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Email Version, Section 1, Tuesday 03/13/2001
The SplitTrader.com Newsletter          Tuesday 03/13/2001 1 of 1
Copyright 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

  - Your World Leader for Trading Stock Splits on the Internet -

Posted online for members at: http://www.SplitTrader.com

To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:

http://www.splittrader.com/htmlemail/031301_1.asp
================================================================

In This Newsletter:
===================

Market Commentary - Market Must Be Down
Definition of the Day
Tuesday's Split Announcements - None
Wednesday's Expirations
Plays - New - Updates - Drops
Wednesday's Play-of-the-Day - LMT

==================================================================


Market Commentary
=================

Market Must Be Down

I know this to be true now because Lou Dobbs made his token
appearance as the headline guest on the Today show this
morning.  I usually don't watch morning television other than
to catch the jabs Mark Haines lays on Joe Kernen on CNBC but
this morning, as I searched for a weather prediction, all the
talk shows were headlining the market turbulence.

As Matt Lauer drilled Lou with probing questions (most of
which have been asked for almost a year now) I couldn't help
but think that this was a message to Joe Public not to panic.
Of course things have bad before the NASDAQ dropped below
2000, but it seemed that the highly psychological break down
through this level on Monday was enough to put the markets in
the headlines again.

This highlighting of the market's malaise may actually serve
to provide us with the final sell off that we need to gain
some traction here and go higher for at least a while.  The
weak holders may use this break through 2000 as an excuse to
throw in the towel.  On the other side of the coin, many long-
term investors have targeted the 2000 level as a place to step
up to the plate and buy.

No matter what the small investor thinks, in the end it is the
institutional buying and selling that moves the market.  To
that end, it doesn't appear as if the mutual fund managers are
positioning themselves for a turnaround anytime soon.

In a recent survey of mutual fund managers, only 18% of U.S.
managers expect a more healthy earnings picture in 2001 and
only 10% expect a "V" type recovery in 2001.  For the
uninitiated, a "V" recovery is one that rockets straight off a
bottom.  Instead of a "V" recovery, many analysts are now
calling for a more prolonged recovery off the bottom or an "L"
recovery.  I don't know about you, but whatever letter you
believe will typify the bottom, I'd just like to see the
"recovery" part of the equation come to fruition, and soon!

Today's Markets

On Tuesday, investors were successful at plugging the holes in
the dam that had caused the major indices to leak red all over
Wall Street during Monday's session.  Buyers finally stepped
in after Monday's sell off to scoop up tech bargains.

The NASDAQ (COMPX) rebounded by 91.40, or 4.75% to close back
above the important 2000 level at 2014.78.  Volume came in at
a healthy 2.1 billion shares and advancers beat decliners by
2092 to 1659.

Over in the DOW (INDU) things got off to a slow start but the
burners kicked on in the afternoon session to take the old
economy average higher.  The DOW added 82.55, or 0.81%, to
10290.80.  It spent much of the morning in negative territory
as money flowed into tech stocks; however, it was boosted by
late day buying in General Electric (NYSE:GE), J.P. Morgan
(NYSE:JPM) and International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM).
The stocks closed up $2.73, $1.91 and $2.90 respectively.

Treasuries took a rest after recent gains as interest once
again turned back to equities.  The 10-year benchmark bond
closed down 11/32 to yield 4.94% and the 30-year note lost
20/32 to yield 5.34%.

We also received some economic news today in the form of the
February retail sales figures.  Sales for February dipped
slightly by 0.2%, but this was more a function of a
simultaneously huge upward revision in the January sales
figures.  Sales in January were revised up to 1.3% from the
previously released number of 0.7%.  All in all these reports
point to a consumer that is still spending and this is good
news for an economy that needs the consumer on its side to
avoid an extended recession.

Stocks and Sectors on the Move

Most all technology sectors saw a good bounce off extremely
oversold levels today.  The PHLX Semiconductor Index clawed
its way back by 36.13 to close above 600 at 612.51.  Some
standouts in the sector included KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ:KLAC) up
$2.56 to $43.81, Micron Technology (NYSE:MU) up $3.29 to
$44.05 and Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD) up $1.05 to
$23.78.

Networking stocks also received a collective group hug from
investors today.  Stocks in the sector were bid up today on
the heels of sizeable losses on Monday.  Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO)
recouped $2.56, ending today's session at $21.38.  John
Chambers spoke today at the Merrill Lynch Global
Communications Conference, essentially saying that new orders
continue to be soft and that this slowdown would be a two-
quarter phenomenon at minimum.  But, in a show of confidence
in the long-term outlook of the company, Chambers indicated
that Cisco would consider reinstating a share buyback program.

