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Play Updates
Tuesday, March 28, 2000
New Plays
Splits | Candidates
Play Updates
Splits | Candidates
Dropped Plays
Splits | Candidates

NEW SPLIT RUN PLAYS

ALKS - Alkermes $108.50 -5.00 (+5.19)

Get out your rod and reel because we are going to do a little bottom fishing here. As a leader in developing drug delivery systems, ALKS got pummeled unmercifully during the Biotech correction. What is odd about the selloff is that ALKS was beaten down like a Genome stock and yet this Company is not involved in the patenting of genes. As long as new drugs are being developed, this Company appears poised for solid growth by providing innovative means for delivering these new drugs. Despite the pullback, ALKS has had a very nice run this year and the Company is rewarding shareholders with a 2:1 split, originally announced on February 28th. The payable date is set for May 12th, pending shareholder approval. A Shareholder Meeting will be held on April 28th. There will be a vote during the meeting to approve an increase in the number of authorized shares to 160 million from 80 million in order to effect the split. We expect to be out of this play before the earnings come out in the middle of May. With earnings due after the payable date, we stand to benefit from one of the most powerful momentum generators in the market; a split and earnings run combo. As for the stock recently, ALKS was nearly cut in half, going from just under the significant price point of $200 to just above the other major price point of $75. We do not think this is the type of split the Company was looking for but it does appear that the stock is looking to recover at least some of what it lost. Anyway, support has developed above $100 and it appears that the stock has gathered enough courage to work its way back to around $140, which would be a 50% retracement of the correction. At a minimum, we see the stock trading back up to challenge the 50-dma at $121. For seven straight days, the stock has been able to stay above the previous day's lows. This is a trend that we can follow. You can pick up the stock here as long as it does not violate the previous day's lows. If it keeps stair stepping in this manner, you may be able to use a trailing stop strategy.


Picked on Mar 28th @ $108.50
Change since picked 0.00


GE -General Electric Company $156.00 -1.94 (-3.06)

As GE goes, so go the Dow Industrials. Well, this stock has been skipping along like a newly born tech stock ever since the INDU found a bottom on March 15th. It's definitely not a newcomer though. GE is a diversified industrial behemoth with its fingers in a lot of different pots: appliances, lighting products, aircraft engines and plastics. GE also provides television, cable, Internet, distribution, engineering and financial services. GE also knows how to make money with these wide-ranging interests: total revenues for the fiscal year ended 12/31/99, rose 11% to $111.63 billion. Net income rose 15% to $10.72 billion. Revenues reflect increased global activities and growth in all businesses. Earnings also reflect an improved operating margin. Speaking of earnings, GE pre-announced on March 21st that they would beat estimates for the quarter. The Company announced their pending 3 for 1 split all the way back on 12/17/99, but we are waiting for the 4/26 shareholders meeting, at which time a payable date will be set. In the meantime, GE is expected to report earnings on or near April 6th (Not confirmed yet). It appears that recent weakness is a bull pennant formation, which is a consolidation of recent moves before traders are ready to challenge resistance at $160. We expect some good upside potential in the remaining days before earnings are released. There is support at the 5-dma of $156.75, with stronger support at $150. Set stops below the 10-dma of $149. We will keep you updated so that you can plan an exit in the session preceding the earnings report.


Picked on Mar 28 @ $156.00
Changed since picked 0.00


NEW SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAYS

QCOM - Qualcomm $154.81 +5.88 (+8.81)

Who can forget this stock's end of year rally; one of the greatest split runs in history. Such a huge runup into that 4:1 split has required a very long cooling off and consolidation period. Mark this day on your calendar; it could be the start for another stellar run. Boosting QCOM's shares today was the announcement that they have settled their lengthy patent infringement lawsuits with MOT. The agreement should allow both companies to start looking forward to their incredible wireless growth prospects. In fact, the two companies did more than just end the squabbling; they actually lengthened their cross-licensing agreements for CDMA technologies. See you later Lawyers and hello profits. With only 660 million shares outstanding and 3.6 billion authorized, QCOM has plenty of room to announce a split. We are looking for earnings to come out around April 25th, which would be an excellent time to announce another split. Ever since the last split, QCOM has been stuck in a very well defined trading range between $120 and $150. Today saw a substantial breakout above that range on almost two times ADV. The longer the consolidation, the bigger the move from the old range. Indications are that QCOM could make a nice move to $200 pretty quickly. What makes today's move even more impressive is that it occurred during a substantial NASDAQ selloff. The increase in relative strength is very encouraging. Support is at $150. If QCOM gaps up tomorrow, try and pick up the stock on a pullback.


