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Email Version, Section 1, Tuesday 03/06/2001
The Newsletter          Tuesday 03/06/2001 1 of 1
Copyright 2001, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

  - Your World Leader for Trading Stock Splits on the Internet -

Posted online for members at:

To view this email newsletter in HTML format with imbedded
charts and graphs, click here:

In This Newsletter:

Market Commentary - Baffling Bounce
Definition of the Day
Tuesday's Split Announcements - None
Wednesday's Expirations
Plays - New - Updates - Drops
Wednesday's Play-of-the-Day - IGT


Market Commentary

Baffling Bounce

Can I get a side of doubt with that rally?  Rather than buy on
the NASDAQ bounce today, many investors chose instead to sit
back and do some head scratching, contemplating whether or not
this was just another head fake, dead cat bounce, or sucker
rally.  No matter what you choose to call the bounce that we
saw today, few can argue against the fact that an oversold
rally was far overdue.

Today was the type of day on Wall Street that brought out
prophets from both the bull and the bear camps.  The bulls
were of course trumpeting the fact that the semiconductor
sector (SOX.X) was able to rally in the face of more bad news.
After all, stocks rallying on bad news is a sure sign of a
bottom, right?  Well, nothing new here.  We've all hear this
reasoning from the bulls before, but nonetheless it was at
least a hopeful sign that was indeed heartening enough to
bring some of that sidelined cash back into the market.

The bears, on the other hand, were growling about the
continued poor fundamentals and lack of visibility.  They also
argued that this rally was a combination of short covering and
relief of a technically oversold condition in the market,
especially the NASDAQ.

The big question is whether or not the NASDAQ can string
together three up days in a row.  Although not technically
significant, a NASDAQ hat trick would go a long way towards
restoring battered egos and may just serve to encourage a more
believable upside move in the NASDAQ.

Today's Markets

Many a sector saw good buying interest today, which was a sign
that new money was coming into the market, rather than the
musical chairs, sector rotation that we have been witnessing
for so long now.

The NASDAQ (COMPX) opened up 60 points today and put in what
can be dubbed a "strong" session.  That is until it proceeded
to sell off into the close.  The sell off was yet another sign
that investors continue to sell into strength but we will take
solace in the fact that the NASDAQ held onto most of its gains
on the day.  The index closed up 61.51, or 2.87%, finishing at
2204.43 on volume of 1.9 billion shares.  Another good sign
for the NASDAQ is that advancers trounced decliners 2303 to

Over in the DOW (INDU) things were not as exciting, with the
average moving up 28.92 to 10591.22.  Volume came in at 1
billion shares on the NYSE and advancers edged out decliners
1854 to 1193.  The DOW suffered from a basic lack of buying
interest in the tobaccos, drugs and financials.  Phillip
Morris (NYSE:MO) finished down $0.50 to $48.83, Merck
(NYSE:MRK) dropped $2.08 to $77.45 and American Express
(NYSE:AXP) lost $0.30 to $42.99.

Treasuries edged higher today, gaining a foothold after
slipping for the past two sessions.  The 10-year note closed
up by 3/32 to yield 4.97% while the 30-year bond gained a mere
1/32 to yield 5.375%.

We also saw the release of the revised fourth-quarter
productivity numbers this morning.  Productivity was revised
lower, from a rise of 2.4% to a rise of 2.2%.  This may
indicate that some companies had turned away from utilizing
high tech solutions in order to preserve capital in light of
the economic downturn.

Stocks and Sectors on the Move

As mentioned, the semiconductor stocks continued to dig
themselves out of a hole despite sweeping downgrades across
the sector.  The chip sector (SOX.X) took revenue warnings
from Xilinx (NASDAQ:XLNX) and Varian Semiconductor
(NASDAQ:VSEA) in stride and coasted right through a profit
shortfall warning from TriQuint Semiconductor (NASDAQ:TQNT).
The SOX.X gained 33.92 on the day to close at 646.26,
continuing to bounce off the December lows.

Some movers within the sector today include Intel
(NASDAQ:INTC) up $1.13 to $31.50, Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN)
up $1.40 to $36.10, Xilinx (NASDAQ:XLNX) up $1.94 to $45.19
and KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ:KLAC) up $3.25 to $45.00.

