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Email Version, Section 1, Thursday 03/15/01
The SplitTrader.com Newsletter           Thursday 03/15/2001 1 of 1
Copyright 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

 - Your World Leader for Trading Stock Splits on the Internet -

Posted online for members at: http://www.SplitTrader.com

To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
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http://www.splittrader.com/htmlemail/031501_1.asp
==================================================================

In This Newsletter:
===================

Market Commentary - Consumer Sentiment On Trial
Definition of the Day
Thursday's Split Announcements - MBI
Friday's Expirations
Stock Plays - New - Updates - Drops
Friday's Play-of-the-Day - MAT

==================================================================


Market Commentary
=================

Consumer Sentiment On Trial

Traders beware, before you relax and start making St.
Patrick's Day plans, keep in mind tomorrow will give us
triple-witch combined with a quartet of economic news.  The
four-course breakfast buffet will include the Producer Price
Index, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, Housing Starts
and on the side, a serving of Industrial Production.

Out of all these reports, the maestro of the markets, Mr.
Greenspan, will be most interested to see what figures we get
for the Consumer Sentiment Survey (economists are predicting a
reading of 87.0).  This is because he has mentioned time and
time again how important the consumer is to an economic
turnaround.  All economic reports up to now have shown real
weakness in corporate and industrial spending, but through it
all, the consumer has not hesitated to spend.

These economic reports certainly have the potential to
influence what the Fed decides to do with rates next week.
Herein lies the problem.  Given the importance of these
reports, combined with the rampant pessimistic tone that the
market has taken on, I just don't see a net-positive slant
coming out of tomorrow morning's events.  In other words, the
market has had a way of seeing only the downside to any news
event.

Case in point, if the PPI number comes in high, analysts will
scream stagflation.  If the PPI comes in low, they will scream
recession.  Likewise with the Consumer Sentiment number.  If
it comes in high, the Fed is less likely to cut rates
aggressively.  If it comes in low, analysts will warn of a
crumbling economy.

It's like the whole Japanese bank issue that has been known
about for months that suddenly became an issue for Wall Street
yesterday.  Essentially, Japanese banks, as of the end of
March, are required to mark to market all their stock market
losses.  When doing this, their balance sheets will look even
worse and it is thought that some may teeter over the edge.

Yes, this is certainly an issue in an economy that is more
global in scope than ever, but if markets are even slightly
efficient, why was this not already priced in?  My answer:
the news was priced in, but pessimism and high emotions have
taken over the markets and the old news served to take stocks
lower anyway.  It's not just our market either.  The U.K, Hong
Kong, Belgium and other markets around the world are all
plummeting to new lows.

Today's Markets

The markets got off to a great start today only to fade into
the close.  Many speculated that the morning's strength was
attributed only to short covering.

After opening up 51 points, the NASDAQ (COMPX) proceeded to
sell off for the rest of the day, closing down by 31.38 to
1940.71.  Gaps have come to define the opens on the NASDAQ.
It's the high levels of emotion and the influx of news (profit
warnings, economic reports) that have set us up for this
almost daily pop from the previous day's close.

The DOW (INDU) fared slightly better but also sold off from
its morning levels.  The financials and brokers, after taking
it on the chin yesterday, served to boost the old-economy
average back up over the psychologically important 10,000-
level today. The DOW closed up 57.82 to 10031.28.

Shorter-term treasuries benefited from increased optimism for
aggressive rate cuts and a further flight to safety.  The 10-
year note finished up 11/32 to yield 4.80% while the 30-year
bond closed lower by 1/8 to yield 5.27%.

Stocks and Sectors on the Move

The left-for-dead telecommunications sector rallied today on
the heels of merger speculation out of The Washington Post
involving BellSouth (NYSE:BLS) pursuing Sprint (NYSE:FON).
There was also talk of SBC Communications (NYSE:SBC) looking
into buying Worldcom (WCOM).  All this was enough to get
investors' attention and worked to boost share prices across
the sector.  WCOM added $1.13 to $17.56, SBC finished higher
by $0.71 to $42.82, Qwest Communications (NYSE:Q) rocketed
higher by $2.48 to $37.92 and AT&T (NYSE:T) closed up by $0.93
to $23.39.

