companies can
start feeling good about spending money on capital
improvements (CAPX).  CAPX, which is in essence the jumper
cables for the economy, is what drives growth and therefore
stock prices.

Stick to Your Trading Rules in These Tough Times

Craig Seidler
Assistant Editor
www.SplitTrader.com


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Definition of the Day
=====================

Reverse Stock Split

A stock split resulting in a reduction in the number of
outstanding shares.

For the complete definition, please go to:
http://www.splittrader.com/glossary/viewglossary.asp?glossaryid=321



Tuesday's Split Announcements
=============================

Tuesday, March 20, 2001, 2:19 PM EST

What's the Latest Buzz on Splits? Starbucks Announces a 2-for-1

During regular trading today, Starbucks Corporation (Nasdaq:SBUX)
announced a 2-for-1 stock split on its common outstanding shares,
payable April 27 for shareholders of record as of March 30. The
motion was first announced at the Company's Annual Shareholders'
Meeting held earlier today.

For the complete announcement, please go to:
http://www.splittrader.com/announcements/032001_1.asp



=======================================
Wednesday's Expirations by Payable Date
=======================================

GenesisIntermedia (GENI) splits 3:1


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=====================
SplitTrader.com Plays
=====================

The PLAY LEGEND:

SplitTrader.com Play Recommendations.

Updates are just that - updates on continuing plays
New plays are brand new for the newsletter.
Closing plays are plays that we feel have lost the advantage.

You will see:
Stock Symbol, Company Name, Closing Price, (change for the week)
Picked at date and Change since picked

Terms:
BoD = Board of Directors meeting
ADV = Average Daily Volume
dma = daily moving average

On the SplitTrader.com website we have very detailed profiles
for the stocks we play.  Please take the time to visit the site
and look up a stock's profile if you are interested in more
information.
================================================================


=========
NEW PLAYS
=========


NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS 03/20/01
============================

None


NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS 03/20/01
==================================

GDW - Golden West Financial $58.80 +0.55 (+1.88)

GDW showed some remarkable resiliency today in the face of broad
market selling into the close.  The resiliency was even more
impressive in light of the fact that the PHLX Bank Index (BKX)
plummeted 28.67 points to a close of 818.38 following the FOMC's
latest rate cut.  Perhaps the interest in GDW lies in the
possibility that the stock is ripe for a split.  The current share
price is more than $15.00 above the price when the last split was
announced in November 1999.  Another reason traders might be
interersted is that GDW broke out of its 2001 trading range today.
The bottom of the range found excellent support at the 200-DMA of
$51.88.  The top of the range is $59.19.  GDW did pull back below
this resistance.  Therefore, we would be really interested in
initiating a position if GDW can push back above $59.19 tomorrow.
In the event of a pullback, we would be cautiously willing to pick
up the stock if it stays above $54.50.  Today's volume of 1.1
million shares was almost twice the average daily volume.  This is
another good sign that there is interest in owning this stock.
What's more, other technical indicators such as the MACD, OBV and
Money Flow are all strong and point towards continued gains.

Picked on March 20th @ $58.80
Change since picked +0.00
Stop Loss @ $54.50

 


NEW MOMENTUM PLAYS 03/20/01
============================

SIAL - Sigma-Aldrich Corp. $45.44 +0.50 +1.06

Specialty-chemical manufacturer Sigma-Aldrich bucked the overall
market trend to move higher today, as some traders continue to
look for any semblance of safety on the long-side of the market.
What's more, Tuesday marked the third-consecutive day that SIAL
made for higher ground.  Today's move came on better-than-average
volume of 915,000 shares, nearly double the three-month average of
525,000, so there was some conviction behind the buying.  With the
recent rally, SIAL has caught support at what appears to be a
consolidation base at $43.00, which should be bolstered by the 10-
dma at $45.08.  Above, SIAL has immediate resistance at the March
9 intra-day high of $46.06 followed by today's intra-day high of
$47.50.  With the MACD set to turn positive, we wouldn't be
surprised if SIAL takes out immediate resistance sooner rather
than latter.  With that said, traders interested in taking a
position in SIAL could consider an entry point on a move through
the March 9 high of $46.06 on 300,000 shares traded by noon.
Should SIAL fall apart, however, we will limit our losses with a
stop-loss just below the 40-dma at $42.25

Picked March 20th @ $45.44
Change since picked 0.00
Stop Loss @ $42.25

 


=======
UPDATES
=======


SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES 03/20/01
===============================