Picked on Mar 28th @ $154.81
Change since picked 0.00



TXN - Texas Instruments Incorporated $178.88 -2.06 (+2.31)

Another semiconductor company on the move is TXN. The company produces semiconductor products such as analog integrated circuits, digital-signal processors, reduced instruction-set microprocessors, microcontrollers, digital-imaging devices, and application-specific integrated circuits. In addition, the company develops high-speed Internet connections. Foreign sales account for approximately 67% of the company's revenues. TX is the first, as of today, to demonstrate advanced package of calling features with session initiation protocol for DSP-based SIP phones. The Company plans to raise authorized shares at their April 20th shareholders meeting. This is a strong indication that the company intends to announce a split. Not only that, the last split announcement (there have been 3) came while the stock was trading near $150. The stock has trended steadily higher since the March 15th tech retracement. Current indecisiveness in the tech stocks has TXN consolidating in the $175 area, hopefully for another move up when buying moves back in earnest. For now, current resistance is $180, but a confirmation move would be over $185. Support is light at $175, better at $170. Enter the play in a rising market near support or on moves over resistance. Our target is the 4/20 shareholders meeting, followed by the 4/24 (estimated) earnings report.


Picked on Mar 28th @ $178.88
Changed since picked 0.00



XLNX - Xilinx Incorporated $84.88 -1.94 (+2.25)

For most of us, running a computer is as simple as understanding the software it runs on, but without its internal devices the computer ceases to exist. Xilinx, a leading provider of programmable logic devices, creates integrated circuits within a computer that allow it to perform internal logic operations. The chips that Xilinx creates not only allow computers to perform their necessary functions, but they also help electronic equipment manufacturers to save substantial amounts of time and money in logic programming. The company's business philosophy is to proactively broaden the markets they serve. Thus far, this strategy is having positive bottom line results. The company is expected to grow revenues by 40% and earnings by 30% through 2001. This tremendous level of growth has again pushed prices up near their previous split levels. Currently, there are not enough shares authorized to split the stock 2:1, but we believe an announcement may come on the April 20th earnings report. Now as for the performance of the stock, it has remained strong over the last couple of weeks, gaining about 20 points over this period. Monday, Merrill Lynch reiterated their 'buy' rating, with a $115 price target. Today's price action found support at the 5-dma of $83.98. This same level is marked by a previous high set back in the first week of March. Look for more support to be found at $80, bolstered by both the 10 and 20 dma's ($78.64 and $79.11). Bounces off support, when aligned with good volume, can present good buying opportunities. Any moves to the upside will have to break through the 52-week high of $88.44. A close above this level will create the set-up for the upside breakout, and will trigger our initial entry. Look for some consolidation over the next few days, and take advantage of buying opportunities off support levels. Unless a split announcement comes beforehand, look to exit the stock by the close of trading on 4/20, as earnings will be released after the close.


Picked on Mar 28th @ $84.88
Change since picked 0.00


SPLIT RUN PLAY UPDATES

AXP - American Express $152.50 +2.00 (-3.13)

There was some renewed interest in financial stocks today as Goldman Sach's Abbey Joseph Cohen came out and said she would reduce technology stock holdings. Money continues to flow from one sector to another. AXP has dropped below $150 two days in a row, but continues to be one of the stronger stocks in the DOW. The post rate rise rally may be waning. We need a catalyst to keep AXP going. Today's rotation from tech to financials within the DOW was a good start, but it remains to be seen if this will become a trend. In the meantime look to trade AXP as it bounces off of $148-$149, which it has done each of the past two days. Long term holders of the stock can hang in there as long as we stay above the $148 support. Look for some continued consolidation of the stock here in the mid-$150's. AXP has had a nice run and a little sideways action certainly is not unwarranted. If some new buyers come in, you can start buying AXP again once it takes out $159 resistance. If it were to take out that resistance then a test of the old highs at $169.50 would not be out of the question.