Brokers recovered nicely today despite a warning out of
Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCH).  The big brokerage firm said it
doesn't think it will meet current earnings estimates and that
trading was down by 13% sequentially in February.  Chucky S.
should release bad news more often because shares actually
rose 5%, or $0.86 to close at $17.90.

Other brokers to outperform on the day included Merrill Lynch
(NYSE:MER) up $2.81 to $55.51, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) up
$4.04 to $87.95 and Lehman Brothers (NYSE:LEH) up $3.95 to
$65.50.  Most of the brokers, however, remain in a downtrend
and have not been able to hold onto a sustained really since
before the Fed cut in January.

Turning to the wireless sector, it becomes very apparent when
looking at these charts, that investors don't think anyone
will ever buy another cell phone again.  These stocks have
taken a beating and that's putting it mildly.  However, today
Nokia (NYSE:NOK) gave investors a reason to stay on hold when
the company announced that it expects its earnings to be in
line with expectations.  Nokia also mentioned that it is
projecting first-quarter sales to grow by 20%, down from
earlier estimates of 25-30% but still healthy.  Shares of the
handset provider jumped $3.15, or 14.45%, to $24.95.

Looking Forward, Always Forward

With short-term bond yields moving even lower, many market
players are calling for a 75-basis point cut on the March 20th
Fed meeting.  In fact, the Fed futures have priced in a little
better than a 60% chance of a larger than 50-basis point cut
this time around.

With a lot of this talk circulating around trading desks
worldwide, I just hope we are not setting ourselves up for
more disappointment.  I think if we get the 50-basis point cut
that the market doesn't even blink an eye.  If we get the 75-
basis points, I think the market does a knee-jerk short
covering rally, followed by another pullback.  Folks are going
to wonder why such an aggressive cut and are we really in that
much trouble.

With much of the trading as of late being defined by short
rallies followed by more short selling, I think the choppy,
gapping markets will persist for quite awhile, or until we get
a large enough move higher to convince the shorts to finally
quit it and cover their positions.

Be aware that defensive sectors like the consumer staples,
drugs and tobacco are vulnerable to a surprise tech rally.
All the traditional "safe haven" hiding places have been hit
recently, so don't get caught in the trap of assuming that if
tech rallies the worst thing that will happen is that you will
miss out on some gains.  It has been a zero sum game as far as
sectors go recently.

Chart of Colgate Palmolive:



So keep those seatbelts fastened and stick to the green beer
if you lack conviction in the market's direction.  Just don't
turn to the green beer first, and then evaluate your
conviction second.  That usually doesn't work too well.

Trade Smart and Have A Great Weekend

Craig Seidler
Assistant Editor
www.SplitTrader.com


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Definition of the Day
=====================

American Style Option

An option that can be exercised at any time from the date of
purchase to the date of expiration.

For the complete definition, please go to:
http://www.splittrader.com/glossary/viewglossary.asp?glossaryid=7


===================
Split Announcements
===================

Thursday, March 15, 2001, After the Market

MBIA Splits Stock, Increases Cash Dividend

After Thursday's closing bell, MBIA Inc. (NYSE:MBI) announced that
the Company's board of directors approved a 3-for-2 stock split of
its common outstanding shares. The payable date has been set for
April 20, whereby shareholders of record on April 2 will receive
one additional share for each two shares owned.

For the complete announcement, please go to:
http://www.splittrader.com/announcements/031501_1.asp


====================================
Friday's Expirations by Payable Date
====================================

AFLAC Inc. (AFL) splits 2:1
Dynacq International Inc. (DYII) splits 2:1
Engineered Support System (EASI) splits 5:4


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=====================
SplitTrader.com Plays
=====================

The PLAY LEGEND:

SplitTrader.com Play Recommendations.