UCBH - UCBH Holdings Incorporated $52.94 -0.50 (-0.19)

Today's 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed was a step in the right
direction, but Wall Street had hopes of more easing. With
expectations of a 75 basis point cut in interest rates, even the
financial sector showed susceptibility to the Fed's decision. The
NYSE Financial Index (NF) fell 12.82 points or 2.20% to close at
567.71. The broad industry decline did have bearing on UCBH
shares, which finished lower by $0.50 to close at $52.94. We do,
however, believe that selling pressure could be short-lived now
that the federal funds stands at 5 percent, matching its lowest
level since mid-1999. Moving to the chart, today's decline was
accompanied by light daily volume of 92,400 shares, which is
notably less than the three-month average. This indicates that
there is a lack of investors willing to drop shares at current
levels. In addition, the stochastic is still pointing to higher
levels and the OBV is moving higher on positive days. With that
said, should shares trend higher later this week, we'll look for
resistance to emerge at the 30-dma of $54, followed by a harder
challenge at the $55 mark. Support will come at the 50-dma of
$50.78. Look for entry points when shares bounce off support or
break above the 30-dma on volume of at least 75,000 shares traded
by midday.

Picked on March 15th @ $52.63
Change since picked +0.31
Stop Loss @ $49.00

 


SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES 03/20/01
=====================================

CEC - CEC Entertainment Inc. $40.60 -1.40 (+0.20)

CEC Entertainment has been consolidating in the $40-$42 range over
the past week. On Tuesday, shares of CEC traded to an intra-day
high of $42.15 before pulling back to close at its intra-day low
of $40.60 on volume of 69,300 shares. Despite Tuesday's pullback,
CEC has broken its short-term downward trend with two consecutive
higher highs. Given the dearth of stocks for traders long the
market, we are looking for the stock to regain its upward momentum
on heavier volume in the near future. In the meantime, support is
Monday's intra-day low of $40.23 with stronger support at the $40
mark, the February 21st intra-day high. Resistance has moved up to
Monday's intra-day high of $42.00 and then the March 8th intra-day
high of $42.50. A bounce off of $40.23 or a move above $42.00 on
midday volume greater than 80,000 shares may be possible entry
points. Our stops remain at $39.50.

Picked on March 6th @ $41.81
Change since picked -1.21
Stop Loss @ $39.50

 

===

RDN - Radian Group Incorporated $61.99 +0.69 (+0.99)

To assist low and middle income families with a first mortgage,
Radian Group has established a low down payment structure on its
home loans. This greatly improves the chances of its customer's
qualifying for a home and consequently provides RDN with a steady
flow of business. Looking at the chart, RDN shares rallied higher
on Tuesday, advancing 1.12% by the closing bell. The stock did
flirt with higher levels on an intra-day basis, but found a stiff
barrier at the 200-dma of $62.87. Still, today's 1.12% move put
RDN nicely above the 10 and 50-dmas of $62.07 and $61.56,
respectively. The short-term technical indicators also look
strong, with the stochastic now headed higher and the MACD on the
verge of a bullish crossover.  So, with this in mind, we'll look
for an entry point to come should RDN break sharply through the
200-dma on good volume of 250,000 shares traded by noon. Support
will come at the 50-dma and just below at the $60 mark. We'll
continue to keep firm stops at the $59 mark to restrict our
downside risk.

Picked on March 18th @ $61.00
Change since picked +0.99
Stop Loss @ $59.00

 

===

UHS - Universal Health Services $83.59 -1.33 (-0.78)

UHS was very strong for most of the day.  In fact, the stock was
able to hold off the selling hordes for all but the last half hour
of trading.  It almost appeared as if traders said, "What can we
sell next?", and finally knocked UHS down a little bit.
Nevertheless, UHS continues to look like a stock that value
investors will keep buying when the market fear levels subside.
Before the market collapsed, UHS was making a technically
significant move, crossing over its 50-DMA, which closed today at
$85.38.  Although UHS closed below this moving average, the
stock's uptrend remains intact because it stayed above yesterday's
low of $82.00 and moved above yesterday's high of $86.00 during
intra-day trading.  If we see early weakness tomorrow, traders may
consider picking up UHS if it stays above $82.00.  Another good
entry point may present itself if UHS can close above the 50-DMA
accompanied by volume over 300,000 shares.  If this move occurs,
the MACD will likely issue a buy signal.  This would be an
encouraging event that would imply the continuation of the stock's
advance.