Picked on Mar 9th @ $122.75
Change since picked +29.75



CMRC - Commerce One $206.50 -7.31 (-17.69)

Revolutionizing the procedures by which businesses link buyers with suppliers, the goal of e-commerce is to provide more efficient methods through use of the Internet. Specifically, the goal of CMRC is to gain as many major clients as possible. Today, four of the leading defense and aerospace firms confirmed that they would indeed form an extensive marketplace on the Web for aerospace services and parts. The four companies involved in the announcement will be Boeing Co., Lockheed Martin Corp., Raytheon Co. and BAE Systems Plc. This e-business contract, which had been announced earlier, had already had its initial effect on the stock. After a half-hearted attempt to break above the $225 barrier earlier this week, prices declined to close at $205.94. This price decline is nearing strong support at $200, which is now bolstered by the 50-dma ($198.34). Look for a good bounce off this level to trigger an entry sign. Just below this mark, $196.75 should offer the next level of support. Set stops below $196.75 to protect against a meltdown. However, given the light volume consolidation over the last couple of days, we anticipate this correction to be short lived. If this does unfold and good volume pushes prices higher, watch for a break above the $225 mark to signal a price breakout. Positions should be exited ahead of the payable date of 4/19, as our normal policy suggests.


Picked on Mar 16th @ $222.52
Change since picked -16.52



ERICY - LM Ericsson $98.00 -1.63 (-4.81)

ERICY is really struggling, again, to stay above $100. Call it Vertigo but this stock really needs to get going if we are going to keep this play. The pullback was not that bad, considering the pressure on tech stocks today. We still believe that the wireless stocks have an excellent chance to remain at the leadership helm of this market. Ericsson is a leader in many areas of the wireless revolution and we feel that a pending 4:1 split should be able to help the stock outperform the other members of its group. We are still waiting for the Shareholders to approve the split and set the actual date during a meeting on March 31st. The stock fell today, despite two positive news items. The Company signed a contract to provide a broadband wireless IP access system for Tele2, an international operator. ERICY teamed up with White Pine Software (WPNE), a leading provider of multimedia conferencing applications for the Internet, to create the first commercially available instant messaging service with video capability. Hopefully traders will begin to start paying attention to all of the positive news coming from ERICY. We like the idea of picking up the stock here and down to support at $95. A close above $100 may be the right time to buy for momentum investors. We will be exiting this position before the earnings release at the end of April, unless the payable date comes earlier.


Picked on Mar 26th @ $102.81
Change since picked -4.81



EXDS - Exodus Communications, Inc. $162.25 -5.56 (-11.06)

There is a good reason why EXDS shows up in the "must have" stock lists of many 5-star mutual funds. EXDS is a leading provider of complex Internet hosting for enterprises (large operations) with mission-critical Internet operations. Today, the company announced it has teamed up with Netergy Network (EGHT), a provider of Internet protocol telephony, to provide voice over Internet protocol networks at EXDS' Internet data centers. As Star Trek's Worf used to say: "Today is a good day to die." Substitute "buy" for "die" and you know what the bargain hunters were doing today. EXDS opened at $168.71 and was poised to go higher until it was swept away in the Abby Cohen induced broad market downturn. The volume, 2.4M, was lower than usual suggesting that there wasn't much conviction in the sell-off today. Set stops well below the 10-dma of $157. Trendline support meets psychological support in the neighborhood of $150, so that should be solid. Resistance is still at the high of $175. Use a bounce off any of the support levels or a breakout above $175 on strong volume to start a new play.


Picked on Mar 19th @151.25
Changed since picked +11.00



MFNX - Metromedia Fiber Network, Inc. $101.13 +1.63 (+3.06)

Today, MFNX, a fiber-optic carrier, formed a venture with telecom giant Lucent (LU). They have teamed up to form GeoVideo Networks, which will build a video network designed for the Internet, in other words Internet Video. The stock traded to a record close after the news, on average volume. Since the last split, the price of the stock has more than doubled. The rally showed a strong technical basis today, in face of the broad sell-off in the NASDAQ market. Support is now light at the 5-dma of $97, better at the 10-dma near $92. Place stops below the 10-dma, at about $91. The new resistance is today's intraday high of $102.19.