Play-of-the-Day is our number one play recommendation for the
following trading day.
Updates are just that - updates on continuing plays.
New plays are brand new for the newsletter.
Drops are closing plays that we feel have lost the advantage.

You will see:
Stock Symbol, Company Name, Closing Price, (change for the week)
Picked at date and Change since picked

Terms:
BoD = Board of Directors meeting
ADV = Average Daily Volume
dma = daily moving average

On the SplitTrader.com website we have very detailed profiles
for the stocks we play.  Please take the time to visit the site
and look up a stock's profile if you are interested in more
information.
================================================================


=========
NEW PLAYS
=========


NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS 03/15/01
============================

UCBH - UCBH Holdings Incorporated $52.63 +0.81 (-3.13)

California bank holding company UCBH Holdings (UCBH) specializes
in serving the Asian community in its primary markets, which
include San Francisco, Sacramento and the  Los Angeles. This niche
has paid off tremendously for the bank, which has reported 10
consecutive quarters of double-digit earnings growth. Wall Street
certainly has been impressed with the company's track record, as
all seven firms covering UCBH place its stock in the "Buy" column.
More compelling, the company announced a 2:1 stock split today,
which will be payable on April 10th to shareholders of record on
March 31st. We're anticipating this announcement to attract more
buyers by month's end.  Looking at the chart, UCBH shares signaled
a near-term bottom. Yesterday, the stock produced a sharp bounce
off the half-century mark ($50), which was followed by a gain of
1.57% in today's trading. The short-term technical readings also
point to a turn around, with the stochastic planted firmly in
oversold territory and the OBV trending higher. As for possible
entry points, a move above the converging 10 and 20-dma's of
$54.58 and $54.56 may provide a profitable entry opportunity.
We'll set stops at $49 to limit our downside risk.

Picked on March 15th @ $52.63
Change since picked 0.00
Stop Loss @ $49.00




NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS 03/15/01
==================================

UHS - Universal Health Services $83.50 +1.38 -0.24

UHS is a major hospital owner and operator that is best known for
its acute care and behavioral health centers.  UHS peaked at
$112.93 at the end of December. Although the stock has been a
somewhat lackluster performer since that time, we believe now is
an excellent time to try and snag some profits for two reasons.
First, UHS appears to have successfully tested its 200-DMA of
$80.00 this week.  This event is technically significant and many
value investors (and there are a lot of them these days) look for
these type of bounces before entering a position.  Second, UHS is
a viable split candidate because the stock is trading at prices
well above those when the stock last split.  The most recent split
occurred during the spring of 1996 when the stock was trading at
$56.38.  The OBV and Money Flow are both starting to turn back
positive, which is another good sign that UHS has found support
and is ready to go higher.  The RSI is starting to move back up
from a mild oversold indication.  This fact gives UHS a lot of
room to rally before an overbought condition is threatened.
Some traders may be interested in picking up the stock if UHS can
trade above $83.75 with midday volume near 150,000 shares.

Picked on March 15th @ $83.50
Change since picked +0.00
Stop Loss @ $80.00




NEW MOMENTUM PLAYS 03/15/01
============================

MAT - Mattel, Inc. $18.55 +0.45 (+0.09)

Shares of MAT hit an all-time high of $46.56 on 3/16/98. The stock
then sold off for two years, hitting a low of $8.93 on 3/10/00.
Since then, MAT has made significant changes.  The company has
hired a new CEO and absorbed the cost of its poor acquisition of
The Learning Company. In the past year, Mattel's net income from
continuing operations (up 63% on the year) and the stock price (up
90% over the past 6 months) reflect the changes within the
company. MAT traded to a 52-week high of $18.84 last week, and on
Thursday, the stock closed at its intra-day high of $18.55. We
believe that MAT could continue to hit a string of new 52-week
highs due to its strong momentum and improving fundamentals. From
a technical standpoint, support is the 5-dma at $18.34 with
stronger support at $17.78, the 10-dma. Resistance is the 52-week
high of $18.84 and then possibly $19.50 or $20. Traders may
consider entry points on a bounce off of $18.34 or a breakout
above $18.84 on volume greater than 1.3 million shares by noon. We
are placing stops at $17 as downside protection.