Bucking the decidedly upbeat tone on the day were shares of
Tyco International (NYSE:TYC).  The big conglomerate's shares
fell $3.87 to $46.83 after the company announced that it is
purchasing finance company, CIT Group (NYSE:CIT), for
approximately $9.2 billion in stock.  The drop in Tyco shares
was due in most part to worries over the dilution stemming
from the stock-swap acquisition.  Tyco plans to use the CIT's
services to provide vendor financing within its other areas of
business, including telecommunications, electrical equipment
and security systems.

Also flying into the market's headwind today were airline
stocks.  Delta Airlines (NYSE:DAL) warned of weaker profits,
sending most airline stocks into a landing pattern.  Delta
warned that, due to a weak economy, it would lose $0.70-
$0.90/share instead of the expected profits of $0.46/share.
That's like landing at Logan instead of Laguardia!  Needless
to say the stock took a hit.  DAL closed off $1.64, or 3.81%,
to $41.46.  United Airlines (NYSE:U) followed suit, falling
$1.10, or 3.3%, to $32.20 and United Airlines (NYSE:UAL)
descended by $1.64, or 4.28%, landing at $36.72.

Looking Forward, Always Forward

Wednesday brings with it the January Business Inventory
report.  Although the business inventory report is not usually
market moving, as we get closer to the March 20th Fed meeting,
all economic reports take on added weight.  January business
inventories are seen coming in unchanged from December's
levels.

The real test going forward is to see whether the DOW and
NASDAQ can rally together or if one has to suffer at the
expense of the other.  Recently, the NASDAQ appears to have
started to drag down even the old economy stocks.  We need to
see evidence of this dwindle, since along with the retail
investor losing confidence, if we get into an irrational
market where even valuations go out the door, then we are in
trouble.

Chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average:



While the market is still in repair mode and while earnings
warnings still are a real threat, traders should still be in
"tread lightly" mode.  This means going into trades with less
than your normal position and closely monitoring sectors for
hints as to where the money is flowing.

Trade Smart and Keep Stops In Place

Craig Seidler
Assistant Editor
www.SplitTrader.com


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Definition of the Day
=====================

Debit Spread

A spread option position in which the price of an option sold is
less than the price of the option bought.

For the complete definition, please go to:
http://www.splittrader.com/glossary/viewglossary.asp?glossaryid=94



Tuesday's Split Announcements
=============================

None



=======================================
Wednesday's Expirations by Payable Date
=======================================

Bank of Montreal (BMO) splits 2:1


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=====================
SplitTrader.com Plays
=====================

The PLAY LEGEND:

SplitTrader.com Play Recommendations.

Updates are just that - updates on continuing plays
New plays are brand new for the newsletter.
Closing plays are plays that we feel have lost the advantage.

You will see:
Stock Symbol, Company Name, Closing Price, (change for the week)
Picked at date and Change since picked

Terms:
BoD = Board of Directors meeting
ADV = Average Daily Volume
dma = daily moving average

On the SplitTrader.com website we have very detailed profiles
for the stocks we play.  Please take the time to visit the site
and look up a stock's profile if you are interested in more
information.
================================================================


=========
NEW PLAYS
=========


NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS 03/13/01
============================

SBL - Symbol Technologies $49.65 +3.67 (+3.24)

Symbol Technologies' scanning products have become indispensable
for a myriad number of industries, ranging from heavy
manufacturing to retail package delivery.  A 3:2 split was
announced on February 27th when the stock was trading at $41.82.
The split will be made payable on April 16th. SBL might resume its
split run, now that the market appears to have put in a short-term
bottom.  The stock initially took off following the split
announcement and peaked at $56.00 a few days later.  After a
subsequent pullback, SBL appears poised to move higher.  The MACD
survived a test yesterday and has now issued a buy signal.  The
RSI has plenty of room to support a rally before indicating an
overbought condition.  What's more, today's low print of $45.75
successfully tested trendline support.  Any positive move
tomorrow, accompanied by first hour trading volume over 200,000
shares, may provide possible entry opportunities.