Picked on Mar 26th @ $98.06
Change since picked +3.06



MOT - Motorola, Inc. $164.00 +0.50 (+0.44)

With so many high techs moving lower in the early part of this week, MOT seems to be attracting a little "safety" cash. The move higher was not that impressive but the immunity from selling is very encouraging. We do not expect a meltdown in the markets this week. In fact the pullback the past two days has been healthy. Think of it as the market gathering a little strength before the earnings season. MOT will probably have a very good quarter and we look for the stock to continue to move higher into the April 18th announcement. As always, we will be dropping this play no later than just before the big news event. Speaking of news, some of the strength in MOT today can be attributed to the fact that the Company has reached a settlement agreement with QCOM, effectively ending their litigation with one another. The two companies really kissed and made up by not only agreeing to stop suing each other but also to extend their CDMA cross-licensing agreements. Also helping the stock this week were two new product offerings. Technically, the stock is at a crossroads with an upside bias. MOT's shares have been establishing a base roughly between $160 and $165. The move above the high end of the base was encouraging today. If the market had not been under pressure today, we figure that MOT would have had a nice follow through on the breakout. Look for it to happen when the market strengthens. Otherwise be cautious if MOT drops below support at the low end of the range at $159.38.


Picked on Mar 16th @ $151.75
Change since picked +12.25



NOK - Nokia Corp. $225.88 -4.13 (+2.38)

The build out of wireless technology has allowed Nokia to generate a stream of news releases, as new products come to market. The steady flow of these positive announcements has once again contributed to more gains in Nokia's stock. Earlier today, Nokia announced that they would be providing the first Internet enabled phone in Japan. The NM502I, will be marketed jointly with Japan's largest mobile phone operator, DoCoMo. The phone will offer bilingual (Japanese/English) operations and will provide instant access to the Internet. Although this news announcement is very positive for the company, the stock remained little changed on the day, closing down 1.63%. On Monday, the stock generated a buy signal, when prices crossed above the $226.50 mark and continued higher on good volume. Prices continued to run up to the $233.38 level, before taking a break and closing back at our support level (previously resistance) of $130. Today, the stock broke through this support level and fell to its next support at the 5-dma ($223.68), before finishing off at $25.88. If prices continue to consolidate, more support will likely be found at $220 (previous resistance) and again at $210, propped by a 30-dma ($208.50). Since volume was able to remain relatively light today, there still remains a good chance that prices may continue to resume their upward run. If this scenario does unfold, look for a price close above $230 to signal our initial entry. Above this level, prices may find more resistance at $240. Target your buys when prices bounce off support or run through resistance. Plan to exit your positions prior to payable date of 4/7.


Picked on March 5th @ $221.00
Change since picked +4.88



NT - Nortel Networks $140.56 -2.50 (-0.69)

Today, NT announced a new B2B venture, following up on their acquisition of Clarify, a customer relationship management software maker. It's called Clarify eBusiness Applications Unit and is designed to build B2B trading exchanges and manage customer data. NT is a leader in the telephony, wireless, optical and ebusiness markets. NT and its subsidiaries produce telecommunication equipment that is sold to telephone companies, cable-television companies, corporations, governments and universities. This stock is a virtual mutual fund of the leading technology sectors and recent performance has outpaced the COMPX. After five consecutive 'up' days, NT began Tuesday at a fairly good opening price of $142.19, but closed down 2.5 points on volume of 4.9M, which is below average, so we're not concerned. Resistance is at $144.19 (Friday's intraday high). Support is at the 5-dma of $139. Three days of consolidation at $140 looks highly positive. Place stops under $130 to limit losses. Use a bounce off any of the support levels to jump in the play. A payable date has not been announced, but earnings are scheduled for April 25th, after the market. We will step aside for earnings, unless momentum dries up for the stock in the interim.


Picked on March 23rd @ $137.25
Changed since picked +3.31



NXTL - Nextel $150.81 -6.56 (-3.38)

Nextel continues to consolidate as the market searches for direction. The stock has been bouncing around between $150 and $160 for the last five sessions. The stock was moving higher early on Tuesday morning but could not hold on to the gains due to weakness in the broader markets. Shares of NXTL finished down $6.38 on average volume. On a positive note, WR Hambrecht & Co. initiated coverage of NXTL with a 'buy' rating and set a price target of $200. The 2:1 stock split, payable on 6/6, is not really the driving force right now so this stock should continue to trade with market sentiment until we get closer to the payable date. The Company is expected to announce earnings on 4/26 and this should give the stock a push in the short-term. For now, there is support at the 10-dma, currently at $150. Stronger support is the 20-dma, now at $146. Set stops under $146 as protection. Resistance is $160 and then $165. Look for a bounce off of $150 or a breakout above $160 on heavy volume to start new plays. Confirm market direction and sector momentum before opening new positions. The split is still far away so we may exit before the April earnings release and re-assess the stock after the announcement.