Picked on March 15th @ $18.55
Change since picked +0.00
Stop Loss @ $17.00




=======
UPDATES
=======


SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES 03/15/01
===============================

SBL - Symbol Technologies $48.25 +1.05 (+1.84)

SBL rallied straight to $56.00 after announcing a 3:2 split on
February 27th.  The subsequent pullback to support provided by the
40-DMA of $45.69 has given traders the opportunity to try and
profit from another split run.  It looks like the second run
started today. The split is payable on April 16th.  A move above
today's high of $50.25, accompanied by first hour trading volume
over 300,000, may prove to be another good entry point.  Although
the MACD remains negative, a positive move tomorrow could cause
this indicator to issue a buy signal.  We also like the fact that
the RSI is telling us that there is plenty of room for the stock
to rally before it becomes overbought.

Picked on March 13th @ $49.65
Change since picked -1.40
Stop Loss @ $45.25




SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES 03/15/01
=====================================

CEC - CEC Entertainment Inc. $40.60 -0.18 (-1.40)

CEC Entertainment sold off on Wednesday along with the rest of the
market. Shares of CEC traded to an intra-day low of $40.39 before
bouncing back to a close of $40.78 on volume of 87,700 shares. On
Thursday, the stock dipped below the 20-dma to close at $40.60 on
volume of 108,000 shares. CEC has developed a short-term downward
trend on light volume over the past 6 sessions so it may continue
to fall. On a positive note, the stock is staying inside of its
recent $40-$43 trading range. Hopefully, CEC will be able to rally
from here as we are at the lower end of the range. For now,
support has moved down to Thursday's intra-day low of $40.23 with
stronger support at the $40 mark, the February 21st intra-day
high. Resistance is Thursday's intra-day high of $40.95 and then
Wednesday's intra-day high of $41.60. Look for entry points on a
bounce off of $40.23 or a move above $40.90 on volume greater than
80,000 shares by noon. We are keeping our stops at $39.50 to limit
potential losses.

Picked on March 6th @ $41.81
Change since picked -1.21
Stop Loss @ $39.50




MOMENTUM PLAY UPDATES 03/15/01
===============================

LMT - Lockheed Martin Corp. $37.50 -0.14 (-1.06)

Lockheed Martin has been under pressure over the last week after
hitting a 52-week high on March 8th. On Thursday, shares of LMT
spent the entire day in negative territory. However, the stock
bounced off of its intra-day low of $36.15 to close at $37.50, its
intra-day high. LMT closed below its 20-dma for the first time
since January 24th and it is gaining downward momentum on strong
volume. The stock was due for some profit taking but that should
not last much longer as the stock approaches its last breakout
point at $35.25. In the meantime, support is Thursday's intra-day
low of $36.15 with additional support at $35.69, the 50-dma.
Resistance is now the 5-dma at $38.21 and then Tuesday's intra-day
high of $38.90. Traders may consider starting new plays on a
bounce off of $36.15 or a move above $38.21 on midday volume of at
least 800,000 shares. Our stops are holding steady at $35.

Picked on February 4th @ $36.40
Change since picked +1.10
Stop Loss @ $35.00



===

UVV - Universal Corporation $37.58 -0.57 (-1.41)

Universal has pulled back a bit this week along with the rest of
the market.  If the profit taking trend continues tomorrow, UVV
may test support just slightly above $37.00.  We are expecting the
rotation out of "safety" stocks will end soon and UVV will take on
the task of resuming its uptrend.  A close above the 10-DMA of
$38.34, accompanied by volume approaching 75,000 shares would be
an encouraging sign that the pullback is over and UVV is poised to
move higher next week.  The RSI, which had been hovering near
overbought territory, has pulled back. This fact affords UVV the
opportunity to move higher without being encumbered with an
overbought condition.