Another sector that moved higher today despite bad news was
the brokerage sector as measured by the AMEX Broker/Dealer
Index (XBD.X).  Salomon Smith Barney lowered its first-quarter
estimates on Lehman Brothers (NYSE:LEH), Merrill Lynch
(NYSE:MER) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), basing their decision
upon a weak February for the firms.  LEH gained $1.81 to
$70.10, MER added $1.10 to $60.88 and GS popped $3.20 to
$95.35.  The XBD.X closed higher by 13.94 to 529.53 after
finally finding support at the 510-level recently.  Keep in
mind; this index was at 650 just over a month ago.

Hardware stocks also kicked it into high gear today.  The
Hardware Index (XCI.X) vaulted 37.18, or 6.9%, to close at
867.09.  Contributing to the bounce were shares of Dell
Computer (NADSAQ:DELL), which rocketed $2.75 to %26.19, Compaq
(NYSE:CPQ) which gained $2.10 to $22.17 and Apple Computer
(NASDAQ:AAPL), which added $1.13 to $21.50.

Looking Forward, Always Forward

Wednesday we get the Consumer Credit number released at 3 p.m.
ET.  Investors will be looking to see that the consumer is
still spending and not pulling a deer in the headlights due to
the market being down so much.  Economists expect consumer
credit for February to come in at $5.3 billion.

While digging and sifting for signs of a turnaround, I noticed
a positive divergence in the SOX.X and the COMPX.  While the
COMPX has been steadily making new lows, the semis have found
support and have bounced higher.  I have spoken in the past of
the importance of the SOX.X as a leading indicator of the
COMPX.  The SOX.X was the first tech sector to recover at the
market bottom of October of 1998 and the first to roll over in
March of 2000.

Chart of the Semiconductor Sector Index:

The above chart shows a noticeable improvement in the SOX.X,
whereas the COMPX below is obviously still struggling.

Chart of the NASDAQ Composite:

Although I am in no way convinced that we have seen a bottom
in the NASDAQ, I do freely admit that more signs of a bottom
are showing up each and every day that we spend time at these
Death Valley-like levels.  For example, the average investor
is now looking to short stocks, the drugs are finally selling
off when tech goes up and yields on the 30-year bond look like
they have found support that dates back to late 1999.

Craig Seidler
Assistant Editor

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Definition of the Day

Lockup Period

A period of time in which an investor is restricted from selling a
 specified investment.

For the complete definition, please go to:

Tuesday's Split Announcements


Wednesday's Expirations by Payable Date

ChoicePoint Inc. (CPS) splits 3:2

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===================== Plays

The PLAY LEGEND: Play Recommendations.

Updates are just that - updates on continuing plays
New plays are brand new for the newsletter.
Closing plays are plays that we feel have lost the advantage.

You will see:
Stock Symbol, Company Name, Closing Price, (change for the week)
Picked at date and Change since picked

BoD = Board of Directors meeting
ADV = Average Daily Volume
dma = daily moving average

On the website we have very detailed profiles
for the stocks we play.  Please take the time to visit the site
and look up a stock's profile if you are interested in more





WFT - Weatherford International $56.80 +1.24 (+2.80)

Weatherford International. is a leading provider of oil and
natural gas drilling and production equipment and related
services. WFT has gained over 78% after hitting a relative low of
$31.75 on November 30th. The stock hit its all-time high on
Tuesday, and we believe that it could be ready to move even
higher. The oil drilling equipment sector currently has strong
momentum and WFT should continue to move with the rest of the
group. We are also looking for a split announcement with the
April earnings release or out of its next BoD meeting. The
company has enough shares for a split, with 250 million shares
authorized and 110 million shares outstanding, and the stock is
currently trading at historic split levels. The company's last
split was a 3:2 when the stock was trading in the $45-$50 range.
Going forward, WFT has support at Tuesday's intra-day low of
$55.50 with stronger support at $54.15, the 5-dma. There is light
resistance at Tuesday's intra-day high of $57.20. A move above
$57.20 could send the stock up to $58 or $60. Traders should be
looking for a bounce off of $55.50 or a breakout above $57.20 on
midday volume of at least 750,000 shares before opening new
positions. We plan to place stops at $52 to limit potential