Picked on Mar 21st @ $148.63
Change since picked +2.19



PWR - Quanta Services $60.00 -3.00 (-5.00)

Quanta Services hit an all-time high Monday. Shares of PWR traded as high as $70.25 before hitting resistance and reversing direction, closing the day with a $2 loss. The stock continued to slide on Tuesday as the market drifted lower. We are less than 2 weeks away from the 3:2 split, payable on 4/7. The stock closed just above the 10-dma ($59.65) Tuesday, which is a good sign. There is light support at the 10-dma with stronger support on the 15-dma at $56. Place stops under $56 as protection. Resistance is now at $65 with heavier resistance at $70. Open new positions on a bounce off of $56 or a breakout above $65. Start new plays on strong volume, only in a rising market. Exit no later than 4/6, the day before the payable date.


Picked on March 23rd @ $62.00
Change since picked -2.00


SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY UPDATES

BRCM - Broadcom $222.69 -10.31 (-10.31)

SG Cowen started coverage of Broadcom on Monday. They rated the stock a 'buy' and said that they expected 45-50% annual earnings growth. Shares of BRCM soared on the news, hitting an intra-day high of $248.38 in Monday's session. However, the stock took back all of the day's gains by the close. BRCM continued to struggle on Tuesday along with many of the high-flying tech stocks. Broadcom is expected to announce earnings in mid-April (18th estimated) the also have an Annual Shareholder Meeting on 4/27. The shareholders will be voting on an increase in authorized shares and we are hoping for a split announcement either with earnings or after the Annual Meeting. In addition, if there is any 'window dressing' influence yet to occur this week, this is one of the names likely to get some attention from portfolio managers. In the meantime, light support is holding at $220. Stronger support is $215. Set stops under $215 to lock in gains. Resistance is $229 and then the 5-dma at $235. Open new positions on a bounce off of $220 or a move above $235 on heavy volume. Confirm market direction and sector momentum before starting new plays. Plan to exit in front of earnings or in the trading session following the Annual Meeting, depending on the timing of the earnings release.


Picked on Mar 16th @ $212.81
Change since picked +9.88



C - Citigroup, Inc. $61.00 +0.94 (+0.44)

Just when Financials looked like they were fizzling out after a nice run following the rate hike, Abby Joseph Cohen, the highly influential market analyst, came out and said that she is reducing the stock portion of her model portfolio by 5%. She further said that she feels that tech stocks should no longer be over-weighted and her favorite sector is now Financials. Bottom line is, people listen to her, and Citi had a nice up day in the face of some light DOW selling. We will see if some real money starts moving into this sector due to the possibility that Cohen might have started a trend among money managers. We will still be cautious due to the possibility that rate fears, Financial stocks worst enemy, may creep back into this market. The agreement reached by OPEC to increase oil production should help to ease some inflation fears and that could cause some bullishness for the shares of Citigroup. $58-$59 support was tested and it held the past two days. Pullbacks into this area are providing good buying opportunities. Momentum traders may wish to wait for a break above $62.38 resistance before going long. We will be exiting this position before the earnings announcement on April 18th. This is an estimated date. We will be able to confirm that earnings date soon.


Picked on Mar 23rd @ $61.69
Change since picked -0.69
 


EBAY - eBay $223.81 -16.00 (-19.94)

There was no Yahoo! (YHOO) merger announced and shares of EBAY were hit after soaring on the rumor late last week. The stock was down almost $20 as the rumors were put to rest for now. Despite the current pullback, EBAY is holding up rather well, staying above strong support in the midst of a market-wide sell-off. The Company has scheduled their earnings release for 4/25 after the bell and we are looking for a split announcement with the earnings. They already have enough shares to split so they could announce a split before earnings. Until then, support is now the 10-dma at $220 with stronger support at the 15-dma, now up to $212. Set stops under $212 to limit losses. Resistance has also dropped down to the 5-dma at $232. Major resistance stands at $240. Look for a bounce off of $220 or a breakout above $232 to start new plays. Open new positions on strong volume, only in a rising market. Plan to exit in front of earnings on 4/25.