Picked on March 11th @ $38.99
Change since picked -1.41
Stop Loss @ $37.00




=====
DROPS
=====


SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS 03/15/01
=============================

None


SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS 03/15/01
===================================

AYE - Allegheny Energy Incorporated $45.50 +0.54 (-2.02)

We were expecting that Lehman Brothers "buy" rating on AYE would
reverse recent weakness in the stock and encourage some buyers to
jump in. The news, however, did not produce the scenario we were
anticipating, as a sharp gap lower at the open stopped us out at
$45.80. This weakness was likely due to Wednesday's sell-off in
the NYSE Utility Index (NNA), which posted a 3% loss on the day.
With that said, we say good-bye to AYE.

Picked on February 22nd @ $48.22
Profit/Loss = -2.72 (-6%) (Stopped Wednesday @ $45.80)
Best Profit = +0.78 (+2%)



===

OAT - Quaker Oats Company $97.24 -0.51 (-1.56)

We entered OAT on the theory that the stock's upward trend would
continue. On the day we picked the stock, shares had just broken
into new territory and set a new all time high of $99.33.
Unfortunately, a close above this stubborn level was never
reached. That aside, the stock did offer us a couple of quick
intra-day plays off the 50-dma, before our stop of $96 was finally
taken out.

Picked on March 8th @ $99.33
Profit/Loss = -3.33 (-3%) (Stopped Thursday @ $96.00)
Best Profit = -0.21 (-0%)



===

PFGC - Performance Food Group  $47.56 +1.19 (-1.31)

Performance Food  continued to slide on Wednesday. The stock fell
to an intra-day low of $45.94, triggering our stops along the way.
We were stopped out at $47, so we are dropping PFGC tonight.

Picked on February 25th @ $50.13
Profit/Loss = -3.13 (-6%) (Stopped Wednesday @ $47.00)
Best Profit = +4.38 (+9%)




MOMENTUM PLAY DROPS 03/15/01
=============================

BDX - Becton, Dickinson and Co. $33.90 -0.22 (-2.10)

BDX suffered from some more profit taking and slipped below our
stop of $34.50 on Wednesday. In our last report, we suggested that
BDX was looking a little risky due to the stock's inability to
stay above the 50-DMA of $35.00. It turned out that we were right.

Picked on February 11th @ $37.03
Profit/Loss -2.53 (-7%) (Stopped on Wednesday @ $34.50)
Best Profit +2.25 (+6%)




========================
Friday's Play-of-the-Day
========================

Thursday, March 15, 2001
=============================

MAT - Mattel, Inc. $18.55 +0.45 (+0.09)

Thursday's Comment:

Mattel hit an all-time high of $46.56 on 3/16/98. The stock then
sold off the subsequent two years, hitting a low of $8.93 on
3/10/00. Since then, MAT has made significant changes, which have
made a world of difference.  The company has hired a new CEO and
absorbed the cost of its poor acquisition of The Learning
Company.  Over the past year, MAT's net income from continuing
operations has increase 63 percent while its stock price has
appreciated 90 percent. MAT traded to a 52-week high of $18.84
last week, and on Thursday, the stock closed at its intra-day
high of $18.55. We believe that MAT could continue to climb
higher due to its strong momentum and improving fundamentals.
From a technical standpoint, support is the 5-dma at $18.34 with
stronger support at $17.78, the 10-dma. Resistance is the 52-week
high of $18.84 and then possibly $19.50 or $20. Traders may
consider entry points on a bounce off of $18.34 or a breakout
above $18.84 on volume greater than 1.2 million shares by noon.
We are placing stops at $17 as downside protection.

Picked on March 15th @ $18.55
Change since picked +0.00
Stop Loss @ $17.00




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==========
DISCLAIMER
==========

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of online stock traders. The newsletter is an information
service only. The information provided herein is not to be
construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind.
The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding how to trade stock
splits. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the
editors and staff of SplitTrader.com may own, buy or sell
securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified
professional before trading in any security. The information
provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is
not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.  SplitTrader.com
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due
to factors beyond our control.

 


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