Picked on March 6th @ $56.80
Change since picked +0.00
Stop Loss @ $52.00





BAX - Baxter International Incorporated $94.43 -0.77 (+1.10)

Baxter's big gamble in biosciences is giving investors more bang
for the buck. The firm recently reported fourth quarter earnings
per share growth of 15%, in-line with expectations. In addition,
sales growth was strong across all divisions and is accelerating.
The company has now recorded eight straight quarters of good
results and the outlook continues to be positive. What's more, it
looks like momentum players are starting to jump back on the
bandwagon. Looking at the chart, we're pleased with the early
week success of BAX shares, which broke sharply through
resistance on Monday with a strong advance of 4.09 points! The
stock normally trades around 1,949,590 shares based on a three-
month average, but Monday's breakout came on volume of only
1,511,000 shares. This is of some concern to us, so what we'd
like to see now is for volume to build as the stock attempts to
make further highs later in the week. With that said, we'll look
for initial resistance to come at the $95 mark, bolstered by the
all time high of $95.20. Look for a much swifter barrier to
follow at the century mark, which may be a good level to lock in
gains. Support will come at the February 21st intra-day high of
$93.16, with additional support at the 20-dma of $90.04. Look to
time entries when BAX shares bounce off of support or break above
$95 on volume of at least 900,000 shares by noon. We plan to
place stops at $98.50 to limit potential losses.

Picked on March 1st @ $92.61
Change since picked +1.82
Stop Loss @ $89.00


LTR - Loews Corporation $111.53 +1.02 (+2.42)

Loews Corporation, a holding company with majority stakes in the
insurance, cigarette, hotel, oil, and clock industries, is
hitting some resistance after reaching a new 52-week high of
$111.76 last week. On Tuesday, shares of LTR fell to an intra-day
low $109.90 before recovering later in session. The stock closed
at $111.53 on volume of 416,000 shares. LTR continues trend
higher as we approach the 2:1 split, payable on March 20th.
However, the stock is up 13% in just seven sessions so it may
need to consolidate before it moves higher. For now, LTR has
support at Monday's intra-day low of $110.10 with stronger
support at $109.43, the 5-dma. Resistance is holding steady at
Friday's intra-day high of $111.76 and then the 11/5/97 intra-day
high of $113.87. Traders may consider entry points on a bounce
off of $110.10 or a breakout above $111.76 on volume greater than
225,000 shares by noon. We have moved our stops up to $109 to
lock in profits.

Picked on February 27th @ $106.40
Change since picked +5.13
Stop Loss @ $109.00


GVA - Granite Construction  $35.08 -$0.02 (-$0.18)

This week Granite has hardly moved after finishing last week on
such a strong note. On Monday the stock traded on better than
twice its normal volume but only moved $0.75 for the day. Tuesday
saw 83,000 shares change hands, slightly higher than the three-
month average of 73,000. On a technical note, GVA may be in the
early stages of forming a flag or pennant formation. If this is
confirmed, we'll be watching for a breakout, as this split run
play moves closer to its ex-date in April. For now, we will be
watching for another break higher coupled with good volume. Those
traders considering a new play on GVA might look for volume to
exceed 60,000 by midday and the stock to climb through resistance
on a volume surge. A bounce off support might also trigger a
possible entry point. Since the follow through from last week's
new high has been weak, we are going to tighten our stop on this
play to $33.50 to lock in a profit should the stock turn south.

Picked on February 25th at $33.07
Change since picked +2.01
Stop Loss at $33.50


AYE - Allegheny Energy Incorporated $47.00 -0.01 (0.00)