Picked on Mar 19th @ $218.94
Change since picked +4.88



EMC - EMC Corporation $139.56 -3.69 (-2.44)

EMC Corporation has remained the leader in networking hardware and software storage services, despite having faced stiff competition in this sector. The Company's aggressive approach to business has allowed it to flourish in an already strong market for enterprise computing data storage. An interesting new area of growth for the Company has come from today's e-business revolution, which is creating tremendous growth in the network storage department. This leadership position in the fast growing sector of storage management helped EMC's stock to become the largest gainer for the 90's on the New York Stock Exchange. By and large this week, the stock has remained somewhat flat, ending today down 2.57%. Today's decline did introduce the stock to its first level of support, the 5-dma of $139.36. Given a bounce from this level, the next area of resistance should come at the 52-week high mark of $145.44. With greater strength, a run through this level will likely meet stiff resistance at the buck fifty mark. Potential buys can be triggered with strong moves through resistance. If steady selling in the general market persists and EMC furthers its decline, we anticipate strong support to be present at $132, which is now reinforced by a 10-dma of $133.06. With continued selling, the price should also find support at $125, propped up by the 30-dma ($125.37). Though we remain optimistic about EMC's upside potential, its important to recognize strong bounces off support as possible entries. The split announcement could come with the mid-April earnings release, which we plan to exit ahead of.


Picked on Mar 21st @ $135.13
Change since picked +4.44



GLW - Corning Incorporated $204.81 -4.19 (-9.56)

The tremendous potential of fiber optics over standard wire and cable have been directly tied to the major investing shift from old economy to new. The long string of victories for these stocks gives witness to the popularity of this shift. As for a relative new comer to the fiber optics industry, Corning's impressive stock returns match the rest of the group. Sitting just below a 52-week high range, GLW has declined slightly over the last 3 trading days on light volume (2.0m v. 4.0m). The light volume is a good sign that selling may be drying up. Though the weak volume decline still managed to ignore the $205 (5-dma) support level, more support can still come at the double century mark ($200). Three major dma's (10,20, and 30), are working their way up to this level, setting up the likelihood of a bounce off of $200. Still, further down, more support resides at $195. If prices are able to reverse from current levels, creating a hard bounce off support, then look for resistance at the stocks 52-week high of $226.44, though the 5-dma ($210.43) could offer initial resistance. Buy on strength through resistance, when accompanied by good volume (2.8m or higher). Look for a split announcement to come out of the Shareholder's Annual Meeting on 4/27. We will exit after the meeting if we get the split announcement


Picked on Mar 24th @ $214.38
Change since picked -9.57



GS - Goldman Sachs Group $113.25 +1.25 (+8.06)

When Abby Joseph Cohen, chairman of GS' investment policy committee, speaks, the market listens. She reduced the stock exposure in her model portfolio by 5% (from 70% to 65%) and sent the markets tumbling today, except for many of many of the financial stocks (she likes those). GS is a global investment banking and securities firm, headquartered in N.Y., with offices throughout the world's financial centers. Cohen is one of the most influential analysts on Wall Street. The 50% price increase of GS shares since February and the strength in the financial sector in general make this a stock to notice. Monday, GS fell in profit taking and that selling action carried over into Tuesday morning's trading. Tuesday, the stock started low and gained momentum throughout the day, which is a bullish sign. Support is now the 20-dma at $108.81. Resistance is at $120, then Friday's intraday high of $128. Initiate new positions near support levels or on moves over resistance. Set stops well below the 20-dma of $108. We expect the split announcement before the June earnings release. Plan to exit after the announcement.