Picked on March 13th @ $49.65
Change since picked +0.00
Stop Loss @ $45.25




NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS 03/13/01
==================================

CEC - CEC Entertainment Inc. $41.81 -0.14 (-0.19)

CEC Entertainment Inc. owns, operates, and franchises over 350
Chuck E. Cheese restaurants/entertainment centers in 45 states.
The stock has performed well over the past year. Shares of CEC hit
an all-time high of $42.22 on March 7th, representing a 116% gain
from last year's low of $19.50 hit on 2/24/00. CEC has been
consolidating after reaching its all time high just last week, and
we believe that the stock could be ready for another breakout. We
are also looking for a possible split announcement out of the next
BoD meeting, or with its May earnings release. The company has
enough shares for a split with 100 million shares authorized and
34.2 million shares issued and the stock is trading above historic
split range. CEC announced its last split on 6/24/99 when the
stock was trading at $40.38. Going forward, support is the 10-dma
at $41.62 with additional support at $40.56, the 20-dma.
Resistance is the March 8th intra-day high of $42.50 and then the
all-time high of $43.22. A bounce off of $41.62 or a move above
$42.50 on midday volume greater than 80,000 shares may be possible
entry points. We plan to place stops at $39.50 as downside
protection.

Picked on March 6th @ $41.81
Change since picked +0.00
Stop Loss @ $39.50




NEW MOMENTUM PLAYS 03/13/01
============================

None


=======
UPDATES
=======


SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES 03/13/01
===============================

None


SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES 03/13/01
=====================================

AYE - Allegheny Energy Incorporated $46.13 -0.60 (-1.39)

We we thought that a recent "buy" rating from a Lehman Brothers
would turn the recent tide of selling in AYE , but it just wasn't
so.  Instead, AYE shares continued to tread lower on the day,
losing $0.60 to close at $46.13. Still, this late in the day
announcement may gather some buying interest in tomorrow's
trading. Furthermore, the intra-day chart suggests that a surplus
of buyers are picking up shares just above the $46 mark.  So,
should a reversal from current levels unfold, we'll look for
initial resistance to now crop up at the 10-dma of $47.12, trailed
by a tougher challenge at the $48 mark. Recent highs near $48 will
also put forth resistance.  As far as entry points are concerned,
we'll look for AYE shares to move through these points, when
volume of 250,000 shares is traded by midday. Continue to hold
firm stops at $45.94.

Picked on February 22nd @ $48.22
Change since picked -2.09
Stop Loss @ $45.94



===

OAT - Quaker Oats Company $97.78 -0.22 (-1.02)

On the day, shares of the Chicago-based OAT continued to
consolidate near the $98 mark. During today's trading, the stock
gave a sharp intra-day bounce off the 50-dma ($96.44) and formed a
bullish hammer candlestick formation. As many of our readers might
already know, hammer formations can sometimes signal an impending
reversal of a stock. Still, what has really captured our attention
has been the lightness in volume over the past three trading days.
The stock's three-month average volume is 704,000 shares per day.
However, over the past three sessions, OAT has logged an average
of just 520,000 shares. We feel this is a good indication of a
lack of sellers in the stock. Bearing these indications in mind,
we'll look for an upside move to encounter resistance at the 5-dma
of $98.41 and then at the $99.33 mark (all-time high). Support
comes in at the 50-dma of $96.44. Look for entries to come when
the stock breaks above resistance or bounces from support on
strong volume of 350,000 shares traded by noon. We'll continue to
hold a firm stop at the $96.00 mark.

Picked on March 8th @ $99.33
Change since picked -1.55
Stop Loss @ $96.00



===

PFGC - Performance Food Group $47.75 +0.19 (-1.13)

Food product manufacturer Performance Food Group Company has been
struggling after hitting an all-time high of $54.50 on March 2nd.
On Tuesday, shares of PFGC traded to an intra-day high of $48.13
before pulling back to close at $47.75 on light volume of 54,100
shares. The stock has made seven consecutive lower highs and four
consecutive lower lows on weak volume. PFGC fell below the 50-dma
on Monday, so it could remain in a downward trend until the volume
returns. Until then, support is Tuesday's intra-day low of $47.25
with additional support at the 100-dma, currently at $46. However,
we plan to exit if the stock traded below $47. Resistance is the
20-dma at $49.16 and then $50.38, the 10-dma. Traders may consider
entry points on a bounce off of $47.25 or a move above $49.16 on
volume greater than 70,000 shares by noon. We are leaving our
stops at $47 to limit potential losses.

Picked on February 25th @ $50.13
Change since picked -2.38
Stop Loss @ $47.00




MOMENTUM PLAY UPDATES 03/13/01
===============================

BDX - Becton, Dickinson and Co. $34.98 -0.53 (-1.02)

BDX has been relatively ignored the past two days during the
market's wild gyrations.  Health care stocks have been generally
outperforming the market this year due to their recession
resistant nature.  They've also been attractive because of their
relatively low valuations. As for BDX, we are a little bit
concerned because the stock closed just slightly below its 50-DMA
of $35.06 today.  What's more, the OBV and Money Flow are still
strong but appear to be moving sideways after a long-term ascent.
The bottom line is that BDX needs to make a positive move, perhaps
as soon as tomorrow morning, or else our stop at $34.50 will be
executed.  A reversal of the stock's mild pullback will likely be
over if BDX can rally above its 50-DMA and its 10-DMA of $35.53.
If this occurs tomorrow,  we will become more comfortable with
this position.