As deregulation spreads across the country, Allegheny has a three-
pronged strategy to gain more share of the energy market and
increase its total plant production to 9,600 MW's by 2003. The
whole idea is to boost AYE's profitability by enlarging its
already sizeable generating business, offering bundled energy
services, and venturing into distributed power generation. Shares
of the Maryland-based company continued to form a long
consolidation base near the $47 mark today, and lost just one
cent during the trading session. During today's trading activity,
the stock gave a sharp intraday bounce off the 30-dma ($46.30)
and formed a bullish hammer candlestick formation. A hammer
formation frequently marks the bottom of a move and gives us hope
of a near-term turn around. Still, what has really captured our
attention has been the lightness in volume over the past three
trading days. The stock's three-month average volume is 682,363
shares per day. However, over the past three sessions, AYE has
logged an average of just 215,000 shares. We feel this is an
excellent sign of a lack of sellers in the stock. With this in
mind, we'll look for an upside move to encounter resistance at
the 10-dma of $47.50 and then at the $49 mark. Support comes in
at the 30-dma of $46.30, bolstered by intraday lows. Look for
entries to come when the stock breaks above resistance or bounces
swiftly from support on strong volume of 350,000 shares traded by
noon. We'll continue to hold a firm stop at $45.94.

Picked on February 22nd @ $48.22
Change since picked -1.22
Stop Loss @ $45.94


IGT - International Game Technology $56.59 +0.81 (+2.90)

Value investing in the technology sector was the dominant theme of
the day.  However, this did not stop momentum traders from
continuing to express interest in IGT.  The stock of this leader
in the casino gaming equipment business was bolstered by some
bullish comments from Robertson Stephens, which has raised its
earnings forecast for fiscal 2001 to $2.60 and to $3.00 for 2002.
Previous estimates were calling for profits of $2.55 and $2.85,
respectfully.  The research firm added that the stock could drive
past $70.00 over the next 24 months.  Earnings estimate increases
are exceedingly rare these days and IGT has been partially
rewarded for its ability to grow during these difficult economic
times.  IGT ignored the late day profit taking and closed right
at its newly established all-time high of $56.59.  This fact
means that there is an absence of overhead resistance, and a
positive open tomorrow could easily result in an extension of the
stock's gains.  The MACD survived a test and is now pointing
towards higher prices.  The OBV and Money Flow are noticeably
strong and also point towards an extension of the rally.  Please
note that we have been able to raise our stop to $54.75.
Momentum traders may want to continue adding positions as long
as IGT can stay above the support offered by the 5-DMA of $54.88.

Picked on February 20th @ $53.52
Change since picked +3.07
Stop Loss @ $54.75


PFGC - Performance Food Group Company $49.06 -2.19 (-4.63)

Performance Food Group Company has been under pressure over the
last two sessions thanks to a negative earnings announcement from
H.J. Heinz Co. (HNZ). On Tuesday, shares of PFGC fell to an
intra-day low of $48.50 on light volume of 46,000 shares. The
stock broke its upward trend on weak volume, so it may be able to
snap back if the volume returns. Hopefully, PFGC will not close
below the 20-dma as it attempts to put in a bottom. From a
technical standpoint, support is the 20-dma at $48.54 with
additional support at $47.13, the February 21st intra-day low.
Resistance has fallen to the 10-dma at $50.86 and then the 5-dma
at $52.10. A bounce off of $48.54 or a move above $50.86 on
midday volume of at least 100,000 shares may be possible entry
points. We are keeping our stops at $47 to limit potential

Picked on February 25th @ $50.13
Change since picked -1.07
Stop Loss @ $47.00


KRI - Knight-Ridder, Inc. $60.40 +0.95 (-0.35)

Knight-Ridder is a major player in the newspaper publishing and
news gathering business.  A relatively low P/E of 17.11 has
recently encouraged investing in this stock, which offers a
relative value and subsequent peace of mind for nervous
investors.  One of KRI's high profile properties, The San Jose
Mercury News, long known as the premier observer of the Silicon
Valley, announced plans to layoff an undetermined number of
employees and to restructure operations today.  This news
release, coupled with a market that has focused on technology
value investing, has caused KRI to trade flat so far this week.
 That said, this market has long been characterized by sector
rotations.  Therefore, KRI could have a good opportunity to rally
once there is some inevitable profit taking in the technology
sector.  KRI has excellent support provided by the 50-DMA of
$58.00.  The 52-week high of $61.25 is within striking distance.
 A move above this resistance, accompanied by midday volume over
250,000 shares, may prove to be fortuitous entry point.  OBV and
the Money Flow remain solid.  What's more, any positive move over
the next couple of days will likely result in a buy signal being
triggered by the MACD.