Picked on Mar 26th @ 121.31
Change since picked -8.06



HWP - Hewlett-Packard $140.69 -5.50 (-1.69)

Today's highly competitive arena for technology based businesses is forcing companies to find new areas of growth. Hewlett-Packard has recently committed to shareholders that they will set their sights on rapid growth technologies, specifically, the Internet. Upholding their promise, HWP announced on Monday that it had created a Web Infrastructure E-service to power B2B e-commerce. This e-commerce solution will allow companies to conduct Web- centric business through the use of HWP's Internet utility computing model. In the past, companies may have been required to design, create and manage their own B2B Web Infrastructure. Instead, HWP will service the technology, management and global capacities required for B2B transactions. For this service, the customer will pay monthly, based upon the amount of use. The news offered the shares some strength, but not ample enough for prices to close out of their consolidation range ($138-$147). From yesterday's high of $148.88, the stock continued its sell off today, falling down to our support level of $140. Coming off its low to close slightly higher at $140.69, the stock has near term resistance in the $141 range. This resistance area is the location of the 10 and 20-dma's ($141.26 and $141.71), which are converging. If prices run higher, expect to see some support at the top of the consolidation range ($147). A close above this level will set the stage for the next run. As for support, $140 is still holding up well. Beyond this level, $135 should provide further support, given a price break through $140. If price retracements do occur, look for solid bounces off support to open new plays. The announced split may come before the mid-May earnings report, if not earlier.


Picked on Mar 16th @ $133.00
Change since picked +7.69



INTC - Intel Corporation $135.69 -7.00 (-3.38)

As the number of computer related transactions continue to soar, Intel stands ready, willing and able to deliver. After facing fierce competition in the highly popular sub-$1000 PC computer market, Intel has remained committed in keeping its market share intact. The Celeron 533 processor is the fastest chip in the sub- $1000 range and represents a new standard of processing speed that INTC has established in this market. As for the stock, INTC remains just outside of its 52-week high range. From its 3-month breakout to new highs, INTC has remained in a tight consolidation range over the last 5 days. Volume over this consolidation has been decreasing, which leads us to believe that fewer sellers are willing to cash-out at lower prices. The stock found its first real support level at its daily low of $135.13, which is the location of the 10-dma ($135.07). If the stock can hold this support level and give a strong bounce, then look for prices to find future resistance at the 52-week high of $145.38. Look to find more resistance further up at the buck fifty mark. We will look to open new positions on a price advance through these resistance points, when accompanied by good volume. On the other hand, if the stock holds no support at its 10-dma, then look for a sizeable drop to the $125 mark, bolstered by the 20-dma ($126.37). When price bounces off support are combined with good volume ($25m or better), then a potential entry will be signaled. Earnings on 4/18 may contain our split announcement, which we plan to exit in front of.


Picked on Mar 19th @ $129.88
Change since picked +5.81



MCRL - Micrel $109.25 -3.98 (-0.63)

Micrel had a good early pop Monday morning, hitting an intra-day high of $114.50 early in the session. On Tuesday, the stock reversed all of Monday's gains, leaving the stock down slightly on the week. The good news is that MCRL managed to stay above its 5- dma, leaving the upward trend in tact. Micrel is expected to announce earnings on 4/27 before the bell and we are hoping for a split announcement in conjunction with earnings release. As for the stock, support is now the 10-dma at $105 with stronger support at $100. Set stops under $100 to minimize losses. There is resistance at $115 and then $120. Open new positions on a bounce off of $106 or a breakout above $111 on heavy volume. Confirm market sentiment and sector direction before starting new plays. We recommend an exit in front of earnings unless they announce a split before the earnings release. If this occurs, plan to exit the following trading day.


Picked on Mar 19th @ $105.94
Change since picked +3.33



MER - Merrill Lynch $107.75 -1.50 (-6.00)

Things have slowed a bit for MER as the momentum for brokerage stocks has generally subsided in the wake of all of the great earnings reports last week. Couple that with a small wave of profit taking in the overall market and it is not surprising that MER has come off of its recent highs. We still fully expect a split announcement and if we are lucky, we will get it before the Company's earnings release date of April 17th. This is an approximate date. We will be able to confirm the date shortly. Merrill Lynch raised $1.1 billion during the two-week window for investing in their new Internet Strategies Fund. The fund is now closed to new investors. Although failure to hold minor support at $110 has caused us to be wary of MER, the stock did bounce nicely off of the $105 support. A flat opening could be a good buying opportunity. In fact we are buyers all the way down to the psychologically important $100 level. Be careful of a move below $100 as there are probably a lot of stops there. The uptrend is still intact and we fully expect MER to have a nice earnings anticipation run.