Picked on February 11th @ $37.03
Change since picked -2.05
Stop Loss @ $34.50



===

LMT - Lockheed Martin Corp. $38.34 -0.65 (-0.22)

Lockheed Martin has been consolidating for the past three
sessions. On Tuesday, J.P. Morgan (JPM) initiated coverage of
eight aerospace and defense companies. Lockheed Martin was given a
"market performer" rating and a $38 price target, 99 cents below
Monday's closing price. Shares of LMT fell to an intra-day low of
$37.55 before bouncing off of the 20-dma to a close of $38.34 on
volume of 1.61 million shares. LMT has lost some of its momentum,
but its upward trend is still healthy after a successful test of
major support at the 20-dma on Tuesday. For now, support is the
10-dma at $38.18 with stronger support at $37.58, the 20-dma.
Resistance has fallen to Tuesday's intra-day high of $38.90 and
then Monday's intra-day high of $39.41. Look for bounce off of
$38.18 or a move above $38.90 on midday volume of at least 800,000
shares before opening new positions. We are keeping our stops at
$35 as downside protection.

Picked on February 4th @ $36.40
Change since picked +1.94
Stop Loss @ $35.00



===

UVV - Universal Corporation $38.68 -0.14 (-0.31)

UVV suffered through a somewhat volatile day, at least by its
usually nonvolatile standards.  The drop to $37.80 early in the
trading session may have afforded some of you the opportunity to
pick up the stock at a more favorable price.  The drop to this
price and the subsequent rally has established a nice support
price just below $38.00.  If UVV can move above the 5-DMA of
$38.72 in the early going tomorrow,  the stock could well be on
its way to testing the resistance offered by the recently
established high of $39.20.  One note of caution, though, the MACD
did issue a sell signal today.  Therefore, we would be cautious
about adding positions if UVV drops below today's low of $37.80.

Picked on March 11th @ $38.99
Change since picked -0.31
Stop Loss @ $37.00




=====
DROPS
=====


SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS 03/13/01
=============================

BAX - Baxter International $91.90 +1.65 (-1.00)

On Monday, the broad markets sold off sharply with both the Dow
Jones Industrial Average (INDU) and the NASDAQ Composite Index
(COMPX) down triple digits. During this flood of selling, BAX fell
#3.32 to close at $90.25. From this level, it didn't take much of
a fall to hit our stop of $89, which is exactly what happened in
today's trading.

Picked on March 1st @ $92.61
Profit/Loss = -3.61 (-4%) (Stopped out Tuesday @ $89.00)
Best Profit = +2.59 (+3%)



===

LTR - Loews Corporation $113.89 -0.19 (-2.88)

Loews Corporation was met with heavy resistance this week after
hitting an all-time of $117.10 on Friday. On Tuesday, shares of
LTR traded to an intra-day low of $112.90 before bouncing back
late in the session. We were stopped out at $113, so we are
dropping LTR tonight.

Picked on February 27th @ $106.40
Profit/Loss = + 6.60  (+6%) (Stopped Tuesday @ $113.00)
Best Profit = +10.70 (+10%)



===

GVA - Granite Construction Inc. $32.77 -0.89 (-$1.78)

After GVA survived Monday's wicked broad-market sell-off, we
thought we might be in this play for the long-haul.  That didn't
turn out to be the case, though.  We were stopped out of GVA today
after it trended lower with the Dow Jones Industrial during the
first half of the session.  Still, we were able to exit GVA with a
small profit.

Picked on February 25th @ $33.07
Profit/Loss  +0.43 (1%) (Stopped Tuesday @ $33.50)
Best Profit  +2.41 (7%)




SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS 03/13/01
===================================

IGT - International Game Technology $52.28 -2.18 (-3.37)

Either IGT was unfairly cursed by having the word "technology" in
its name or investors were simply looking for anything they could
sell for a profit during yesterday's steep market slide.  That
said, we are pleased to take a profit, considering the recently
dismal performance of the stock market.  Some of you may be
interested in jumping back on board if IGT can find support around
its 50-DMA of $50.44.  Bounces off this trend line have proven to
be quite profitable throughout IGT's lengthy ascent.