Picked on March 15th @ $83.50
Change since picked +0.09
Stop Loss @ $80.00

 


MOMENTUM PLAY UPDATES 03/20/01
===============================

MAT - Mattel Inc. $18.65 +0.36 (+0.95)

Mattel is breaking out after six sessions of sideways trading. On
Tuesday, shares of MAT hit a new 52-week high of $19.05 on strong
volume of 3.97 million shares. Unfortunately, the stock retreated
from its highs to close at $18.65, its highest close since
9/30/99. Daily volume has been picking up over the past two weeks
so MAT could continue to trend higher as we move into earnings
season. From a technical standpoint, support is now up to Friday's
intra-day high of $18.50 with additional support at $17.85, the
10-dma. Resistance is Tuesday's intra-day high of $19.05 and then
$20.12, the 9/29/99 intra-day low. Traders may consider opening
new positions on a bounce off of $18.50 or a move above $19.05 on
volume of at least 1.3 million shares by noon. We are keeping our
stops at $17 to limit potential losses.

Picked on March 15th @ $18.55
Change since picked +0.10
Stop Loss @ $17.00

 


=====
DROPS
=====


SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS 03/20/01
=============================

SBL - Symbol Technologies $45.51 -0.03 (-0.08)

A quick down spike on Monday knocked us out of this volatile
stock.  Curiously, SBL has enjoyed some good news the past couple
of days; nevertheless, the stock has been unable to make any
progress.  Quite simply, technology stocks, even those with
excellent growth pictures and increasing profits are failing to
hold on to investors during this very jittery market.


Picked on March 13th @ $49.65
Profit/Loss -4.40 (9%) (Stopped Monday @ $45.25)
Best Profit +1.75 (4%)

 


SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS 03/20/01
===================================

None


MOMENTUM PLAY DROPS 03/20/01
=============================

JKHY - Jack Henry and Associates Inc. $23.13 -0.25 (-1.19)

Jack Henry & Associates traded to an intra-day high of $25.13 on
Monday morning. However, the stock reversed directions later in
the session. Shares of JKHY traded to an intra-day low of $22.75
on volume of 531,900 shares. We were stopped out at the intra-day
low, so we are closing this play tonight.

Picked on March 18th @ $24.31
Profit/Loss = -1.56 (-6%) (Stopped Monday @ $22.75)
Best Profit = +0.82 (+3%)

 

===

LMT - Lockheed Martin Corp. $34.97 -1.23 (-2.03)

Lockheed Martin Corporation came under pressure on Monday morning.
The stock fell to an intra-day low of $34.68 on volume of 2.21
million shares early in the session. Our stops were triggered at
$35, so we are dropping the stock from our Current Plays list.

Picked on February 4th @ $36.40
Profit/Loss = -1.40 (-4%) (Stopped out Monday @ $35.00)
Best Profit = +3.10 (+9%)

 


WEDNESDAY'S PLAY-OF-THE-DAY
===========================

Tuesday, March 20, 2001
=============================

CEC - CEC Entertainment Inc. $40.60 -1.40 (+0.20)

Tuesday's Comment:

Chuck E. Cheese owner CEC Entertainment has been consolidating in
the $40-$42 range over the past week. On Tuesday, shares of CEC
traded to an intra-day high of $42.15 before pulling back to close
at its intra-day low of $40.60 on volume of 69,300 shares. Despite
Tuesday's pullback, CEC has broken its short-term downward trend
with two consecutive higher highs. Given the dearth of stocks for
traders long the market, we are looking for the stock to regain
its upward momentum on heavier volume in the near future. In the
meantime, support is Monday's intra-day low of $40.23 with
stronger support at the $40 mark, the February 21st intra-day
high. Resistance has moved up to Monday's intra-day high of $42.00
and then the March 8th intra-day high of $42.50. A bounce off of
$40.23 or a move above $42.00 on midday volume greater than 80,000
shares may be possible entry points. Our stops remain at $39.50.

Picked on March 6th @ $41.81
Change since picked -1.21
Stop Loss @ $39.50

 


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DISCLAIMER
==========

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of online stock traders. The newsletter is an information
service only. The information provided herein is not to be
construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind.
The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding how to trade stock
splits. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the
editors and staff of SplitTrader.com may own, buy or sell
securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified
professional before trading in any security. The information
provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is
not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.  SplitTrader.com
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due
to factors beyond our control.

 


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