Picked on Mar 23rd @ $109.94
Change since picked -2.19



SNDK - SanDisk $131.63 -13.44 (-0.94)

SanDisk filed its preliminary proxy for its Annual Shareholder meeting last Friday. The meeting is scheduled for 5/11 and the Company is looking to increase the number of authorized shares from 125 million to 400 million. The news hit the tape on Monday and the stock took off, rising to an intra-day high of $146 and closing less than $1 below the day's high. Tuesday was the exact opposite, as SNDK fell $13.44 on light volume. The Company is expected to announce earnings on 4/19 (First Call) and we are looking for a split to come out with the earnings release. The Annual Meeting gives us additional confidence that a split is coming in the near future. Until then, support is the 10-dma at $126 with strong support at $120. Set stops under $120 as protection. Resistance is $138 and then $146. Use a bounce off of $126 or a breakout above $138 on strong volume to start new plays. Confirm market direction and sector momentum before opening new positions. Exit in front of earnings.


Picked on Mar 21st @ $130.00
Change since picked +1.63



YHOO - Yahoo!, Inc. $195.00 -5.75 (+1.00)

Well the weekend came and went without a widely rumored merger announcement between Yahoo! and ebay. Yahoo!'s announced acquisition of Arthas.com makes a merger agreement between these two Internet giants less likely. Arthas.com is a provider of consumer-to-consumer electronic payment services. ebay has launched a competing service called Billpoint. It seems unlikely that Yahoo! would buy Arthas.com if they were planning on merging with eBay. We do expect to see some sort of partnering agreement along the lines of the one between AOL and eBay. Such a partnership would be very beneficial for both companies. Yahoo! announced that they have selected Shutterfly to help build the company's digital photography services. Yahoo!'s new service will be the plainly named, Yahoo! Photos. Yesterday, Yahoo! launched a mobile Internet service in the UK whereby people can now access their e-mail and news items from their wireless handsets. Yahoo! continues to build a very bullish looking flag pattern. The second the NASDAQ turns up we fully expect Yahoo! to break out to the upside. The trigger price for a nice rally could be the high end of the recent range at $205.63. We would continue to buy the stock at favorable prices all the way down to support at $185 in anticipation of an earnings expectation rally. We will be exiting this position no later than just before the April 5th (after the market) earnings date. A breaking news item that came out right when we were going to press states that Yahoo! is now facing lawsuits from three video game manufacturers. Sega, Nintendo and Electronic Arts have filed an injunction, claiming that Yahoo knowingly sells illegal and counterfeit games on its website. Look for details on the news wires tomorrow.


Picked Mar 21st @ $191.75
Change since picked +3.25


SPLIT RUN PLAY DROPS

NEWP - Newport Corporation $144.50 -5.56 (-11.50)

On Monday, NEWP gave what looks to be a final attempt to break through resistance at $160. On a light volume day, NEWP gave few indications that it had the strength to close above this important level. As such, prices confirmed their weakness and fell back at the end of the day. Today, trading was marked by increased volume as prices fell briskly through support at $150. This gave us an indication that a pull back may be eminent, signaling our exit from this play. This stock, along with many others in the volatile fiber optics sector, provides good momentum plays. We'll keep you posted on future plays as they present themselves.


Picked on Mar 23rd @ $150.88

Profit/Loss = -6.38 (-4%)
Best Profit = +9.57 (+6%)


SPLIT CANDIDATE PLAY DROPS

EFNT - $158.00 -13.56 (-11.00)

Today EFNT, the high-speed modem maker, fell 8% when it announced that it would acquire Netscreen Technologies, a closely held Internet security equipment maker, for $905M in stock. EFNT is a Dallas based company with DSL technology that enables high-speed Internet connections on copper phone lines. We are dropping this play today, set a tight stop below the current level and look for any upside move to close out the position. The stock violated the important support level of the 10-dma of $160 indicating that the stock may move lower to the consolidation area near $150.


Picked on Mar 23 @ $180.06

Profit/Loss = -22.06 (-12%)
Best Profit = +6.75 (+4%)



RIMM - Research In Motion Limited $126.50 -12.50 (-21.25)

RIMM simply could not hold on to its gains from last week and we have to drop this play accordingly. Hopefully, you were able to hold onto some of your profits before the break below the $135 support. There was not any negative news contributing to the selloff. Second tier technology stocks were hurt harder than the big caps during this two-day NASDAQ selloff.


Picked on Mar 16th @ $139.06

Profit/Loss -12.56 (-9%)
Best Profit +11.07 (+8%)


 


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