Picked on February 20th @ $53.52
Profit/Loss +1.23 (2%) (Stopped  Monday @ $54.75)
Best Profit +3.73 (7%)



===

PII - Polaris Industries Inc. $47.05 -1.95 (-3.09)

PII was another one of our plays that was able to avoid
yesterday's free-fall only to succumb in today's morning Dow
Industrial sell-off.  Unlike the Dow, though, PII was unable to
recover and continued to sell-off through most of the day.  We
will exit PII with a small loss, which is unfortunate because we
had a small gain in this stock up until today's capitulation.

Picked on February 13th @ $48.70
Profit/Loss  -0.70 (1%) (Stopped Tuesday @ $48.00)
Best Profit  +2.95 (6%)



===

WFT - Weatherford International $55.15 -1.95 (-2.86)

Weatherford International announced that it has acquired Tesco
Corporation's underbalanced drilling (UBD) business for $33
million on Monday. Although the deal is not very large, the news
had a negative effect on the stock. WFT traded as low as $54.64
during Tuesday's session. Our stops were triggered at $55, so we
are removing WFT from our Current Play list.

Picked on March 6th @ $56.80
Profit/Loss = -1.80 (-3%) (Stopped Tuesday @ $55.00)
Best Profit = +2.15 (+4%)




MOMENTUM PLAY DROPS 03/13/01
=============================

ELY - Callaway Golf Corporation $24.80 -1.20 (-1.71)

It looks like ELY may have encountered a near-term top with its
recent rally to the $27 mark. Starting with a slow pullback from
this level, shares picked up momentum on Tuesday and hit our stop
of $25.50. We were, however, able to lock in a gain of 6% on our
play. This is encouraging, given the significant market sell-off.

Picked on February 25th @ $23.99
Profit/Loss = +1.51 (+6%) (Stopped Tuesday @ $25.50)
Best Profit = +3.19 (+13%)



===

PHCC - Priority Healthcare Corporation $35.00 -3.00 (-4.63)

PHCC's downtrend didn't stop today, as the stock sold off hard for
most of the day.  We were actually fortunate to get out at our
stop-loss of $39.00 yesterday because PHCC gapped down to open at
$37.50 today to trade lower through most of the session.  With
that said, we will keep an eye on PHCC for future trading
opportunities.

Picked on March 4th @ $42.50
Profit/Loss  -3.50 (8%) (Stopped Monday @ $39.00)
Best Profit  +2.00 (5%)



===

TX - Texaco, Inc. $68.30 -1.01 (-1.64)

TX has turned out to be a catch-22 for us.  As many readers are
aware, we've been preaching the merits of keeping stop-losses
tight.  For the most part, this strategy has work well by allowing
us to lock in gains while limiting our downside.  However, in TX's
case, it may have been better to keep the stop-loss a little
loose.  We were stopped out at $68 within the first hour of
trading, as TX traded down to $67.60.  Unfortunately, though, we
missed the rebound that took place later in the session.  Still,
we are satisfied to exit this play with a $3.10 gain.

Picked on February 18th at $64.90
Profit/Loss  +3.10 (5%) (Stopped Tuesday @ $68.00)
Best Profit  +5.31 (8%)




WEDNESDAY'S PLAY-OF-THE-DAY
===========================

Tuesday, March 13, 2001
=============================

LMT - Lockheed Martin Corp. $38.34 -0.65 (-0.22)

Tuesday's Comment:

Lockheed Martin has been consolidating for the past three
sessions. On Tuesday, J.P. Morgan (JPM) initiated coverage of
eight aerospace and defense companies. Lockheed Martin was given
a "market performer" rating and a $38 price target, 99 cents
below Monday's closing price. Shares of LMT fell to an intra-day
low of $37.55 before bouncing off of the 20-dma to a close of
$38.34 on volume of 1.61 million shares. LMT has lost some of its
momentum, but its upward trend is still healthy after a
successful test of major support at the 20-dma on Tuesday. For
now, support is the 10-dma at $38.18 with stronger support at
$37.58, the 20-dma. Resistance has fallen to Tuesday's intra-day
high of $38.90 and then Monday's intra-day high of $39.41. Look
for bounce off of $38.18 or a move above $38.90 on midday volume
of at least 800,000 shares before opening new positions. We are
keeping our stops at $35 as downside protection.

Picked on February 4th @ $36.40
Change since picked +1.94
Stop Loss @ $35.00




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DISCLAIMER
==========

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of online stock traders. The newsletter is an information
service only. The information provided herein is not to be
construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind.
The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding how to trade stock
splits. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the
editors and staff of SplitTrader.com may own, buy or sell
securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified
professional before trading in any security. The information
provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is
not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.  SplitTrader.com
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due
to factors beyond our control.

 


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