Picked on March 4th @ $60.75
Change since picked -0.35
Stop Loss @ $57.00


PII - Polaris Industries Inc. $47.70 +$0.44 (+$0.50)

Polaris Industries seems to be stuck in a rut. For the second day
in a row the stock channeled between $47 - $48, much like it has
done twice before in February. The trading volume has shrunk from
the three-month average of 93,000 to less than 54,000 both days
this week. Thus, with such low volume the stock has been unable
to conquer its immediate resistance level the 20-dma at $48.00.
The bullish engulfing pattern that we noted in Sunday's report
has yet to provide the favorable response we were looking to
achieve. Perhaps last month's downgrade from USB Piper Jaffray
along with the bearishness of the market has investors in a watch
and see mode. Regardless, we are looking for some solid news or
momentum to resurrect this split candidate play. From where PII
sits now possible new play opportunities might exist if the stock
were to bounce off support at $47.00 or move through the 20-dma
on volume exceeding 100,000 traded by 1:00 EST. If support cannot
hold then look for the stock to possibly test the 50-dma at
$44.88. If this were to occur then we'd be out of this play as we
are maintaining our stop loss on this play at $44.88.

Picked on February 13th at $48.70
Change since picked -1.00
Stop Loss at $44.88


BDX - Becton, Dickinson and Co. $34.87 -0.60 (-0.33)

Most of the stocks on the NYSE that are not technology related
were victims of some accelerating profit taking into the close.
BDX, a major medical supply company, was unable to buck this
trend, pushing the stock perilously close to our $34.50 stop.
Nevertheless, BDX looks very tempting on a technical basis.
Today's pullback, accompanied by relatively light volume of just
over 700,000 shares, has brought BDX down to a test of very
strong support provided by the 50-DMA, which closed today at
$34.78.  If we see some rotation out of the technology sector
into the medical stocks tomorrow, BDX may be offering us an
excellent buying opportunity at current prices.  The very light
downside volume has allowed the Money Flow and OBV to maintain
their bullish readings.  A resumption of the up trend could
easily occur if BDX can trade above the resistance offered by the
10-DMA, which closed today at $35.94.  Although we are close to
our stop, traders may want to enter new positions if BDX can open
flat to higher tomorrow.  If BDX trades above $36.00 with first
hour trading volume over 300,000 shares, the stock could possibly
be on its way towards a retest of the 52-week high of $39.25.

Picked on February 11th @ $37.03
Change since picked -2.16
Stop Loss @ $34.50


ELY - Callaway Golf Corporation $26.09 +0.82 (+1.09)

Callaway has made much headway in reining in costs over the past
two years. But, even more impressive, the company has grown
stronger due to steady sales growth from its new product
introductions and a recent venture into the premium golf ball
market. Despite the skepticism of some investors, ELY is
continuing with its ramp-up efforts to gain more share of the
golf ball market, which it hopes to attain through Callaway's
established brand name. As for our play, ELY shares kept climbing
on Tuesday, setting yet another new 52-week high of $93.48. The
run up came on excellent volume of 937,800 shares and leads us to
believe that the stock is still able to attract plenty of buying
at higher levels. Looking at the short-term technical indicators,
the MACD remains positive and the OBV continues its push to
higher highs. So, to that end, we'll expect to see the stock face
its next level of resistance at the $27 mark, followed by a more
difficult barrier at $30. Keep in mind that a sharp bounce from
either of these levels could provide a good exit signal. Support
is at the 5-dma of $25.14 and then the $25 mark. We'll look for
potential entry points to occur when ELY rallies through
resistance or reverses from support on good volume by midday of
at least 250,000 shares. Our raised stop of $24.75 will limit our
risk on the downside and help to lock in gains.

Picked on February 25th @ $23.99
Change since picked +2.10
Stop Loss @ $24.75


LMT - Lockheed Martin Corp. $37.38 -1.06 (-0.92)

Aerospace contractor Lockheed Martin has hit two consecutive 52-
week highs this week on news of a $43 million contract win with
the US Navy and a move by the FAA to skip the bidding process for
its long-distance air traffic control system and award the deal
to Lockheed. Unfortunately, shares of LMT sold off during
Tuesday's session on profit taking, with 1.73 million shares
changing hands. Despite the pullback, the stock remains in a
strong upward trend, although the MACD looks a bit stretched. In
the meantime, support is the 20-dma at $36.89 with stronger
support at $36.23, Friday's intra-day low.  Resistance remains at
the 8/23/99 intra-day high of $39.44 and then the 6/8/99 intra-
day high of $41.56. Consider starting new plays on a bounce off of
$36.89 or a breakout above $39.44 on volume greater than 800,000
shares by noon. We are keeping our stops at $35 as downside

Picked on February 4th @ $36.40
Change since picked +0.98
Stop Loss @ $35.00


PHCC - Priority Healthcare Corp. $43.38 -$0.43 (+$0.88)

Priority Healthcare, which specializes in pharmaceutical services
for patients with chronic diseases or genetic disorders, opened
the week with a new high. On Monday PHCC traded up to $44.25
intra-day on volume of 742,000 shares, which is 36% higher than
the three-month average of 545,000. PHCC is one of our newest
momentum plays; we began coverage on this play on Sunday.  The
stock has been performing well over the past few months and
Monday's activity proved to us that there is more profit
potential in PHCC. Traders might want to considered a position if
the stock can bounce off support at the 5-dma at $42.50 or move
through resistance at $44.25 on 400,000 shares traded by noon.
  Look for additional support from the NASDAQ Composite Index
(COMPX) and the CBOE Health Care Index (HCX.X) when considering
starting a new play. We will post a stop loss at $39.00 on this

Picked on March 4th at $42.50
Change since picked +$0.88
Stop Loss at $39.00


TX - Texaco Inc. $67.90 +1.10 (1.06)

Like a geyser of oil, Texaco exploded to a new 52-week high on
Tuesday. Texaco began the week on a strong note gapping open and
posting a new high. Tuesday the stock again posted another high
and confirmed its move with impressive volume. TX normally trades
on volume of 1.7 million shares, but Tuesday made the third day
in a row that TX traded on volume over 2.5 million shares. The
increased volume coupled with ongoing new highs is a sight we
like to see. Texaco has been a momentum play for a few weeks now
and has been a good performer considering the recent market
conditions. The company is moving ahead with its planned merger
with Chevron (CHV) and there is no reason to believe that further
gains aren't possible. Going forward, if you are considering a
new play on TX, the maker of outdoor all-terrain recreational
vehicles possible entry points might include a bounce off support
at the 5-dma at $66.37 or a move through resistance at today's
high of $68.36. Look for good volume over 1.2 million traded by
midday when considering new plays. Added support from the Dow
Jones Industrial Average (INDU) and the Oil Service Index (OSX.X)
would be helpful as well when thinking about a new position on
TX. We are going to tighten our stop on this play to $66.00 and
thus ensure ourselves a profit from this play.

Picked on February 18th at $64.90
Change since picked +3.00
Stop Loss at $66.00









Tuesday, March 6, 2001

IGT - International Game Technology $56.59 +0.81 (+2.90)

Tuesday's Comment:

Value investing in the technology sector was the dominant theme
of the day.  However, this little fact did not stop momentum
traders from bidding IGT higher.  The stock of this leader in the
casino gaming equipment business was bolstered by some bullish
comments from Robertson Stephens, which has raised its earnings
forecast for fiscal 2001 to $2.60 and 2002 to $3.00. Previous
estimates were calling for profits of $2.55 and $2.85,
respectfully.  The research firm added that the stock could drive
past $70.00 over the next 24 months.  Earnings estimate increases
are exceedingly rare these days and IGT has been rewarded for its
ability to grow during these difficult economic times.  IGT
ignored the late day profit taking and closed right at its newly
established all-time high of $56.59.  This fact means that there
is an absence of overhead resistance, and a positive open
tomorrow could result in an extension of the stock's gains.  The
MACD survived a test and is now pointing towards higher prices.
The OBV and Money Flow are noticeably strong and also point
towards an extension of the rally.  Please note that we have
raised our stop to $54.75.  Momentum traders may want to continue
adding positions as long as IGT can stay above the support
offered by the 5-DMA of $54.88.

Picked on February 20th @ $53.52
Change since picked +3.07
Stop Loss @ $54.75

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The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
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provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is
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staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
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